Trump will likely tell Netanyahu to wrap it up and announce victory
Donald Trump's return to the presidency arrives as the Middle East stands at a crossroads shaped by wars, shifting alliances, and unresolved nuclear ambitions. The region he left four years ago has transformed: Iran enriches uranium closer to weapons-grade thresholds, Gulf states have woven China into their strategic fabric, and Israel fights on two fronts while its neighbors recalibrate. History suggests Trump will move boldly—but whether that boldness bends toward dealmaking or confrontation remains the defining question for millions living beneath the shadow of these decisions.
- Netanyahu celebrated Trump's victory as a historic affirmation of the U.S.-Israel alliance, yet their relationship carries old wounds—and Trump may pressure Israel to declare victory and exit Gaza and Lebanon quickly, not out of humanitarian concern but because he dislikes inheriting someone else's wars.
- Gulf states face a strategic squeeze: having quietly deepened ties with China and mended fences with Iran since 2021, they now risk being pressured by Trump to choose sides in ways that could unravel years of careful diplomatic hedging.
- Iran enters this moment simultaneously weakened and defiant—its proxy networks degraded by Israeli strikes, its economy strangled, its population restless—yet its nuclear program has advanced further than at any point in its history, raising the stakes of any confrontation.
- A dangerous interregnum looms before January 20, with analysts warning that Trump could signal Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities before taking office, allowing him to later position himself as the peacemaker who ended the crisis he quietly enabled.
- Trump's own instincts may pull toward a grand bargain with Tehran, but the advisers likely to surround him are hostile to any such deal, leaving Iran's leadership—and the region—uncertain whether the next four years will bring negotiation or escalation.
Donald Trump's return to the White House finds the Middle East far more volatile than when he left it. His first term reshaped the region's architecture—recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, and brokering the Abraham Accords—and regional actors are now calculating what a second term will bring.
Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu celebrated the election result as a triumph for the bilateral alliance, though the two men share a complicated history marked by mutual accusations of betrayal. Analysts broadly expect Trump to push Netanyahu to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon swiftly—not from concern for civilian suffering, but because Trump has little appetite for inheriting active conflicts. Palestinian leaders, meanwhile, fear Trump may quietly permit Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank, foreclosing any path to statehood.
Gulf states offered formal congratulations while privately navigating a more complex reality. Since 2021, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reduced military adventurism, repaired ties with Iran, and embedded China deeply into their infrastructure and technology sectors. Trump may demand they decouple from Beijing and join a renewed pressure campaign against Tehran—two demands that sit in direct tension with the strategic posture they have spent years constructing.
Iran presents the sharpest dilemma. Trump's first term brought maximum pressure, crippling sanctions, and the assassination of Qasem Soleimani—yet Iran's regional influence persisted and its nuclear program accelerated. Today Tehran is simultaneously more vulnerable and more dangerous: its proxy networks have been degraded by Israeli strikes, its economy is near collapse, and its aging Supreme Leader manages cascading crises. Yet uranium enrichment continues at historically high levels.
The weeks before inauguration carry their own risks. Some analysts warn that Trump could signal Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities before formally taking office, then position himself as the peacemaker afterward. Trump's own rhetoric has occasionally suggested interest in a grand deal with Iran, but the advisers he is likely to appoint are deeply hostile to any such agreement. Whether the next four years bring dealmaking or confrontation—or some volatile combination of both—remains the question on which the region's future turns.
Donald Trump's return to the White House arrives at a moment of profound uncertainty across the Middle East, where the region has shifted dramatically since his departure four years ago. The incoming president has already signaled his intentions through decades of rhetoric and a first term that reshaped American engagement with the region—recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital in 2017, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear accord, and orchestrating the Abraham Accords that normalized Israeli relations with four Arab nations. Now, as regional actors watch and calculate, the stakes have grown more complex and the conflicts more entrenched.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time celebrating Trump's election victory, posting that it represented a "huge victory" for the alliance between Israel and America. Yet the relationship between the two leaders carries a complicated history. Trump has long claimed to be the most pro-Israel president in modern times, yet he accused Netanyahu of betrayal in 2021 when the Israeli leader congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory. More recently, Trump criticized Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence for being unprepared for Hamas's October 7 attack, suggesting it would not have happened under his watch. Still, analysts expect Trump to pressure Netanyahu to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon swiftly—not out of concern for Palestinian civilians, but because Trump dislikes inheriting active conflicts. A former Israeli diplomat told CNN that Trump will likely tell Netanyahu to "wrap it up" and "announce victory," then broker a deal through mediators. The concern among Palestinian leaders is that Trump may permit Israel to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, effectively ending any prospect of Palestinian statehood.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates extended formal congratulations to Trump, and Gulf Arab states have cultivated relationships with him since he left office. During his first term, Trump made Riyadh his first foreign destination as president and stood by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman even as the Saudi heir faced international isolation following the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. But the Gulf states have fundamentally altered their strategic posture since 2021. They have reduced military interventions, reached out to Iran, and dramatically expanded ties with China—joining BRICS, securing dialogue partner status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and relying on Chinese technology for critical infrastructure and artificial intelligence development. A senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that Gulf states now face a potential squeeze: Trump may pressure them to decouple from China while simultaneously demanding they support his maximum pressure campaign against Iran, a country with which they have recently improved relations.
Iran presents the most acute challenge for Trump's second term. During his first presidency, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement, reimposed crushing sanctions, and ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the military commander overseeing Iran's regional proxy networks. Yet Iran's influence in the Middle East did not diminish. Since Trump left office, Tehran has accelerated uranium enrichment, increased oil exports, deepened support for militant groups, and twice launched direct attacks on Israel. The Islamic Republic now faces a paradox: it has lost deterring power as Israel degrades its regional capabilities, yet it confronts economic collapse and widespread internal discontent. The Supreme Leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, manages multiple crises simultaneously with limited bandwidth. Iran's government dismissed recent U.S. intelligence reports suggesting Tehran attempted to assassinate Trump as "unsubstantiated and malicious," but the allegation could shape Trump's calculations.
Experts warn of a dangerous window in the final weeks before Trump's inauguration on January 20. One scenario involves Trump signaling to Netanyahu to strike Iran's nuclear facilities before formally taking office, allowing Israel to degrade Iranian capabilities while Trump later claims credit as a peacemaker. The Biden administration has already warned Israel against escalation and sent a letter last month threatening repercussions if Israel does not improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza. Whether that restraint holds depends partly on whether the outgoing administration decides to "pull the plug" on Israeli military options in its final months.
Trump's approach to Iran remains unpredictable. He has previously tweeted that "Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation," suggesting attraction to dealmaking. Yet analysts note a critical distinction: Trump the individual might be drawn to outwitting Iranian negotiators as the ultimate test of his dealmaking prowess, but Trump the administrator would likely surround himself with advisers hostile to any mutually beneficial agreement with Tehran. A revival of maximum pressure could be paired with support for Iranian dissidents—a potential regime-change policy that would make negotiations nearly impossible. The Islamic Republic appears simultaneously fragile and defiant, facing formidable threats while its leadership calculates how to survive the next four years.
Notable Quotes
Netanyahu will face a much tougher president than he is used to in the sense that I don't think Trump would tolerate the wars in the manner that they are happening.— Mustafa Barghouti, leader of the Palestinian National Initiative
The Islamic Republic appears as fragile as the threats against it are formidable.— Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump's return matter so much to the Middle East right now, specifically? What's different from 2020?
The region has moved on without him. Iran has advanced its nuclear program, Gulf states have built real relationships with China, Israel is fighting two wars simultaneously. Trump left a particular architecture—the Abraham Accords, maximum pressure on Iran—but the region didn't stay frozen in 2020. Now he's coming back to a board that's been reshuffled.
Netanyahu seems thrilled. Should he be?
Netanyahu should be cautious. Trump likes quick wins and hates inherited problems. He'll want those Gaza and Lebanon wars ended fast, and he'll expect Netanyahu to declare victory and move on. Trump doesn't care about Palestinian statehood, but he also won't tolerate Netanyahu dragging him into a quagmire. The relationship is transactional, not sentimental.
What about Iran? Trump already tried maximum pressure once.
It failed to contain Iran's influence, but it did cripple the economy and isolate the country. Now Iran is weaker regionally—Israel has degraded its proxy networks—but also more desperate. The danger is that Trump might signal Netanyahu to strike Iranian nuclear facilities before January 20, letting Israel act while Trump takes credit later as a peacemaker.
And the Gulf states? They seem to be playing both sides.
Exactly. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have spent years building ties with China, improving relations with Iran, diversifying away from total dependence on America. Now Trump might demand they choose. He could pressure them to decouple from China while also supporting his Iran policy. They're caught between a multipolar world they've been adapting to and an American president who doesn't accept hedging.
Is there any chance Trump actually negotiates with Iran?
There's a possibility. Trump likes to see himself as a master dealmaker, and he's tweeted that Iran never lost a negotiation. But his advisers would likely oppose any real deal. Maximum pressure paired with support for Iranian dissidents—that's regime change, not negotiation. It closes the door before it opens.
So what are we watching for?
November and December. If Netanyahu moves on Iran's nuclear sites before Trump takes office, we'll know the script. If Trump pressures Israel to end Gaza and Lebanon wars quickly, we'll see how much leverage he actually has. And if Gulf states start decoupling from China, we'll know Trump's demands are real.