Half of UK backs EU rejoin as Labour explores political upside of reset

Prime Minister Andy Burnham's stated desire to see Britain rejoin the European Union during his lifetime has found unexpected political ground beneath it. A sweeping poll of more than 11,000 voters conducted in mid-September by the Messina Group discovered that nearly half the country—49 percent—now backs EU membership, with only 28.5 percent opposed. The finding arrives as Burnham has begun openly exploring the political terrain around a potential reset of Britain's European relationship, announcing at Labour's conference this week that a formal review of options should include the possibility of full rejoin.

The polling carries immediate strategic weight inside Downing Street. Researchers tested how different EU relationship scenarios might affect Labour's electoral prospects and found that campaigns centered on closer European ties—particularly a fresh referendum in which the government campaigned for re-entry—could lift the party's vote share by as much as seven percentage points. That potential gain would come largely from voters currently backing the Greens and Liberal Democrats, suggesting a path to consolidate left-leaning support. The data shows that 25.9 percent of voters want Britain to rejoin immediately, while another 22.9 percent support it within three years.

Yet the political calculation remains treacherous. Two-thirds of Burnham's cabinet ministers represent constituencies that voted to leave the EU in 2016, including Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, Chancellor John Healey, and First Secretary Louise Haigh. Several senior figures have already moved to temper expectations. Deputy Leader Lucy Powell said that going beyond the EU reset plans inherited from the previous government was "not possible nor desirable." Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds flagged "constitutional questions" creating business uncertainty. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood warned that rejoining was neither simple nor necessarily affordable. These public cautions reflect deeper anxiety among ministers with Leave-voting constituents about reopening divisions that have only begun to settle.

Privately, cabinet sources told the Guardian they recognize the political reality but worry about the risks. One minister acknowledged that "Brexit clearly hasn't worked and the promises made haven't been kept," yet cautioned that Burnham "definitely needs to proceed with caution because we don't want to restoke division." Another expressed skepticism about whether closer EU ties would actually solve the problems in people's lives, even as they acknowledged the necessity of a stronger European relationship in the current global context. A third noted concern that the terms on which Britain might re-enter could prove unacceptable to voters who have moved on from the question entirely.

The broader polling landscape reveals a country whose mind has shifted decisively. Fifty-two percent of voters now believe leaving the EU was wrong, compared to just 29.7 percent who think it was right. When asked whether Brexit has been a success or failure, 54.9 percent call it a failure against only 12.2 percent claiming success. Other options for closer European ties also polled strongly: keeping the current relationship while cutting trade barriers scored 48.2 percent support, a customs union 47.1 percent, and single market membership 45.1 percent. Only moving further away from Europe found limited backing at 27.9 percent.

The political opportunity is not lost on those around Burnham. Ben Judah, a former adviser to Foreign Secretary David Lammy, told the Guardian that the polling represents "a massive validation of Andy Burnham's boldness on Europe," noting that Europe has a "unique ability to unite the left and grow the Labour vote share among swing voters." The strategy emerging from Downing Street appears designed to focus blame on those who made promises about Brexit's benefits rather than attacking voters who chose to leave. Senior officials have already begun sharing this research with think tanks and pollsters as they test the political ground.

But the move carries real risk. Nigel Farage, the Reform leader, has already seized on Burnham's willingness to reopen the question, claiming it gave him "the biggest boost in my career." The fear inside government is that even exploring rejoin could energize the right-wing populist movement that has been dormant since the 2019 election. The polling also shows that arguments around immigration control and sovereignty—the emotional core of the Leave campaign—still resonate with voters. As Burnham prepares to navigate this terrain, the cabinet remains divided between those who see a genuine political opportunity and those convinced the risks of reopening old wounds outweigh any electoral gain.