Higgs' Progressive Conservatives Win Majority in New Brunswick's Pandemic Election

On election night in Quispamsis, New Brunswick, about 50 supporters gathered in a bingo hall, wearing masks and standing two metres apart, to watch Premier Blaine Higgs claim a majority government. Higgs walked to the stage with his wife and two daughters, all four in full face shields. At the podium he took his shield off, looked over the thin crowd and said with a smile, "There's nothing like coming to a packed hall. This is life in COVID."

The final count gave the Progressive Conservatives 27 of the 49 seats. The Liberals took 17, the Greens three and the People's Alliance two. A majority required at least 25. It was the first election held in Canada since the pandemic began, and Higgs thanked voters for showing the country how a democratic vote could be run safely. He also said that, whatever came in the months and years ahead, New Brunswickers now knew they would have stability and experience guiding them through difficult times.

The result closes a gamble. Higgs called the snap election four weeks earlier, arguing that his 21-month-old minority government lacked the stability the moment required. Opposition leaders accused him of political opportunism. At dissolution the house stood at 20 Tories, 20 Liberals, three Greens, three People's Alliance members, one Independent and two vacancies. Higgs bet that voters would credit him for his handling of the COVID-19 crisis rather than punish him for the timing. In the campaign's last week he said he wanted a majority so the party could concentrate on health care and public safety, and that any other outcome would put the province at risk. The 66-year-old former Irving Oil executive had pitched himself as dull but dependable: "Maybe I'm boring, but I'm no surprise," he said last month. "I'm consistent. You can trust me."

It is the first time since Bernard Lord's re-election in 2003 that a New Brunswick government has won two consecutive terms.

The 28-day campaign, which began Aug. 17, looked nothing like earlier ones. Few candidates knocked on doors, and those who did wore masks and kept well back. There were no handshakes, no baby-kissing and no big rallies. Literature went out by mail, and leaders held outdoor events that were livestreamed, with masked candidates standing far in the background. Higgs wore a plastic face shield at most stops.

Past New Brunswick campaigns turned on polarizing questions such as hydraulic fracturing, soaring auto insurance rates and the possible privatization of NB Power, the Crown-owned utility. This one was almost entirely about COVID-19. The province has among the lowest infection levels in the country, behind only P.E.I. and the territories, and Higgs made that his central talking point. He also cited forecasts that New Brunswick was leading the country in economic recovery, and said its economic contraction was smaller than the national one because the virus was contained quickly. The Tories credited all of this to his leadership. Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers took a gloomier view, saying the Tories were pretending things had returned to normal while "businesses are still feeling the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic." He also accused Higgs of listening to political advisers rather than New Brunswickers, and called the election neither wanted nor needed.

Vickers, acclaimed Liberal leader in 2019, had served as sergeant-at-arms in the House of Commons, where in 2014 he was credited with fatally shooting a gunman who fired a rifle inside Centre Block. Soon after Higgs spoke, he announced he was stepping down. "Obviously with the results of this evening, it's time for another leader to step up and take this party forward," he said, adding that he hoped his successor would "take the torch and bring it up higher."

The win was not province-wide. The Tories largely failed to make gains in French-speaking regions, so the linguistic divide that emerged after the 2018 election persists: the Tories dominate English-speaking central and southern ridings, while the Liberals hold the French-speaking north.

The smaller parties had warned against a majority, pointing to an all-party cabinet committee that had handled the pandemic well under the minority arrangement. Green Leader David Coon said the result "speaks to the need for electoral reform, so we don't have these majority governments where premiers can have their way." People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin said he was disappointed but vowed to keep pressing for change: "We still have our foot in the door, make no mistake about it." The NDP, led on an interim basis by 23-year-old Mackenzie Thomason, was shut out again, as in 2018.

What follows is a Liberal leadership search and a majority Tory government facing a divided province, with electoral reform now on the agenda of the smaller parties.