Incident by incident: Was it a bad weekend for VAR in the Premier League?

Two to four errors, which is not a good weekend.
BBC Sport's estimate of how many VAR errors the panel may log from one Premier League round.
Mark

Why does this weekend matter when the season had been going so well?

Mimi

Because the baseline was good. Two errors in eight rounds, against six at this point last year. One round could add up to four.

Luke

Worth saying that's BBC Sport's estimate. The panel hasn't voted yet.

Mark

Which call is the most clear-cut?

Mimi

Havertz at Arsenal. The foul came before the offside offence, so the law points to a penalty even though it feels strange.

Luke

And that's BBC's reading of the law, though they say the panel is likely to agree. Likely isn't confirmed.

Mark

What about Bogle's tackle on Tel?

Mimi

It's the subjective one. He caused it with his supporting foot, but it was painful. Ex-pros are split.

Luke

So the outcome may depend on who's on the panel that week. That's an unknown, not a finding.

Mark

And Barry's goal?

Mimi

There seems to be a handball deviation, but the VAR lacked the super-zoom, which takes minutes to calibrate. A split vote is possible.

Luke

Right, so two to four is a range, not a prediction of a specific number.

  • Two near-certain VAR errors at Arsenal and Coventry, where penalties were withheld in moments that the panel is likely to condemn.
  • A goal at Everton hangs in doubt, with a handball deviation that the VAR could not confirm without a super-zoom tool that takes minutes to prepare.
  • Leeds' Jayden Bogle escaped a card despite a painful challenge, and the panel's split verdict may hinge on which former players sit in judgment.
  • The weekend's error count could land anywhere between two and four, a turn for the worse after an encouraging start to the season.

In the Premier League's long argument with its own referees, a single weekend has tested the promise that video review would end the injustice of human error. Across a round of games that brought disputed penalties, hair-pulling, and a goal that hung on the thinnest deviation, BBC Sport has tried to sort which decisions the Key Match Incidents Panel will judge as mistakes. Its estimate of two to four errors reminds us that technology has narrowed the room for mistakes without abolishing the judgment behind every whistle. The final tally will be set by the panel's votes, and in that count the league will read whether its season-long gains in accuracy are holding.

Before this weekend, VAR in the Premier League looked unusually healthy. The Key Match Incidents Panel had logged just two errors across the first eight rounds, down from six at the same stage last year.

Then a round arrived in which nearly every top-flight match produced a disputed call. The clearest likely mistake came at Arsenal, where Kai Havertz was brought down in the area. The penalty was withheld because Havertz was judged offside, yet the foul came first, and the law points toward a spot kick. At Everton, Coventry's Caleb Yirenkyi appeared to have his hair pulled inside the box with no penalty given. Hair-pulling is no longer a red-card offence, but a clear yank is still a wrong call, and the panel is expected to say so.

Other incidents are murkier. Thierno Barry's goal for Everton showed a handball deviation, but the VAR had no super-zoom tool and could not confirm it in time, so the panel may not back an intervention. At Leeds, Bogle's challenge on Mathys Tel was painful but caused with his supporting foot, leaving a split verdict that may depend on which former players sit on the panel. Most other calls, including Manchester United's penalty and goal against Aston Villa and Brentford's red card at Brighton, look defensible.

BBC Sport counts two near-certain errors and two possible ones. The panel's votes will decide whether the weekend ends with two, three, or four.

Before this weekend, the numbers on VAR in the Premier League looked unusually healthy. The Key Match Incidents Panel, which reviews every contentious decision and votes on whether it was right or wrong, had logged just two VAR errors across the first eight rounds of the season. At the same point last year the tally was six.

Then came a round in which almost every top-flight game produced a disputed call. BBC Sport went through most of them, though it says there were too many to cover all, and tried to judge which ones the panel is likely to add to the error column.

The clearest likely mistake came at Arsenal, who beat Hull 1-0. Kai Havertz was pulled down in the area by Nobel Mendy. VAR Michael Oliver sent referee Farai Hallam to the pitchside monitor, but the penalty was not given because Havertz had been offside. BBC Sport's reading is that the foul came before any offside offence, so the penalty should have been awarded. However odd it feels to reward a player in an offside position, the law says otherwise, and the panel is likely to log an error.

The second is at Everton, who beat Coventry 3-1. Coventry's Caleb Yirenkyi appeared to have his hair pulled inside the area by James Tarkowski, with no penalty given. The interpretation of hair pulling was relaxed this season, so it would not be a red card, but BBC Sport saw a yank of the hair and expects the panel to call it an incorrect decision. Two other Everton moments are less clear. Vitalii Mykolenko's clip on Taiwo Awoniyi came just before the line, so no penalty is the likely verdict. Thierno Barry's 61st-minute goal was checked for handball, and the VAR found no conclusive evidence. Yet there appears to be a deviation, and BBC Sport thinks the goal probably should have been ruled out. The VAR did not have the super-zoom tool, which takes a few minutes to calibrate and is not available instantly, so the panel might not support an intervention. The same applied to a Crystal Palace goal against Nottingham Forest, and BBC Sport expects a split vote.

At Leeds, who beat Tottenham 1-0, Jayden Bogle fouled Mathys Tel. Referee John Brooks gave a free-kick but no card, and VAR Tony Harrington did not send him to the monitor. It was a hard call because Bogle caused the foul with his supporting foot rather than his challenging one, though it was a painful challenge and some think it was a red card. The outcome may depend on which former players sit on the panel, since ex-pros are split.

Most other incidents are expected to be judged correct. Manchester United's 4-4 draw with Aston Villa included a 16th-minute penalty for Boubacar Kamara's foul on Matheus Cunha, where replays showed first contact on the Brazilian's foot. It also included Patrick Dorgu's 96th-minute equaliser, after possible contact by Senne Lammens on Zion Suzuki. With a higher bar for intervention and minimal contact, not disallowing it is unlikely to be ruled an error.

Elsewhere, Igor Thiago's red card for Brentford at Brighton, where he caught Chema Andres's head with his forearm, may seem soft, but the law treats a strike to the head as a red unless the force is negligible. Crystal Palace's stoppage-time penalty against Liverpool, for Milos Kerkez's foul on Dario Osorio, was more of a 50-50 clash than last season's Saliba-on-Pedro case and might be called an on-field error short of the VAR threshold. Cole Palmer's penalty appeal at Sunderland has no conclusive evidence of initial contact inside the area. Newcastle's goal at Fulham was rightly ruled out for Yoane Wissa's foul on Timothy Castagne, despite Matthias Jaissle's perplexity afterwards.

BBC Sport's tally is two near-certain errors, the Arsenal and Coventry penalties, and two possible ones, Barry's goal and Bogle's challenge. That means two to four errors in a weekend, which it calls not a good one. The panel's votes will settle the number.

Even though it feels wrong to reward a player in an offside position with a penalty, the law says otherwise and this is likely to be a mistake.
— BBC Sport, on the Arsenal incident
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