Hawaii braces for historic hurricane as Lala approaches Big Island

The Big Island of Hawaii is bracing for what could be a watershed moment in the archipelago's recorded weather history. As of Friday afternoon, a tropical storm named Lala was churning roughly 275 miles east-southeast of South Point, its maximum sustained winds already at 65 miles per hour and climbing. By Saturday, forecasters expect it to cross the threshold into hurricane strength—which would make it the first hurricane to make landfall on the Big Island since 1871, a gap of 155 years.

Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency on Friday, describing the approaching system as "enormous" and moving to ensure that state and county resources would be sufficient for debris removal, infrastructure protection, and other preparatory measures. A hurricane warning is now in effect for Hawaii County, which encompasses the Big Island itself. The neighboring islands of Maui, Molokai, and Kahoolawe are under tropical storm warnings. Shelters have been opened, and residents are being urged to move to safe locations before conditions deteriorate beyond the point of safe travel.

What makes this storm particularly dangerous is not necessarily whether it makes a direct hit. Vanessa Almanza, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu, noted that destruction does not require landfall—much of the damage occurs in the broader circulation around the storm. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 8 to 12 inches of rain across Maui and the Big Island this weekend, with some locations on the Big Island potentially receiving as much as 25 inches. Such rainfall in areas of steep terrain creates the conditions for life-threatening flooding and mudslides. The storm is also expected to generate dangerous storm surges and ocean swells capable of producing life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The memory of recent disasters weighs heavily on residents and officials alike. In 2023, the Maui town of Lahaina burned during extreme winds generated by a hurricane passing well offshore. More instructive still is Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall in 1992 as a Category 4 storm—the last hurricane to strike the Hawaiian archipelago. Iniki caused $3 billion in damage, destroyed thousands of homes, and killed six people. Governor Green has reminded residents that Iniki changed its path before making landfall, underscoring the unpredictability of these systems. He urged anyone living in a structure with a questionable roof or uncertain ability to withstand hurricane-force winds to seek shelter with family or friends rather than remain in their homes.

The southern end of the Big Island, where much of the population at risk lives, is remote and rural. Its relative affordability has drawn a growing population in recent years, some of whom inhabit unpermitted structures and live off-grid—circumstances that complicate both preparation and response. On neighboring Oahu, Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi issued a direct appeal on Friday: finish preparations immediately, stay informed, avoid dangerous areas, and ensure families know their evacuation procedures. Residents were instructed to clean gutters and drains, remove hanging branches and debris, and seal doors. Emergency services emphasized staying away from beaches and coastal areas where rough surf and rip currents pose immediate danger.

The broader context for this storm is the current El Niño pattern developing across the Pacific Ocean. Ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have become unusually warm, a condition that tends to fuel hurricane activity in the Pacific basin while suppressing it in the Atlantic. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that when this El Niño peaks between October and December, there is a 69 percent probability of a "historic event" that would exceed the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950. For Hawaii, already facing Lala this weekend, the implications are sobering: this may be only the beginning of an unusually active season.