A very large crude carrier turned back from its attempt to leave the Persian Gulf after receiving threats over the radio and hearing explosions nearby, a moment that stands within a larger and familiar human pattern of hope raised and then withdrawn. Since the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz in the summer, that agreement has collapsed and shipping through the strait has sunk back to its lowest level in more than two months, even as diplomacy is set to resume. Two narrow passages of the sea, one at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and one at the southern
Hormuz Tanker Traffic Stays at Two-Month Low as Iran and Houthi Threats Escalate
Two chokepoints under pressure at once
Mark
Start with the Egypt Prosperity. What actually happened?
Mimi
A very large crude carrier tried to leave the Persian Gulf over the weekend and aborted. Security consultancies said it got direct threats by radio, and the crew reported hearing explosions nearby.
Luke
Worth noting that's relayed through alerts Bloomberg saw. The source doesn't say who made the threats or what the explosions were.
Mark
So why does one ship matter?
Mimi
Because it matches the broader data. Hormuz traffic is near a two-month low and hasn't recovered since the end of July.
Mark
What changed from mid-June?
Mimi
A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding briefly let the chokepoint reopen, and traffic rose. That deal is now described as dead.
Luke
And the cause of the current slump is attributed, not proven. The source says Iran wants control over transiting vessels, but gives no detail on how.
Mark
What about the Red Sea?
Mimi
The Houthis are threatening Saudi-linked shipments there and at Bab el-Mandeb. So the pressure is on two routes.
Mark
Is the worst-ever claim solid?
Luke
It's analysts' judgment, from Kpler's Matthew Wright and others speaking to the BBC. It's a view, not a measured figure. We also don't know how many ships are going dark, since by definition they're hard to count.
Mimi
What we do know is that talks were announced and traffic still hasn't come back.
Le Pouls
- A very large crude carrier, the Egypt Prosperity, aborted its exit from the Persian Gulf after direct radio threats and reports of explosions nearby.
- Hormuz traffic sits near a two-month low, with the brief summer reopening undone by the collapse of the U.S.-Iran memorandum.
- Tanker owners are scattering their responses: some sailing in dark mode, some giving up on the crossing, others refusing to risk it at all.
- Analysts call the current threat the worst safety situation since the Iran war began, with the crude trade at its most exposed point.
- Houthi threats against Saudi-linked cargoes in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb add a second front, while renewed U.S.-Iran talks are the only visible hope for relief.
A very large crude carrier turned back from its attempt to leave the Persian Gulf after receiving threats over the radio and hearing explosions nearby, a moment that stands within a larger and familiar human pattern of hope raised and then withdrawn. Since the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz in the summer, that agreement has collapsed and shipping through the strait has sunk back to its lowest level in more than two months, even as diplomacy is set to resume. Two narrow passages of the sea, one at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and one at the southern end of the Red Sea, are now both under strain, and the question hanging over them is whether talks can loosen a grip that has tightened over recent weeks.
Over the weekend, the Egypt Prosperity, a very large crude carrier, tried to leave the Persian Gulf and turned back. Security consultancies warned clients that the ship had been threatened directly over the radio, and its crew reported hearing explosions close by. The alerts were reported by Bloomberg News.
The incident is part of a broader pattern. Ship-tracking data showed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still subdued as of Tuesday, close to its lowest level in more than two months. The count includes all vessels, not only tankers.
A brief recovery came in mid-June and early July, when traffic rose as the strait tentatively reopened under a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That agreement is now considered dead, and traffic fell back by the end of July without recovering since. Despite U.S. efforts to calm oil prices and an announcement that talks with Iran will resume, security has worsened over the past two weeks. Iran is determined to control ships passing through Hormuz, and the Iran-aligned Houthis are threatening Saudi-linked shipments in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.
Tanker owners are left with hard choices: transit in dark mode, abandon the attempt, or refuse the risk entirely. Analysts told the BBC that threats across the Gulf and Red Sea are now the worst since the Iran war began, with Kpler's Matthew Wright saying the threat to crude shipments is at its highest point of the crisis. What comes next depends on whether renewed talks ease the threats and whether Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked Red Sea shipping widen.
Over the weekend, the Egypt Prosperity, a very large crude carrier, tried to leave the Persian Gulf and turned back. Security consultancies alerted clients that the vessel had received direct threats over the radio. Its crew also reported hearing explosions close by. The alerts were seen by Bloomberg News.
The episode fits a wider pattern at the Strait of Hormuz. As of Tuesday, ship-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed traffic there still subdued, near its lowest level in more than two months. The count covers all vessels, including commodity carriers, not only tankers.
The low follows a short improvement. Between the middle of June and early July, traffic rose as the chokepoint tentatively reopened under a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That agreement is now described as dead. By the end of July, traffic had fallen to the two-month low, and it has not bounced back.
The lack of recovery comes despite U.S. efforts to talk down oil prices and an announcement that talks with Iran would begin again. The source reports that security has worsened over the past two weeks. Iran is determined to exert control over ships passing through Hormuz. The Iran-aligned Houthis are threatening Saudi-linked shipments in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which leads into the Arabian Sea.
The trickle of traffic is prolonging a period in which tanker owners choose among three options. Some transit Hormuz in dark mode. Some abandon their attempts to cross. Others decline to risk a passage at all.
Analysts at security and vessel-tracking firms told the BBC this week that threats to shipping in the Gulf and the Red Sea have reached the worst safety situation since the Iran war began. Matthew Wright, an analyst at the ship-tracking firm Kpler, put it in terms of crude trade. He said the threat to crude shipments is at the worst point since the crisis began.
The picture is therefore of two chokepoints under pressure at once, one at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and one at the southern end of the Red Sea. Both matter for oil leaving the region. The reporting rests largely on Bloomberg's tracking data, security consultancy alerts and analyst comments to the BBC.
What to watch next is whether the renewed U.S.-Iran talks bring any easing of the threats, and whether Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked Red Sea shipments widen.
Citations marquantes
In terms of threat to the trade of crude, we're at the worst period since this crisis began.— Matthew Wright, analyst at Kpler, speaking to the BBC
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