Historic El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricanes while Pacific storms intensify

By late September in most years, the Atlantic hurricane season has already produced its share of major storms. In 2005, one of the most active seasons on record, five major hurricanes had already formed by this point in the calendar, including Katrina, which would become one of the deadliest in American history. But 2026 has unfolded in near silence. As of September 23, the North Atlantic had seen only six tropical storms develop, and not a single one had strengthened into a hurricane—a threshold that requires sustained winds of at least 119 kilometers per hour. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this marks the first time since satellites began tracking Atlantic storms in 1966 that a season has reached this point without producing even one hurricane.

Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, described the moment plainly: "In the satellite era, we have never had a year without a hurricane. This would be a first." The accumulated cyclone energy—a measurement that combines storm duration and intensity—has hit a record low for this late in the season, which typically peaks around September 10. The reason for this historic quiet lies largely in the Pacific Ocean, where a powerful natural climate pattern called El Niño is reshaping weather systems across the globe.

El Niño, part of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, emerges roughly every two to seven years and can influence weather worldwide for up to a year. The pattern works through shifts in ocean temperatures and wind patterns over the Pacific. This year's version is among the strongest on record, with sea surface temperatures in key Pacific regions now exceeding 3 degrees Celsius above normal. When El Niño strengthens, the trade winds that typically push weather systems westward across the Atlantic weaken or even reverse direction. This disruption ripples upward through the atmosphere, altering the jet stream and the humidity patterns that fuel hurricane formation. The result is increased wind shear—sharp changes in wind speed and direction at different altitudes—that tears apart developing storms before they can organize into hurricanes. Rosencrans explained the mechanism: "Formations deep in the tropics are hampered due to high wind shear. The stronger the El Niño event, the stronger the wind shear."

Yet this same El Niño is simultaneously intensifying storms on the opposite side of the Pacific. In the eastern and central Pacific, where warmer waters and reduced wind shear create ideal conditions for cyclone development, the season has already produced several major hurricanes, including Polo, which this week intensified into one of the most powerful Pacific cyclones in decades. The pattern shifts where storms form and how they move. Typically during El Niño, Pacific typhoons develop farther east, toward the international date line and the Marshall Islands, giving them longer lifespans before reaching land. Anne-Claire Fontan, a scientific officer with the World Meteorological Organization's Tropical Cyclone Program, noted that storms on the Asian side of the Pacific tend to track northward rather than westward during El Niño years, meaning Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, and the Korean Peninsula face elevated odds of tropical storms and typhoons.

The Indian Ocean tells a similar story of disruption. Strong El Niño conditions weaken monsoon winds over the Indian subcontinent, often triggering severe drought, while simultaneously suppressing tropical cyclone activity through increased wind shear. Countries in eastern Africa, including Madagascar and Mozambique, face reduced cyclone risk as a result. Fontan described the relationship as non-linear: as El Niño moves toward its extremes, tropical cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean basin tends to drop below normal.

El Niño itself is a natural phenomenon, not caused by human activity, and Rosencrans emphasized that it represents only one factor among many that determine hurricane season intensity. Saharan dust drifting across the Atlantic can also suppress storms. But what makes 2026 particularly concerning is the collision between this powerful natural pattern and the longer-term warming from climate change. Fontan warned that El Niño occurring in an already warming world can amplify its most destructive effects—extreme heat, heavy rainfall, and drought. The UK's Met Office has suggested that the combined influence could shatter global heat records in 2027. A report from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projects that extreme heat during this El Niño period could cause nearly half a million additional deaths worldwide, with the heaviest toll falling on the Global South. Celeste Saulo, head of the World Meteorological Organization, issued a stark warning in early September: "We are already seeing the disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to worsen as El Niño intensifies." The Atlantic may be spared from hurricanes this year, but the world is paying the price elsewhere.