Guinea-Bissau's December Elections Postponed Indefinitely, Leaving Return to Civilian Rule in Doubt

The elections that Guinea-Bissau was supposed to hold on December 6 will not happen on that date, and nobody in government can yet say when they will. Aly Silva, spokesperson for transitional Prime Minister Ilidio Vieira Te, confirmed to DW that the parliamentary and presidential vote has been postponed until further notice. The cabinet will discuss the matter first, and only then will a new date be announced publicly. Whether the vote lands in 2027 or slips to 2028 is not yet clear.

The postponement sits on top of a crisis that began in November 2025. Voters had chosen a new parliament and president three days earlier, but before official results could be announced, the military took power on November 26 and stopped the electoral process. Both then-President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and his challenger, Fernando Dias da Costa, had claimed victory. The military leadership promised to restore constitutional order.

For lawyer and political analyst Cabi Sanha, the delay was no surprise. He told DW that it had been foreseeable, because December 6 was set as the new date but nothing was done to make a vote possible. The transitional government's own explanation is that the organizational and political conditions are missing. The deadline for submitting candidacies passed on October 6 with no applications from parties or would-be candidates. According to the prime minister, parties also never held the congresses needed to choose their candidates.

Sanha reads that as a symptom, not a cause. He points to restrictions on political activity and a lack of dialogue with the key actors in the process, and says parties and civil society have not been adequately involved. Mediation by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and by Senegal has produced no solution so far. In his words, parties cannot nominate candidates when they are barred from holding congresses or organizing rallies. He does not think logistics are the main obstacle; he sees a lack of political will to move the process forward.

Some of the opposition's leading figures are abroad. Domingos Simoes Pereira, head of the main opposition party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), was allowed to travel to Portugal in July 2026 for medical treatment after his release from detention. He had been held in pretrial detention in an investigation into an alleged coup attempt. His defense team denies the allegations and calls the proceedings politically motivated.

The constitution has become a second point of dispute. In a referendum on August 30, 2026, voters approved amendments that expand presidential powers and cut parliament from 102 seats to 65. Critics question the legitimacy of a reform prepared under military rule, without an elected parliament, and the opposition had urged a boycott. Fernando Vaz, spokesperson for the National Transitional Council, defends it as a targeted revision rather than a full rewrite, meant to help overcome instability. He said the transition offered a chance to change provisions that the military leadership felt were obstructing political development, and he rejected the charge that the president gains power at the prime minister's expense, noting that the president is head of state and the prime minister head of government.

Critics read the text differently. Under the new framework the president would appoint and dismiss the prime minister and government and, under certain conditions, dissolve parliament, while the legislature shrinks. Whether this stabilizes the country or concentrates power in the presidency remains contested.

The transitional government has also announced local elections for 2027. Sanha welcomes that in principle, since Guinea-Bissau has never held them since independence, but argues they cannot stand in for national elections. Parliamentary and presidential votes must come first, he says, with political freedoms restored so parties can pick candidates and voters have real alternatives. The next signal to watch is the cabinet's decision on a date, and whether it comes with a timetable for party congresses, nominations and campaigning.