In the early days of October, the narrow waterway at Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil once passed, grew quiet again. Tanker traffic fell to its lowest point in two months just as attacks on vessels reached their highest count since the war began in February. A recovery that had seemed nearly complete has stalled, and the ship-to-ship transfers that carried much of it now stand as the fragile hinge on which the next weeks may turn.
Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls to Two-Month Low as Attacks on Vessels Reach Wartime High
Seven carriers crossed the strait on Tuesday, the fewest since late July.
Mark
Why does one day with seven tankers matter so much?
Mimi
Because it's the lowest since late July, and it came right after trackers said flows were back to pre-war levels. The recovery looked finished and then it wasn't.
Luke
One day is one day, though. The firmer number is the weekly one: crude down 27% to at least 10.1 million barrels a day.
Mark
And that's still well below normal?
Mimi
Kpler puts it at 74% of the pre-war level. Before the war the strait carried a fifth of global oil.
Mark
Where did traffic fall furthest?
Mimi
Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. That's the method Saudi Arabia used to ramp up exports, so it's a key piece of the recovery.
Luke
Careful with cause. The reporting shows the drop and the attacks side by side. It doesn't say the attacks are why those transfers fell.
Mark
What about the attacks themselves?
Mimi
At least 12 between September 28 and October 2, on crude, LPG and LNG tankers, the most since the war began in late February.
Luke
That count and the attribution to Iran come from the JMIC, which is U.S. Navy-led, relayed through Reuters. It's one source's account, and it's not independently confirmed here.
Mark
So what's the thing to watch?
Mimi
Whether attacks persist, and whether the Saudi transfers can keep the recovery going.
O Pulso
- Only seven commodity carriers crossed the strait on a single Tuesday, the thinnest traffic since late July.
- At least twelve tankers carrying crude, LPG and LNG were attacked in just five days, the most since the war began.
- Crude flows dropped 27% in one week, sliding back to about 74% of pre-war levels after a recovery that looked nearly complete.
- The sharpest decline hit ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, the channel Saudi Arabia relies on to keep its exports moving.
- Whether attacks persist and whether those transfers can hold will decide if the oil recovery survives or slips back.
In the early days of October, the narrow waterway at Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil once passed, grew quiet again. Tanker traffic fell to its lowest point in two months just as attacks on vessels reached their highest count since the war began in February. A recovery that had seemed nearly complete has stalled, and the ship-to-ship transfers that carried much of it now stand as the fragile hinge on which the next weeks may turn.
On a Tuesday in early October, tracking data from Kpler counted just seven commodity carriers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. It was the lowest daily figure since late July, and it came only days after analysts had said oil flows through the strait were back to pre-war levels. The recovery that had seemed close to complete suddenly looked unsteady.
The weekly numbers told the same story. Crude crossing the strait fell 27% from its wartime high the week before, settling at roughly 10.1 million barrels a day. That was about three-quarters of the pre-war level, and the drop was sharpest among vessels doing ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, the method Saudi Arabia has leaned on to expand its crude exports.
The security picture grew darker in the same week. The Joint Maritime Information Center, led by the U.S. Navy, recorded at least 12 attacks between September 28 and October 2 on tankers carrying crude, LPG and LNG. It was the highest count since the war began in late February. The JMIC attributed the attacks to Iran, describing them as a signal of intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and keep pressure on passing vessels.
The sources do not establish exactly how the attacks and the traffic decline are connected, but they arrived together. What is clear is that a recovery built through late September reversed within a single week. What comes next depends on whether the attacks continue and whether the Gulf of Oman transfers can hold up well enough to keep the oil recovery on track.
On Tuesday, Kpler's tanker trackers counted just seven commodity carriers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. It was the lowest daily figure since late July, and it arrived only days after tracking outlets had said oil flows out of the strait were back to pre-war levels.
Two Kpler analysts put the weekly picture in numbers. Crude crossing the strait fell 27% from a wartime high the week before, to at least 10.1 million barrels a day. They described that as back to the September average, but only 74% of the pre-war level. The recovery that looked nearly complete a few days earlier has stalled.
The sharpest drop in tanker movements came among vessels doing ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. That detail matters because transfers of this kind are how Saudi Arabia has ramped up its crude exports, a move credited as instrumental in the recovery of overall oil flows out of the Persian Gulf. When that segment thins out, the broader rebound loses one of its main supports.
The trend leading up to this week was uneven. For most of September, Kpler's moving-average measure showed lower energy commodity flows out of Hormuz. Toward the end of the month, the firm said flows were improving and gradually returning to levels from before the war. Before the conflict, the strait handled a fifth of global oil flows and a significant share of LNG flows as well.
The security picture moved in the opposite direction. Reuters reported, citing the Joint Maritime Information Center, which is led by the U.S. Navy, that there were at least 12 attacks between September 28 and October 2 on tankers carrying crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas. According to the data, that is the highest number of attacks on tankers since the war began at the end of February.
The JMIC attributed the attacks to Iran. In a statement, it said the actions continue to demonstrate Iran's intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels.
The two sets of figures arrive together, but the sources do not establish exactly how the attacks and the traffic drop are linked. What they show is a recovery that had been building through late September and then reversed within a week, as attacks reached their highest count of the war.
What to watch next is whether the attacks continue, and whether Saudi ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman can hold up well enough to keep the oil recovery on track.
Citações Notáveis
These actions continue to demonstrate Iran's intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels.— Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)
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