Guinea-Bissau approves constitution expanding presidential power ahead of December elections

Guinea-Bissau held a referendum on Sunday that will reshape the country's political structure in ways that have alarmed democracy advocates. Voters approved a new constitution by a margin of 70%, according to provisional results, with turnout exceeding 55%—roughly 544,000 people casting ballots. The changes represent the first major constitutional overhaul since the nation abandoned its one-party socialist system more than thirty years ago, and they come at a pivotal moment, just months before December elections that many hope will restore stability to a country with one of Africa's most turbulent political histories.

The constitutional amendments are substantial. Parliament will shrink from 102 seats to 65. The number of electoral constituencies will drop from 29 to 12. But the most consequential change may be the new residency requirement for presidential candidates: anyone seeking the office must have lived continuously in Guinea-Bissau for at least five years before the election. That provision is widely understood as a direct challenge to diaspora-based politicians who have built followings abroad and might otherwise run for president. The military-led transitional government that has controlled the country since November framed these changes as necessary corrections to a constitution that had become a source of chronic instability.

Guinea-Bissau's political trajectory explains the urgency. Since independence from Portugal was recognized in 1974, the nation has endured at least ten coup attempts, half of which succeeded. The most recent crisis erupted after last November's presidential election, when both candidates declared victory and accused the other of electoral fraud. The military stepped in decisively, dissolving the government and establishing a transitional ruling council led by General Horta Inta-A Na Man, a former military chief of staff. That intervention set the stage for Sunday's referendum and the elections planned for December.

The general and his council have presented the constitutional changes as a path toward legitimate governance. "What we want after this referendum is to allow whoever wins the elections to see out their mandate without hindrance," Na Man said. Nelson Moreira, the second vice-president of the transitional council, argued that the 1993 constitution—the one now being replaced—had repeatedly been cited as a root cause of Guinea-Bissau's political dysfunction. The new framework, they suggest, will create conditions for a more durable government.

Not everyone sees it that way. The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, known as PAIGC, was barred from fielding a presidential candidate in last year's disputed election and has emerged as the leading opposition voice. The party called for a boycott of Sunday's referendum, characterizing it as a sham. Its leader, Domingos Simões Pereira, was blunt in his assessment: "What will happen on 30 August is the continuation of the coup d'état carried out on 26 November." The PAIGC's position reflects a broader concern among critics that the military-led government is using constitutional reform to entrench its own power rather than to genuinely democratize the system.

The 70% approval rate suggests the referendum had significant public backing, though the boycott call from a major opposition party means the actual support base may be more complicated than the headline figure indicates. What happens next will depend heavily on how the December elections unfold and whether the new constitutional framework actually produces the political stability its architects promise. For a nation that has cycled through coups and crises for half a century, the stakes are high, and the skepticism from opposition quarters reflects hard-won experience with broken promises.