Hormuz traffic collapses to single digits as US-Iran deal expires

The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most vital chokepoint for oil and gas, has become nearly impassable. On Sunday, August 17, only three commercial vessels moved through the waterway—down from 275 crossings per week just seven weeks earlier. Around 520 ships now sit idle in the Arabian Gulf, waiting for passage that may not come for months.

The collapse followed the expiration of a 60-day interim agreement between the United States and Iran, signed in Islamabad on June 17. Neither side moved to extend it. President Trump had promised the deal would reopen the strait, but instead described the American blockade of Iranian ports as a "wall of steel." Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi countered that Tehran controls the waterway. On Monday, Trump escalated further, threatening to bomb Oman if it interfered with negotiations—a threat that underscored how fragile the arrangement had always been.

The numbers tell the story of a brief opening followed by a hard closure. Weekly vessel crossings peaked at 275 in late June, days after the agreement took effect. By the first week of August, that figure had fallen to 98. By mid-August, daily crossings had dropped into single digits. According to Kpler, a firm tracking maritime traffic and energy flows, the decline represents a 64 percent collapse from the post-agreement high.

Iranian oil exports suffered the sharpest blow. Volumes rose to 1.545 million barrels per day in late June, suggesting the reopening Trump had promised might actually happen. But as disputes over control of the strait intensified through July, Iranian shipments cratered. By the week of August 3, Iranian oil exports through Hormuz had fallen to just 91,900 barrels per day—a 94 percent decline from the June peak. Other Gulf producers—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain—fared far better, maintaining combined exports of 2.948 million barrels per day in early August, only about 6 percent below pre-deal levels. Much of their oil moved on smaller shuttle tankers that transferred cargo to points outside the strait, circumventing the blockade.

The backlog now facing the waterway presents a logistical nightmare. Kpler's trade risk analyst Ana Subasic estimated that even if demining operations begin immediately and security conditions improve, clearing the 520 stranded vessels could take six to eight weeks. That timeline assumes operators are willing to resume transits once conditions stabilize—an assumption that remains uncertain given the current political standoff.

Many vessels have already begun taking evasive measures. More than half of all crossings tracked since the conflict began on February 28 were "dark," meaning they broadcast no reliable tracking signal. Another 29 percent used Iranian-controlled routes. On Sunday, the three vessels that did transit included a very large crude carrier flagged to India, which entered via the Iranian route. The other two went dark entirely, their destinations unknown. Subasic noted that disabling automatic identification systems reduces a vessel's visibility and potentially makes it harder to target, though she cautioned it is "a risk-mitigation gamble rather than a guarantee of protection."

The strait normally handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supply. Its near-total closure represents a critical test of global energy markets and a stark reminder of how quickly geopolitical tensions can choke off vital infrastructure. Whether the blockade holds or gives way depends entirely on negotiations that have already failed once, with neither side showing signs of compromise.