In a country where typhoons and floods have long set the rhythm of public life, the coming dry season now looks like a test of a different kind. The 2027 national budget proposes raising the calamity fund to P45.6 billion, a P5.8-billion step up from this year, as forecasters warn of a strong and possibly prolonged El Niño that could reach every province. The sum is a measure of how a nation prepares for hardship that has not yet arrived, and whether money set aside on paper will become water, seed and food when the parched months come.
House Leader Urges Bigger Calamity Fund as Super El Niño Threatens Metro Manila and All 82 Provinces
Severe drought could cause water shortages, crop losses, rising food prices and livelihood disruptions for millions of Filipinos, according to the lawmaker's warnings.
Not wait for communities to experience these hardships before taking decisive action
Mark
Why is a budget line item suddenly the headline here?
Mimi
Because the forecast gives it urgency. The calamity fund goes from P39.8 billion to P45.6 billion in the 2027 proposal, and Libanan ties that to a drought that could reach Metro Manila and 47 provinces by the end of January.
Luke
Worth noting that Libanan is the one framing it that way. The increase is in the proposed budget, but the link between this specific hike and El Niño is his argument, not something the budget document is quoted as saying.
Mark
What do the forecasts actually say?
Mimi
PAGASA's outlook, based on rainfall as of Nov. 1, says severe drought for Metro Manila and 47 provinces by end-January, and all 82 provinces plus the capital region by end-March. NOAA, on Nov. 12, put the odds of a strong-to-very strong El Niño through January to March at more than 79 percent.
Luke
Those are probabilities and projections, not events. "Could experience" is the operative phrase. And the harms he lists, like water shortages and higher food prices, are possibilities he names, not measured outcomes.
Mark
He says money isn't enough. What does he mean?
Mimi
That agencies need to have resources ready and plans in place early. He wants vulnerable communities identified, water supplies secured, farm production protected and aid prepared for families whose incomes might drop.
Luke
We don't know from this reporting how any agency has responded, or how much of the fund would go to drought preparation specifically. The fund covers many disasters.
Mark
What happens next?
Mimi
The House has passed the P7.2-trillion budget, and it's now with the Senate. That is where the figure could hold or change.
El Pulso
- The calamity fund is set to climb 14 percent to P45.6 billion, but the budget still has to clear the Senate.
- PAGASA warns Metro Manila and 47 provinces could face severe drought by late January 2027, with all 82 provinces possibly affected by March.
- NOAA puts the odds of a strong El Niño through early 2027 above 79 percent, leaving little room for complacency.
- House Minority Leader Libanan presses agencies to act before hardship hits, urging readied resources, secured water, protected farms and aid for families.
- The coming weeks of Senate deliberations will reveal whether the larger fund and agency drought plans are ready in time.
In a country where typhoons and floods have long set the rhythm of public life, the coming dry season now looks like a test of a different kind. The 2027 national budget proposes raising the calamity fund to P45.6 billion, a P5.8-billion step up from this year, as forecasters warn of a strong and possibly prolonged El Niño that could reach every province. The sum is a measure of how a nation prepares for hardship that has not yet arrived, and whether money set aside on paper will become water, seed and food when the parched months come.
The number at the heart of this story is P45.6 billion. That is what the proposed 2027 National Expenditure Program would set aside for the calamity fund, up from P39.8 billion this year. It is a P5.8-billion increase, or 14 percent, aimed at relief, rehabilitation, recovery and, importantly for a drought seen coming months ahead, pre-disaster activities.
House Minority Leader Marcelino "Nonoy" Libanan of the 4Ps Party-list is using that increase as a call to action. He warns that a severe and prolonged El Niño could strike Metro Manila and all 82 provinces. He is clear that money alone will not save anyone. Agencies must ensure resources are ready and preparedness is in place well before the worst arrives.
His warning rests on two forecasts. PAGASA says Metro Manila and 47 provinces could face severe drought by the end of January 2027, with all provinces possibly affected by March. Abroad, NOAA gives more than 79 percent odds of a strong El Niño through early 2027. The consequences, Libanan says, could reach millions: water shortages, crop losses, rising food prices and broken livelihoods.
He asks departments of agriculture, water resources, health, social welfare and disaster management, along with local governments, to identify vulnerable communities, secure water, protect farm production and prepare aid for families whose incomes could fall. The budget is still moving. The House has approved its P7.2-trillion version, and now the Senate will decide whether the calamity fund and the country's drought readiness are enough.
The number at the center of this story is P45.6 billion. That is what the 2027 National Expenditure Program sets aside for the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Fund, better known as the calamity fund. This year's budget carries P39.8 billion for the same purpose, so the proposed increase is P5.8 billion, or 14 percent.
House Minority Leader Marcelino "Nonoy" Libanan, who represents the 4Ps Party-list, is pointing to that increase as the country prepares for a potentially severe and prolonged El Niño. He says the larger fund reflects the need to strengthen disaster preparedness and response while drought threatens Metro Manila and all 82 provinces. He also made clear that money alone is not the answer. In his words, the threat calls for more than a bigger fund: agencies must see that resources are readily available and that preparedness measures are in place well before the worst effects arrive.
His warning rests on two forecasts. The first is the latest outlook from PAGASA, the national weather agency. Libanan cited it in saying that Metro Manila and 47 provinces could experience severe drought by the end of January 2027. By the end of March, all 82 provinces and the National Capital Region could be affected by what he called a super El Niño, or prolonged drought. PAGASA built the outlook on rainfall conditions observed as of Nov. 1, and it defines drought as three consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall, meaning a drop of more than 60 percent from the average.
The second forecast comes from abroad. The United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an assessment on Nov. 12 that put the probability of a strong-to-very strong El Niño lasting through January to March 2027 at more than 79 percent. Libanan describes the PAGASA projection as consistent with that finding.
The consequences he lists are concrete: water shortages, agricultural losses, higher food prices and widespread disruption to livelihoods. He says millions of Filipinos could be affected. He directed his message at national departments, particularly those handling agriculture, water resources, health, social welfare and disaster management, as well as local government units. They should not underestimate a severe drought, he said, and should not wait for communities to feel the hardship before acting.
He asked those agencies and local governments to do four things: identify vulnerable communities, secure adequate water supplies, protect agricultural production, and prepare assistance for families whose incomes could be hit. The coming weeks, he said, should go to contingency measures and coordination of resources so that vulnerable households, farmers and other affected sectors are not left to fend for themselves.
The calamity fund pays for relief, rehabilitation and recovery programs for communities hit by natural and human-induced disasters. It also covers eligible pre-disaster activities, which is the category most relevant to a drought that forecasters are projecting weeks or months ahead.
The budget itself is still moving. Last October, the House approved the P7.2-trillion 2027 General Appropriations Bill on third and final reading. The bill, based on the National Expenditure Program, is now before the Senate, where the calamity fund figure and the readiness of agencies for a possible drought will be tested in the weeks ahead.
Citas Notables
The government should use the weeks ahead to prepare contingency measures, coordinate resources and make sure that vulnerable households, farmers and other affected sectors will not be left to fend for themselves.— House Minority Leader Marcelino "Nonoy" Libanan
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