In the quiet arithmetic that precedes every election, a veteran politician is measuring two futures against each other. Paul Goldsmith, a long-serving National list MP who has held the Epsom contest for years, is weighing whether to trade that familiar ground for an electorate abandoned in the wake of Chris Penk's fall. Penk's failed challenge to Christopher Luxon's leadership left a vacancy in Kaipara ki Mahurangi, a seat with deep National roots, and the choice before Goldsmith is really about security: whether to chase a win where the party is strong or stay where he believes he can still p
Goldsmith Weighs Switch to Kaipara ki Mahurangi After Penk's Exit Leaves National Seat Open
In the quiet arithmetic that precedes every election, a veteran politician is measuring two futures against each other. Paul Goldsmith, a long-serving National list MP who has held the Epsom contest for years, is weighing whether to trade that familiar ground for an electorate abandoned in the wake of Chris Penk's fall. Penk's failed challenge to Christopher Luxon's leadership left a vacancy in Kaipara ki Mahurangi, a seat with deep National roots, and the choice before Goldsmith is really about security: whether to chase a win where the party is strong or stay where he believes he can still prevail. A decision is expected within days, and it will show how a party's internal tremors ripple into the shape of its candidate lineup.
Paul Goldsmith, one of National's most senior list MPs, says he is thinking about leaving the Epsom seat he has contested at every election since 2011 and running in the electorate left empty by Chris Penk. Penk announced he would not seek re-election hours after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stripped him of his portfolios and named him as the person behind a challenge to Luxon's leadership.
The logic of a move is easy to see. Epsom is held solidly by Act's David Seymour, and Goldsmith has never campaigned hard there. Polling suggests National may bring in only a few list MPs, and an electorate win would spare him from depending on the list to return to Parliament. Kaipara ki Mahurangi, formerly Helensville, has always been National territory, and Sir John Key held it for his whole career.
Goldsmith has said he will likely stay where he is, and he insists he feels confident about Epsom. Labour's Willie Jackson had already raised the possibility, and Goldsmith's workload has grown sharply as he has taken over Penk's defence, veterans, intelligence and space portfolios on top of his own.
The upheaval began when a Herald report described discontent in caucus and a possible challenge from Chris Bishop or Nicola Stanford. Luxon called an emergency meeting, and a confidence vote followed, which he won. Goldsmith's decision, due within days, will show whether this turmoil reshapes National's candidates for 2026.
Paul Goldsmith, one of National's most senior list MPs, says he is "thinking about" abandoning the Epsom seat he has contested at every election since 2011 and running instead in the electorate left empty by the sacked minister Chris Penk.
The seat is Kaipara ki Mahurangi. Penk announced on Wednesday night that he would not seek re-election, hours after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stripped him of all his portfolios and identified him as the person who launched a challenge to Luxon's leadership of National.
The interview in which Goldsmith floated the idea was conducted by Tame. Goldsmith said he would have to decide within the next few days, but added that he would "most likely stay where I am." Pressed on whether he would return to Parliament on the list, he rejected the suggestion that he might not: "yes, I will, we're going to do well."
The logic of a move is plain enough. Goldsmith has never campaigned hard in Epsom, which is held solidly by Act leader David Seymour. Current polling suggests National may bring in only a very limited number of list MPs, and winning an electorate would shield Goldsmith from depending on the party list to get back into Parliament.
Kaipara ki Mahurangi has a strong National pedigree. Formerly called Helensville, its boundaries were redrawn for the 2020 General Election. National has always held it, and Sir John Key represented it for his entire political career, from 2002 to 2017.
The speculation did not start with Goldsmith. Labour's Willie Jackson raised it earlier this week while appearing alongside the Justice Minister on a Herald NOW panel. "They have got a vacancy ... they will shift Goldie there. Why wouldn't they? He is not going to get in off the list, is he?" Jackson said on Ryan Bridge TODAY. Goldsmith answered that he had a "feeling I'm going to win Epsom this time around."
Goldsmith's workload has grown sharply this week. He picked up Penk's Defence, Veterans, Space, GCSB and NZSIS portfolios, on top of Justice, Media and Communications, Pacific Peoples, Public Service and Digitising Government, Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations, and Arts, Culture, and Heritage.
The upheaval began after a Herald story reported discontent within the National caucus and a potential leadership challenge from Chris Bishop or Nicola Stanford. Luxon called an emergency caucus meeting on Tuesday and later confirmed that Penk's challenge had prompted a confidence vote, which Luxon won.
Tame also asked whether Penk had acted alone or was counting numbers for another would-be leader. Goldsmith first said "I don't know," then changed course, saying that to the best of his knowledge Penk was acting alone.
Goldsmith's decision is due within days. It will show whether the turmoil around Penk's challenge ends up reshaping National's candidate lineup for the 2026 election.
Möchten Sie die ganze Geschichte?
Das Original lesen bei The New Zealand Herald ↗
Politics & Governance