In the corridors of a institution born from the ashes of world war, a quiet ballot is reshaping who will next carry the weight of humanity's highest diplomatic office. Guyana's Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett has emerged as the narrow frontrunner in the UN Security Council's second informal straw poll, edging ahead of candidates from Costa Rica and Argentina as the world body begins its search for a successor to António Guterres, whose term ends December 31. The vote is non-binding, the path to confirmation long and shadowed by the veto power of five permanent members, yet the moment carr
Guyana's Rodrigues Birkett leads UN secretary-general race in second straw poll
The institution has not been able to prevent or end conflicts
Mark
Why does a straw poll matter if it's not binding?
Mimi
It's how the council tests the water without committing. Eight votes for Rodrigues Birkett tells you something real about where support sits right now—but it also tells you who might be vulnerable to a veto later.
Mark
So Grynspan was ahead last time and now she's not. What changed?
Mimi
We don't know from the voting alone. Could be diplomats shifting their positions, could be new information about a candidate, could be backroom negotiations. The polls are designed to let that happen gradually.
Mark
What's the actual power of those five permanent members?
Mimi
Complete. Any one of them can kill a nominee. That's why the colored ballots matter in later rounds—they signal whether a P5 member has already decided to block someone, so you don't waste time on a dead candidate.
Mark
Does the General Assembly have any real say in this?
Mimi
Formally, yes. Practically, almost never. They ratify what the council recommends. The real negotiation happens in that council chamber.
Mark
What does the next secretary-general actually do about the UN's credibility problem?
Mimi
That's the hard question. The institution's weakness isn't really about who leads it—it's structural. A secretary-general can't override a veto. They can't force the council to act. They can try to be a moral voice, but that only goes so far when the permanent members are at odds.
El Pulso
- A single vote separates the frontrunner from her closest rivals, making this race as fragile and fluid as the diplomatic alliances that will ultimately decide it.
- The shadow of the veto looms over every candidate — any one of five permanent members can silently extinguish a nomination, turning encouragement into elimination.
- The UN's diminished credibility in the face of ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine creates an almost impossible mandate for whoever wins: restore faith in an institution many believe has lost its purpose.
- With Guterres's term expiring December 31, the council must move through several more informal rounds before a formal vote, compressing the window for consensus-building among deeply divided powers.
- Seven candidates remain in contention, including former heads of state and senior international officials, signaling that no single figure has yet commanded the broad coalition needed to break through.
In the corridors of a institution born from the ashes of world war, a quiet ballot is reshaping who will next carry the weight of humanity's highest diplomatic office. Guyana's Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett has emerged as the narrow frontrunner in the UN Security Council's second informal straw poll, edging ahead of candidates from Costa Rica and Argentina as the world body begins its search for a successor to António Guterres, whose term ends December 31. The vote is non-binding, the path to confirmation long and shadowed by the veto power of five permanent members, yet the moment carries consequence — for the next secretary-general will inherit an organization whose moral authority has been tested, and found wanting, by the fires of Gaza and Ukraine.
The UN Security Council's second informal straw poll on Friday produced a modest but meaningful shift in the race for the world body's top post. Guyana's Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett collected eight encouragement votes from the council's fifteen members — three discouraging votes and four abstentions rounding out the tally — enough to place her just ahead of the field. Denmark's Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, holding the council presidency this month, confirmed the result.
The outcome marks a change from July's first round, when Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan had led. Grynspan and Rafael Grossi, Argentina's head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, now each hold seven encouragement votes. Grossi faces heavier resistance, drawing six discouraging votes to Grynspan's four. Five other candidates remain in the running, among them former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and former UN General Assembly President Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador.
These informal rounds are a diplomatic rehearsal — a way for council members to map support and identify which candidates risk a veto before the formal process begins. When the council eventually moves to a binding vote, a nominee will need at least nine votes to advance, and any of the five permanent members — the United States, China, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom — can block a candidate outright. The General Assembly almost always ratifies whoever the council recommends.
The stakes extend well beyond procedure. Guterres, who has held the post since 2017, sees his second term expire on December 31. His successor will inherit an institution under profound strain — its founding promise of collective security tested by wars it could not stop, its authority questioned by the very conflicts it was designed to prevent. Whoever emerges from this careful, cautious process will face the task not merely of administering a global bureaucracy, but of persuading a skeptical world that the United Nations still matters.
The United Nations Security Council held its second informal vote on Friday to begin narrowing the field for the next secretary-general, and Guyana's chief diplomat emerged with a slight edge over her rivals. Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana received eight votes of encouragement from the council's 15 members, along with three discouraging votes and four abstentions. The result, confirmed by Denmark's Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, who holds the council presidency this month, marks a shift from the first round of balloting in July, when Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan had led the pack.
Grynspan and Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency from Argentina, now trail Rodrigues Birkett by a single vote of support. Both collected seven encouragement votes in Friday's poll. Grossi faced steeper resistance, drawing six discouraging votes compared with Grynspan's four. Five other candidates remain in contention: former Senegalese President Macky Sall, former UN General Assembly President Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, and Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne A-Baki.
These straw polls serve as a testing ground before the formal selection process begins. The Security Council will eventually recommend a candidate to the full UN General Assembly, which almost always ratifies the council's choice. A nominee needs at least nine votes in a formal council vote to advance, and any of the five permanent members—the United States, China, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom—can block a candidate entirely. The informal rounds allow diplomats to gauge where support lies and to identify which candidates face veto threats from the permanent members, information that becomes visible through colored ballots in later voting rounds.
The timing matters. Current Secretary-General António Guterres has held the post since 2017 and his second five-year term expires on December 31. While there is no formal rule preventing a third term, no secretary-general has ever served more than two. The council is expected to conduct several more straw polls before moving to a formal vote, giving candidates and member states time to build consensus or shift their positions.
The next person to hold the office will inherit an institution whose influence has eroded significantly. The UN, created in the aftermath of World War II to prevent future global conflicts, has faced mounting criticism for its inability to stop or resolve major crises. The ongoing war in Gaza, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and numerous other regional conflicts have exposed the limitations of the organization's diplomatic machinery and the constraints imposed by permanent member vetoes. Whoever wins this race will need to find ways to restore credibility to an institution that many observers believe has lost its way.
Citas Notables
The institution, formed in the aftermath of World War II, has not been able to prevent or end conflicts and crises around the world, including Israel's genocidal war on Gaza and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.— Critics of the UN's effectiveness
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