Tropical Storm Nolo is gathering force over the Pacific, aimed at Hawaii's Big Island with the quiet certainty of a season that has already tested these islands more than once. By the weekend, forecasters expect it to cross into major hurricane territory, carrying not only dangerous winds but the kind of rainfall — up to 35 inches in some places — that reshapes hillsides and swallows roads. Hawaii finds itself preparing again, this time with the accumulated weight of recent storms still unresolved, a reminder that nature does not wait for recovery to be complete.
Hawaii braces for Hurricane Nolo as major storm approaches Big Island
Potential for life-threatening flooding, mudslides, and infrastructure damage affecting Hawaii residents; previous storms caused widespread power outages for thousands.
catastrophic, life-threatening flooding and mudslides
Mark
So Nolo is still just a tropical storm right now, but it's going to become a hurricane by Thursday and then a major hurricane by the weekend. That's a fast intensification.
Mimi
Yes. It's currently at 45 mph winds, and the threshold for a hurricane is 74 mph. A major hurricane is 111 mph. The ocean water in that part of the Pacific is warm enough to fuel that kind of rapid strengthening.
Luke
Do we know for certain it will reach major hurricane status, or is that a forecast range? Because there's a difference between "could become" and "will become."
Mimi
The hurricane center said it "could become" a major hurricane by the weekend. That's the upper end of the forecast cone. It will definitely be a hurricane by Thursday, but major hurricane status depends on conditions holding.
Mark
And the Big Island could get 35 inches of rain in some places. That's more than three feet of water falling from the sky in a few days.
Mimi
Right. And the warning specifically mentions catastrophic flooding and mudslides on steep terrain. The Big Island has a lot of steep terrain—it's volcanic. Water runs off fast and destabilizes slopes.
Luke
Has the Big Island experienced that kind of rainfall before? I want to know if 35 inches is unprecedented or if there's historical precedent for what the island can handle.
Mimi
The source doesn't give us that comparison. We know it's a serious threat according to the hurricane center, but you're right—we don't have the historical context.
Mark
And this is happening while the islands are still recovering from other storms. Kauai and Niihau got hit earlier this month, and Lala was last month.
Mimi
Exactly. The infrastructure is already stressed. Power is still being restored in some areas. Another major storm hitting the Big Island and Maui compounds that damage.
Luke
How many people live on the Big Island? How many are in the flood-prone zones? The source doesn't tell us the scale of the population at risk.
Mimi
That's a gap. We know the threat is serious, but we don't have numbers on how many residents are actually in danger or how many might need to evacuate.
Mark
When does the window to prepare close?
Mimi
By Friday or Saturday, when Nolo arrives, conditions will deteriorate fast. So people have roughly 24 to 48 hours to get ready.
Der Puls
- Nolo is intensifying fast — from a 45 mph tropical storm Wednesday to a potential major hurricane with 111+ mph winds by the weekend, leaving little time for preparation.
- The Big Island faces a rainfall threat that forecasters call catastrophic: up to 35 inches in some areas, enough to trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides on terrain that cannot absorb it.
- Maui is not spared — 5 to 20 inches of rain puts the island at risk of the same deadly flooding and landslides, while the rest of Hawaii braces for isolated but disruptive downpours.
- Hawaii is already wounded: a September storm battered Kauai and Niihau, Hurricane Lala caused widespread landslides and outages last month, and communities are still mid-recovery as Nolo approaches.
- The window to act is closing — residents on the Big Island and Maui are being urged to secure their homes, stock supplies, and know their evacuation routes before conditions deteriorate Friday or Saturday.
Tropical Storm Nolo is gathering force over the Pacific, aimed at Hawaii's Big Island with the quiet certainty of a season that has already tested these islands more than once. By the weekend, forecasters expect it to cross into major hurricane territory, carrying not only dangerous winds but the kind of rainfall — up to 35 inches in some places — that reshapes hillsides and swallows roads. Hawaii finds itself preparing again, this time with the accumulated weight of recent storms still unresolved, a reminder that nature does not wait for recovery to be complete.
Tropical Storm Nolo is tracking across the Pacific with Hawaii directly in its path. As of Wednesday evening, the storm carried 45 mph winds, but the National Hurricane Center expects it to cross the hurricane threshold by Thursday and potentially reach major hurricane status — winds of at least 111 mph — by the weekend. The Big Island is already under a hurricane watch, with landfall expected Friday or Saturday as the storm makes a sharp turn northward.
The greater danger may be water rather than wind. The Big Island could receive between 15 and 35 inches of rain, enough to trigger catastrophic flooding and mudslides on the island's steep terrain. Maui faces a serious but somewhat lighter threat — up to 20 inches in the hardest-hit areas — while the remaining islands are expected to see 1 to 3 inches with isolated flooding.
Nolo arrives during what forecasters are calling an unusually active Pacific hurricane season. Earlier in September, a storm damaged roads and knocked out power for thousands on Kauai and Niihau. Last month, Hurricane Lala triggered landslides and widespread outages across multiple communities. Hawaii is now preparing for Nolo while still working through the aftermath of those earlier blows — a convergence that strains emergency systems and infrastructure already under pressure.
Residents on the Big Island and Maui are being urged to act now: secure loose objects, gather supplies, and review evacuation routes. By the time Nolo arrives, conditions will deteriorate quickly, and the islands will offer little room to maneuver.
Tropical Storm Nolo is spinning across the Pacific Ocean with Hawaii in its path, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to intensify rapidly over the next few days. As of Wednesday evening, the storm carried maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, but forecasters say it will cross the hurricane threshold sometime Thursday and could reach major hurricane status—winds of at least 111 mph—by the weekend. The Big Island is already under a hurricane watch.
The storm's trajectory is shifting. It is currently moving west-northwest, but the hurricane center said Thursday would bring a sharp turn to the north and north-northeast, steering Nolo directly toward Hawaii. The Big Island should brace for impact either Friday or Saturday, depending on how the system tracks.
What makes Nolo dangerous is not just wind but water. The Big Island is forecast to receive between 15 and 20 inches of rain, with some areas potentially seeing as much as 35 inches. The hurricane center issued an explicit warning: that volume of rainfall could trigger catastrophic, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas with steep terrain where water cannot drain quickly and soil cannot hold. Maui, to the northwest, faces a somewhat lighter but still serious threat—5 to 10 inches of rain across most of the island, though some spots could see 20 inches. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible there as well. The remaining islands are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches, with isolated flooding as the main concern.
Nolo is not the only storm occupying the Pacific right now. Another tropical system is swirling farther east, off Mexico's southwestern coast, adding to what forecasters describe as an unusually active season in the region. Hawaii has already felt the weight of this active pattern. Earlier in September, a previous storm brought damaging winds and heavy rain to Kauai and Niihau, the westernmost inhabited islands. Trees came down, roads were damaged, and thousands of residents lost power. Last month, Hurricane Lala brushed past the islands, triggering landslides and causing widespread power outages across multiple communities.
The state is now preparing for Nolo while still recovering from those recent impacts. The convergence of multiple storms in a single season strains emergency response systems, power infrastructure, and communities still clearing debris and restoring service. Residents on the Big Island and Maui are being urged to prepare now—securing loose objects, stocking supplies, and reviewing evacuation routes if they live in flood-prone areas. The window to act is narrow. By Friday or Saturday, Nolo will be close enough that conditions will deteriorate rapidly, and moving around the islands will become dangerous.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
The hurricane center warned that heavy rain could trigger catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.— National Hurricane Center
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