Higgs' Progressive Conservatives win majority in New Brunswick's COVID-era election

In a bingo hall in Quispamsis, New Brunswick, about 50 supporters stood two metres apart in masks on Monday night and watched Premier Blaine Higgs walk to the stage with his wife and two daughters. All four wore full face shields. At the podium Higgs took his off, looked at the thin crowd and said with a smile that there was nothing like a packed hall, and that this was life in COVID.

His Progressive Conservatives had just won a majority government in the first election held in Canada since the pandemic began. With all votes counted, the Tories took 27 ridings, the Liberals 17, the Greens three and the People's Alliance two. A majority in the 49-seat house required at least 25. When the house was dissolved, the Tories held 20 seats, the Liberals 20, the Greens three and the People's Alliance three, with one Independent and two vacancies. No other government in New Brunswick has won two consecutive terms since Bernard Lord's Tories were re-elected in 2003.

Higgs had called the snap election four weeks earlier, arguing that his 21-month-old minority government lacked the stability the province needed at a difficult time. Opponents called it political opportunism. Higgs gambled that voters would not see it that way, since he had won wide praise for his handling of the fast-moving COVID-19 crisis. In the campaign's final week he said he wanted a majority so the Tories could focus on health care and keeping people safe, and that any other result would put the province at risk. In his victory speech he said that, whatever came in the months and years ahead, the province would have stability and experience, and he thanked New Brunswickers for showing the country that democratic elections could be held safely during a pandemic.

The 66-year-old former Irving Oil executive had cast himself as dull but dependable. Last month he said that maybe he was boring, but he was no surprise: consistent, and trustworthy.

The 28-day race, which began Aug. 17, looked nothing like a normal campaign. Few candidates knocked on doors, and those who did wore masks and kept their distance. There were no handshakes, no baby-kissing and no big rallies. Literature went out by mail, and party leaders held outdoor events that were livestreamed while masked candidates stood well back. At most stops Higgs wore a plastic face shield.

Where earlier campaigns had turned on divisive issues such as hydraulic fracturing, soaring auto insurance rates or the possible privatization of NB Power, this one was almost entirely about COVID-19. New Brunswick has one of the lowest infection levels in the country, behind only P.E.I. and the territories, and Higgs made that his central talking point. He also cited forecasts that the province was leading the country in economic recovery, and noted that its economy had contracted less than the rest of Canada's because the virus was contained quickly. The Tories credited all of it to his leadership. Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers countered that the Tories were pretending things had returned to normal when businesses were still feeling the repercussions of the pandemic. He also accused Higgs of listening to political advisers rather than New Brunswickers, saying the election was neither wanted nor needed.

Vickers, acclaimed Liberal leader in 2019, was formerly the House of Commons sergeant-at-arms, credited with fatally shooting a gunman who fired a rifle inside Centre Block in 2014. Soon after Higgs spoke, he announced he was stepping down, saying it was time for another leader to take the party forward and that he hoped the next one would carry the torch higher.

The smaller parties had urged voters not to hand anyone a majority, arguing the minority arrangement worked well, with an all-party cabinet committee managing the COVID-19 response. Green Leader David Coon said the result showed the need for electoral reform so premiers could not simply have their way. People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin said he was disappointed but that his party still had its foot in the door. The NDP, led on an interim basis by 23-year-old Mackenzie Thomason, was shut out again, as in 2018.

The win did not close the province's linguistic divide. The Tories largely failed to gain ground in French-speaking regions: they dominate the English-speaking ridings of central and southern New Brunswick, while the Liberals held the French-speaking north, a split that emerged after the 2018 election. Higgs now governs with a majority, but the Liberals must pick a new leader, and the north remains unconvinced.