Two leaders who once shared a lunch of burek in a provincial Serbian town, and who had seemed entrenched for over a decade, have each been pushed from power within a single year. The turning point was less a single event than a slow realisation across two societies that their voices could not be ignored, carried forward by young people who learned from one another how to guard the ballot. What comes next, whether prosecutions or a quieter reckoning, will show whether this moment marks a lasting change or only an interlude.
How Serbia's Vučić Fell the Way Hungary's Orbán Did: Two Strongmen, Two Youth-Led Upsets
A 1 November 2024 canopy collapse at Novi Sad railway station killed 16 people, becoming the catalyst for Serbia's student movement.
Both leaders looked invincible. Then society found its voice.
Mark
What's the core of this story? Two leaders falling in the same year?
Mimi
Partly, but it's the method too. Hungarian monitors trained Serbian students over the summer, before the election was even called, and then 70 of them worked in Vojvodina on election day.
Mark
What did that training actually involve?
Mimi
Mapping 'infected' polling districts, where past results for the governing party looked suspiciously high, then putting 20 to 30 volunteers at the threatened stations.
Luke
Worth noting that the deterrent claim is Péter Klemm's belief. He's an activist and a participant, so it's a firsthand account, not an independent finding that fraud was prevented.
Mark
And the masked groups he describes?
Mimi
The source says similar groups were photographed at many polling stations and blocked by monitors. Klemm identifies them as Vučić supporters.
Luke
That identification is his. The reporting doesn't independently establish who they were.
Mark
What about the phone calls between Vučić and Orbán?
Mimi
Speculation says Vučić called Orbán twice and was talked out of using force. Vučić denies the first call but admits the later one.
Luke
So the idea that Orbán counselled restraint is unconfirmed. Orbán declined to comment, and we only know a later call happened because Vučić said so.
Mark
And what comes next?
Mimi
Possible prosecutions of both men for corruption and abuse of power, with JTOK and NVVH potentially cooperating.
Luke
'May face' is the operative phrase. No charges are reported.
O Pulso
- Orbán fell in April, and within months Vučić conceded on election night at the same minute, 21:30, as if the two stories were running in step.
- Masked groups gathered near polling stations from late afternoon, and volunteers filmed, deployed mobile teams, and stood their ground to deter them.
- Monitors trained in Hungary flagged 'infected' districts in advance, turning suspicion into a map that guided where help was needed most.
- Speculation of a late-night phone call between the two leaders has added a tense undercurrent, while Magyar's call to the students signalled a new alliance.
- Corruption and abuse-of-power prosecutions loom for both former leaders, with prosecutors in Belgrade and Budapest possibly working together.
Two leaders who once shared a lunch of burek in a provincial Serbian town, and who had seemed entrenched for over a decade, have each been pushed from power within a single year. The turning point was less a single event than a slow realisation across two societies that their voices could not be ignored, carried forward by young people who learned from one another how to guard the ballot. What comes next, whether prosecutions or a quieter reckoning, will show whether this moment marks a lasting change or only an interlude.
Almost a year ago, in the Serbian town of Subotica, Aleksandar Vučić and Viktor Orbán shared a casual lunch of burek at a popular bakery. Orbán chose cheese and Vučić chose meat. Neither could have imagined that within twelve months both would lose power.
Orbán fell first, defeated by Péter Magyar's Tisza party in April. Then a student movement less than two years old won Serbia's parliamentary elections by a landslide. Vučić conceded at 21:30 on election night, the same minute Orbán had conceded months earlier. Both movements were driven by young, tech-savvy voters who used AI tools and tens of thousands of election monitors to guard against intimidation and fraud.
The link between the campaigns was direct. Hungarian monitors from the DE civic group travelled to Serbia and trained students over the summer, teaching them to identify 'infected' polling districts in advance. On election day, students in Subotica described masked groups gathering near stations, and volunteers responded with filming, mobile teams and a visible presence that they believe deterred intimidation.
The two leaders had seemed invincible, with long tenures, close business ties and friendships with powerful figures abroad. Now the movement that began with the 2024 collapse of the Novi Sad railway station, which killed 16 people and was blamed on corruption, has changed the political map. Both former leaders may face prosecution, and their countries' special prosecutors could cooperate. As DE's founder put it, the regimes grew weaker over time, and once society found its voice, it could not be stopped.
Almost a year ago, in the northern Serbian town of Subotica, Aleksandar Vučić and Viktor Orbán sat down to a quick lunch of burek at a small, popular bakery in the town centre. Orbán chose cheese, Vučić meat. Neither could have guessed that within twelve months both would be out of power.
Orbán fell first. On 12 April, Péter Magyar's Tisza party defeated him in Hungary. Then, last Sunday, a student movement less than two years old won Serbia's parliamentary elections by a landslide. The Student List will hold 140 seats in the 250-seat Serbian parliament, the same number Tisza won in Hungary's 199-seat chamber. Vučić conceded at exactly 21:30 on election night, the same time Orbán had conceded on 12 April. Few observers had expected either man to give way peacefully.
The two movements look quite different. Tisza is built around the personality and energy of Magyar, while the Serbian students insist they have no leader. But turnout was huge in both countries, 79% in Hungary and 69% in Serbia, and in both it was driven by tech-savvy young people. They used AI tools to crunch numbers and identify threats to the vote, and they mobilised tens of thousands of election monitors to head off intimidation and fraud by the governing parties.
The link between the two campaigns was direct. Last weekend the DE civic action group from Hungary sent 70 monitors to Serbia, where they worked with student representatives at polling stations in the northern province of Vojvodina. During the summer, before the election had even been called, they had run workshops passing on methods from the Hungarian vote. A key technique was to identify "infected" polling districts in advance: places where unusually high past support for the governing party suggested voter intimidation or "chain voting".
Péter Klemm, a student activist from Subotica, described what happened on the day. From around 16:00, he told the BBC, groups of masked hooligans, whom he identified as Vučić supporters, began gathering near polling stations. Mobile teams were sent out and started filming everything. Together with the stationary monitors already in place, 20 to 30 volunteers at each threatened station acted as a strong deterrent, he believes. An hour before polls closed, masked and hooded vigilantes also took up position in central Belgrade; similar groups photographed at many polling stations were blocked by monitors.
Both leaders had looked invincible. Orbán had been in office for 16 years and Vučić for 14, and each had taken over state institutions and built business interests overlapping the two countries. When they met in Subotica, they went on to a local winery to discuss oil and other deals, including a planned Hungarian purchase of Serbia's Nis oil refinery. They shared friendships with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and strong support for Milorad Dodik, the separatist leader of the Bosnian Serbs. A high-speed railway between Belgrade and Budapest is being built with Chinese finance and know-how.
There is speculation that Vučić phoned Orbán twice on Sunday night for advice, once before conceding and again at 23:15, and that Orbán persuaded him not to use force. Vučić denies speaking to Orbán before his announcement but acknowledges the later call. Orbán declined to comment when contacted by the BBC. Magyar, meanwhile, was the only European leader to ring the students directly that evening, and probably the only one who had their number. He spoke with Ilija Srdanović, head of the Student List, who had said on the eve of the vote that Hungary's result showed what the students were doing was right. Magyar told the BBC it was always good to hear that Tisza's story could inspire other nations.
The movement in Serbia began with a catastrophe. On 1 November 2024, the canopy of the Novi Sad railway station collapsed, killing 16 people. The collapse was blamed on corruption as well as negligence, and it catalysed the student movement. Hungarian companies close to Orbán were involved in the station's construction project.
Now Orbán, 63, and Vučić, 56, may both face prosecution for corruption and abuse of power. Serbia's special organised-crime prosecution service, JTOK, and Hungary's new special prosecutors, known as NVVH, have similar powers and could prove useful to each other. Áron Timar, founder of DE, said Europe had assumed the longer the two regimes lasted, the stronger they became. In fact, he told the BBC, they got weaker, and once society found its voice there was no stopping it.
Citações Notáveis
There was a perception in Europe that the longer the regimes stayed, the stronger they got. In fact they got weaker.— Áron Timar, founder of DE civic action group
It is always good to hear that the story of Tisza could provide an inspiration for other nations.— Péter Magyar, Hungarian prime minister
Quer a matéria completa?
Leia o original em BBC ↗
Politics & Governance