Voters reject the policies but remain open to the party
A new poll of Australian voters lays bare a curious tension in the democratic imagination: the policies of One Nation are rejected by wide margins, yet the party's gravitational pull on the electorate remains strong. Conducted in the wake of Pauline Hanson's controversial National Press Club address, the Guardian Essential survey finds that frustration with the political establishment — not ideological alignment — is the deeper force drawing voters toward a party whose platform most of them oppose. It is a reminder that in moments of institutional distrust, the appeal of disruption can outweigh the appeal of any particular vision.
- One Nation's primary vote has slipped to 26%, yet its policies — from privatising the ABC to ending multiculturalism — are rejected by overwhelming majorities, some drawing support from as few as one in ten Australians.
- The contradiction is stark: 52% of voters say they would definitely or potentially vote One Nation, driven not by policy conviction but by immigration anxiety and a deep distrust of the major parties.
- Gina Rinehart's shadow looms over the party's credibility, with half of One Nation-curious voters expressing concern about the billionaire's influence on its direction.
- A majority of those considering the party worry it simply lacks the skilled team needed to govern — suggesting the openness to One Nation is provisional, restless, and easily lost.
- Meanwhile, both major party leaders remain underwater in approval, and public opinion on abortion has quietly tightened, signalling a broader ideological restlessness across the electorate.
A Guardian Essential poll of over a thousand Australian voters has exposed a striking paradox: One Nation's core policies are being rejected decisively, yet more than half the country remains open to voting for Pauline Hanson's party at the next election.
The survey, taken after Hanson's controversial National Press Club address, found the party's primary vote slipping two points to 26%. When voters were asked about One Nation's signature proposals, the rejection was emphatic — only 11% supported closing SBS, 15% backed privatising the ABC, and just 20% would support ending multiculturalism. Withdrawal from the United Nations and the winding back of workplace protections fared little better. Essential Media's Peter Lewis suggested the numbers point to One Nation's support beginning to plateau.
And yet 29% of voters said they would definitely vote One Nation, with another 23% open to it — a combined 52%. Among those considering the party, immigration was the dominant concern, followed by frustration that major parties were not listening. It is a coalition built on grievance more than conviction.
That fragility shows in the doubts voters carry. Fifty-one percent of One Nation-curious respondents worried the party lacked a skilled team to govern the country, while half expressed unease about the influence of mining billionaire Gina Rinehart. Forty-five percent feared the party would set Australians against one another.
Elsewhere, Prime Minister Albanese's approval edged upward while remaining deeply negative, and Opposition leader Angus Taylor showed modest gains. Hanson, by contrast, continues to outperform both major party leaders on net approval — a measure of just how thoroughly the political centre has lost the room.
The poll also captured a quiet but notable shift on abortion: support for legal access in all circumstances fell 12 points since late 2024, with 72% still backing legality in some or all cases but the restrictive position gaining ground — a sign that the culture war terrain is shifting beneath the feet of every party.
A new poll reveals a paradox at the heart of Australian politics: voters are decisively rejecting One Nation's signature policies, yet more than half the country remains open to voting for Pauline Hanson's party at the next election.
The Guardian Essential survey of 1,017 voters, conducted last week following Hanson's controversial press club address, found One Nation's primary vote slipping two points to 26%, down from 28% the previous month. Labor gained a point to reach 30%, while the Coalition held steady at 23%. The movements sit within the poll's margin of error, though they align with other recent surveys—Newspoll, Redbridge, and Roy Morgan among them—showing similar modest shifts away from One Nation and toward Labor.
When asked about One Nation's core proposals, the rejection was emphatic. Only 15% of respondents backed Hanson's push to privatize the ABC. Support for closing SBS dropped to just 11%. After weeks of media attention on Hanson's calls for a "monoculture" in Australia, only 20% said they would support ending multiculturalism. Withdrawing from the United Nations drew support from 18%, as did proposals to weaken workplace protections in favor of employers. Even on abortion—where One Nation has staked out a more restrictive position—only 26% backed stopping the procedure after 20 weeks, and only 25% supported abandoning the renewables transition in favor of fossil fuels. Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, suggested the data indicates One Nation's support may be "plateauing."
Yet the same voters who reject these policies remain remarkably open to supporting the party. Twenty-nine percent said they would definitely vote One Nation at the next election, with another 23% saying they would consider it—a combined 52%. For comparison, 27% said they would definitely vote Labor with 23% open to it (50% total), while the Coalition managed just 18% definite support and 8% for the Nationals. The Liberals and Nationals did show larger pools of persuadable voters, with 32% open to the Coalition and 36% open to the Nationals, suggesting potential ground for the opposition to reclaim soft One Nation voters.
Among those considering One Nation, immigration emerged as the dominant driver, followed by frustration that major parties were not listening and a desire to give a different politician a chance. Concerns about inequality ranked third. But when asked what worried them about One Nation itself, 51% cited concerns that the party lacked "a team of skilled people to run Australia." Half expressed worry about the party's backing by billionaire mining magnate Gina Rinehart, while 45% feared One Nation would "turn Australians against each other."
Elsewhere in the polling, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's approval ticked up slightly—his approval rating rose one point to 38% while disapproval fell three points to 51%—though his net approval remained underwater at minus 13. Opposition leader Angus Taylor gained three points on approval to reach 36%, with disapproval holding at 37%, leaving him at a net approval of minus one. Hanson, notably, maintains far higher net approval ratings than either major party leader.
On abortion specifically, the poll found a notable shift since November 2024. The proportion saying abortion should be legal in all cases fell 12 points to 29%, while those backing legality in most cases held at 42%. Taken together, 72% support abortion being legal in some or all cases—down 7 points since late 2024—while 28% now support restrictions in some or all cases, up 7 points. The movement suggests a tightening of public opinion on a question that has become increasingly central to Australian political debate.
Notable Quotes
One Nation's support may be plateauing— Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
How do you square this circle—voters rejecting One Nation's actual policies but still willing to vote for them?
It's not really a circle. People aren't voting for One Nation because they love SBS closure or multiculturalism bans. They're voting for what One Nation represents: a protest against the major parties, a voice on immigration, a sense that someone's finally listening.
So the policies don't matter?
They matter, but they're secondary. The policies are almost window dressing. What matters is the feeling that One Nation is different, that it's not part of the establishment that's failed you.
But half the people considering One Nation think it can't actually govern. Doesn't that worry them?
It does worry them. But not enough to stop them considering it. That's the real tension. They're willing to take the risk because they're angrier at the current system than they are afraid of the alternative.
What about Gina Rinehart? That seems like a concrete concern.
It is. Half the voters who might support One Nation worry about her influence. But again, it's not a dealbreaker for most. It's a concern they're willing to live with if they think One Nation will shake things up.
Is One Nation actually plateauing, or is this just noise in the polls?
The data suggests plateauing. The vote's been hovering in the mid-to-high 20s for months. But plateauing at 26% is still extraordinary for a minor party. That's not noise. That's a structural shift in Australian politics.