Hawaii braces for Category 3 Hurricane Lowell as major storm approaches Monday

Potential for casualties and displacement given the Category 3 storm intensity, dangerous surf conditions, and forecasted tornadoes; historical precedent includes six deaths from 1992 Hurricane Iniki.
Everybody is probably just going to hunker down.
A Kauai real estate agent describes how residents are preparing for the storm's arrival Monday night.
Mark

Why does a Category 3 hurricane warrant this level of alarm? Aren't there stronger storms?

Mimi

Category 3 is major—sustained winds over 190 kilometers per hour cause severe structural damage. But what makes Lowell particularly dangerous here is its track. It's moving slowly, just 9 kilometers per hour, which means the islands get pounded for longer. And the rainfall projections—up to 360 millimeters in some spots—that's what triggers mudslides and flash flooding on terrain as steep as Kauai's.

Luke

The source says it fluctuated between Category 3 and 5. That's a huge range. What's the current confidence in the Monday night forecast?

Mimi

The National Hurricane Center issued the warnings on Sunday, so that's the official position. But yes, the fact that Lowell has seesawed in intensity is a complication. It's only the third Pacific hurricane on record to regain Category 5 status after weakening, so there's limited historical precedent for predicting its behavior.

Mark

What about the tornado warning? That seems unusual for Hawaii.

Mimi

It is. The state averages about one tornado per year. Between 1950 and 2018, only 42 were recorded statewide. But tropical cyclones can spawn them in rain bands away from the center, and the National Weather Service is flagging that possibility.

Luke

So we don't know if tornadoes will actually occur—it's a warning that they could.

Mimi

Correct. It's a potential threat, not a certainty.

Mark

How does this compare to the last major hurricane that hit?

Mimi

Hurricane Iniki in 1992 was a Category 4 and remains the largest on record in Hawaii. It killed six people and caused billions in damage, mostly to Kauai. That's the reference point for residents right now.

Luke

But Lowell is Category 3, not 4. Is it likely to be less destructive?

Mimi

Potentially, but the slow movement and rainfall projections are the real concern. Iniki was fast-moving. Lowell will sit over the islands longer.

Mark

What's the human preparation looking like?

Mimi

Panic-buying in supermarkets, people boarding up houses, stockpiling propane and water. One real estate agent I read about bought extra propane for barbecue cooking in case the power goes out. Officials are telling people to prepare to stay home for several days.

Luke

Is there any evacuation order?

Mimi

The source doesn't mention mandatory evacuations, only emergency proclamations and preparation advisories. The focus seems to be on sheltering in place and securing supplies.

  • A storm that twice reached Category 5 strength is now bearing down on Hawaii's most vulnerable islands, with emergency warnings issued across the entire chain.
  • Forecasters are warning of an unusually dangerous combination — storm surge, flash flooding, mudslides on steep terrain, and tornadoes in a state that averages only one per year.
  • Supermarket shelves in Kauai's Lihue are emptying fast as residents board up homes, stockpile propane, and brace for multi-day power outages.
  • Officials are urging people to stay entirely off the shoreline, warning that life-threatening surf and rip currents will extend far beyond the storm's center.
  • The ghost of Hurricane Iniki — six dead, billions in damage to Kauai in 1992 — is driving emergency preparations and shaping the urgency of evacuation advisories.
  • With Lowell tracking slowly at just 9 kilometers per hour, the prolonged exposure window is narrowing the margin for last-minute preparation.

Once again, the Pacific reminds humanity of its indifference to human settlement, as Hurricane Lowell — a storm that has twice surged to Category 5 ferocity before settling into a still-formidable Category 3 — bears down on the Hawaiian Islands with winds, flooding, and tornadoes expected to arrive Monday night. The islands of Kauai and Niihau stand most exposed, their residents bracing against a storm whose erratic intensity has made precise prediction difficult and whose historical echoes — particularly the deadly 1992 Hurricane Iniki — lend the moment a weight beyond meteorology. In the hours before landfall, communities are doing what communities have always done before great storms: gathering what they can, securing what they love, and waiting.

Hurricane Lowell was closing in on Hawaii's northwestern islands Sunday, a Category 3 storm expected to make its presence felt Monday night with winds capable of toppling trees, flooding roads, and spawning tornadoes across some of the state's most remote terrain. The National Hurricane Center issued emergency warnings for the full island chain, identifying Kauai and Niihau as the most exposed, as the storm crept northward at just 9 kilometers per hour — a pace that left residents little room for error.

Lowell's path to this moment had been extraordinary. Forming over warm Pacific waters in late August during an active El Niño season, it surged to Category 5 intensity by Wednesday with sustained winds of 257 kilometers per hour — making it only the third Pacific hurricane on record to regain Category 5 status after weakening mid-path. By Sunday it had settled back to Category 3, with maximum sustained winds of 195 kilometers per hour, positioned roughly 895 kilometers southwest of Honolulu.

The threats were layered and serious. Coastal storm surge could reach one meter, compounded by elevated tides. Rainfall of 150 to 250 millimeters was forecast across most affected areas, with some locations potentially receiving up to 360 millimeters — enough to trigger flash flooding and mudslides on the islands' steep slopes. Tornadoes, rare in Hawaii by any measure, were also expected to form in the storm's outer rain bands. Kauai County officials urged residents and visitors to stay away from the shoreline entirely, warning that dangerous surf would spread well beyond the storm's center.

In Lihue, Kauai's main airport town, the preparations were tangible and urgent. Shelves emptied at supermarkets. Real estate agent Lori Benkert boarded up two homes on the island's western side and stocked extra propane for cooking through what she expected would be days without power. Emergency management officials advised residents to fill gas tanks, charge devices, refill prescriptions, and prepare to shelter in place.

Hovering over all of it was the memory of Hurricane Iniki, which struck Kauai in 1992 as a Category 4 storm, killed six people, and caused billions in damage. Officials were determined not to repeat that history — though Lowell's oscillating intensity had made precise forecasting difficult. A second storm, Hurricane Marie, was churning far to the east near Baja California, but posed no threat to Hawaii. For now, every eye on the islands was fixed on Lowell and the long night ahead.

Hurricane Lowell was bearing down on Hawaii's northwestern islands with the force of a major storm system, expected to arrive Monday night with winds that could topple trees, flood roads, and spawn tornadoes across some of the state's most remote terrain. The National Hurricane Center issued emergency warnings on Sunday for the full island chain, naming Kauai and Niihau as the most exposed targets as the Category 3 system tracked north at a slow 9 kilometers per hour, giving residents and officials little margin for error in their preparations.

The storm had been building intensity since late August, when it formed as a tropical depression over warm Pacific waters fueled by an active El Niño pattern. By Wednesday morning, Lowell had intensified into a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 257 kilometers per hour—a rare escalation that placed it among only three Pacific hurricanes in recorded history to regain such strength after weakening mid-path. The other two were Emilia in 1994 and Ioke in 2006, the latter holding the record as the strongest hurricane ever measured in the central Pacific. By Sunday, Lowell had settled back to Category 3 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 195 kilometers per hour, positioned roughly 895 kilometers southwest of Honolulu.

Kauai's Mayor Derek Kawakami declared an emergency as forecasters outlined the specific threats facing the islands. Coastal areas could see storm surge flooding reach one meter high, compounded by unusually elevated tides. Rainfall was expected to range from 150 to 250 millimeters across most affected zones, with some locations potentially receiving up to 360 millimeters—enough to trigger flash flooding and dangerous mudslides on the islands' steep terrain. The National Weather Service warned that tornadoes could accompany the tropical cyclone, typically forming in rain bands away from the storm's center. Hawaii averages only about one tornado per year; between 1950 and 2018, the state recorded just 42 total, making this forecast particularly unusual for residents accustomed to other weather threats.

The Big Island faced somewhat lighter conditions, with rainfall projections of 100 to 200 millimeters expected, though localized peaks could reach 305 millimeters. Hurricane-force winds would extend outward 85 kilometers from the storm's center, while tropical storm-force winds would reach 280 kilometers in all directions. Kauai County officials issued stark warnings about the ocean, urging residents and visitors to avoid the shoreline entirely as swells generated by Lowell promised life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents. "Residents should not assume conditions will be limited to areas near the storm's center," the county government stated, emphasizing that the threat would spread across the entire island.

In Lihue, the 8,000-person airport town on Kauai's south shore, residents moved quickly to secure supplies before Monday's arrival. Supermarket shelves emptied as people stockpiled food, water, and fuel. Real estate agent Lori Benkert, who manages dozens of properties across the island, purchased an extra 4.5-kilogram container of propane for cooking if the power grid failed. She had already boarded up two houses on the island's western side. "We'll lose some power, probably have some trees, a bunch of tree limbs coming down," Benkert told reporters. "Everybody is probably just going to hunker down." Kauai's Emergency Management Agency advised residents to fill vehicle gas tanks, charge all electronic devices, refill medications, and prepare to remain indoors for several days once the storm arrived.

The memory of Hurricane Iniki, which struck in 1992 as a Category 4 system and remains the largest hurricane on record in Hawaii's history, weighed on residents' minds. That storm killed six people and caused billions in damage to Kauai specifically. Officials were determined to avoid a repeat, though the unpredictability of Lowell's intensity—its oscillation between Category 3 and 5 strength—made precise forecasting difficult. Meanwhile, a second storm system, Hurricane Marie, was churning 1,120 kilometers south-southwest of San Diego as a Category 1 hurricane with 120-kilometer-per-hour winds. Though Marie posed no immediate threat to Hawaii, it was expected to bring dangerous surf to Southern California and Mexico's Baja coast over the coming days. For Hawaii, all attention remained fixed on Lowell's approach and the critical hours of Monday night when the full force of the storm would make landfall.

We'll lose some power, probably have some trees, a bunch of tree limbs coming down. Everybody is probably just going to hunker down.
— Lori Benkert, real estate agent on Kauai
Residents should not assume conditions will be limited to areas near the storm's center.
— Kauai County government
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