Houthi coastal gains reshape Middle East power dynamics, threaten global shipping

In the span of a few days this September, the Houthis swept across Yemen's coastal plain and seized control of roughly 130 kilometers of the country's Red Sea shoreline—territory that had been held by the National Resistance, an anti-Houthi coalition. It was the group's most significant military victory in years, a reminder that despite twelve years of civil war, relentless Saudi airstrikes, and direct attacks by American, Israeli, and British forces, the Iranian-backed rebels remain a consequential force in one of the world's most contested regions.

The speed of the advance caught most observers off guard. Analysts who track the conflict say the Houthis are now so firmly entrenched in this newly captured territory that dislodging them would be far more costly and difficult than it was to take it. Hisham al-Omeisi, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based European Institute of Peace, told the BBC that the group's opponents are demoralized and that the Houthis show no signs of being pushed back. The rebels have the backing of Iran, a relationship that has grown more critical for Tehran as other parts of its regional alliance—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Assad regime in Syria—have suffered significant defeats.

What makes this territorial gain strategically explosive is where it sits on the map. The Houthis now control territory overlooking the Bab al-Mandab, the narrow strait that connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and serves as the gateway to the Suez Canal. If they have also seized key islands in the area, including Perim, which sits at the strait's narrowest point, their ability to disrupt global shipping becomes vastly more potent. Seven months after the United States and Israel launched a major combined assault on Iran, Tehran now exerts authority—directly and through proxies—over two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and the Bab al-Mandab. Together, these passages control more than 35 percent of global fuel and oil trade. Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House in London, described this level of leverage as equivalent to possessing a nuclear weapon.

The Houthis have already demonstrated their willingness and capability to strike shipping in the Red Sea. During Israel's war in Gaza, they deployed missiles, drones, and small attack boats against vessels in these waters. On Friday, the Houthi military released a statement claiming that maritime navigation would be safe for all companies except Saudi vessels, which they said were already under blockade. But shipping companies have reason to be skeptical. In previous campaigns, the Houthis claimed to be targeting only vessels linked to Israel, yet they struck ships with no such connection, including a Norwegian-flagged tanker. Iona Craig, a Yemen expert, told the BBC that the group may nevertheless exercise restraint, having already experienced the consequences of American retaliation. In the spring of 2025, the United States conducted six weeks of intensive air and naval strikes—Operation Rough Rider—in response to Houthi attacks. That experience, Craig suggested, might make the group think twice before launching indiscriminate assaults.

But whether the United States will intervene again remains uncertain. President Trump's conflict with Iran is already unpopular at home, and with oil prices beginning to climb, opening a new military front in Yemen would likely damage his approval ratings and his party's prospects in November's midterm elections. According to reporting from Axios, appeals for American intervention from Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have gone unanswered. The United States says it is concerned about the escalating conflict and is working to increase support for Saudi Arabia, but it is simultaneously trying to avoid direct military involvement.

Saudi Arabia has reason to be deeply worried. Satellite imagery suggests that the Houthis, or forces acting with Iranian backing, have attacked the East-West pipeline, a crucial alternative route for Saudi oil exports that became even more vital after the Strait of Hormuz was closed earlier this year. Whether Iran directly ordered the strike or simply benefits from it, the effect is the same: additional economic pressure on the kingdom at a moment when it is already vulnerable. Baraa Shaiban, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, traces the current escalation back to July, when a Houthi delegation returned from the state funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The fighting intensified immediately afterward, he says, in what appeared to be a deliberate Iranian effort to establish a stronger foothold on the Red Sea.

Yemen itself remains caught in the wreckage. The country has been torn by civil war for twelve years. Its people have been displaced, bombed, starved, and impoverished by the conflict. The recent Houthi gains and the prospect of renewed large-scale fighting offer little hope that conditions will improve. With Saudi Arabia anxious about protecting its economic lifelines, the United States reluctant to commit new military resources, and Iran clearly determined to expand its influence, Yemen faces the possibility of descending once again into all-out war.