In the slow arithmetic of a democracy preparing for its next reckoning, a senior politician has chosen the ground on which he will stand. Paul Goldsmith, a National MP who sits in Parliament from the party list rather than from a seat of his own, has said he will contest Epsom rather than the Kaipara ki Mahurangi electorate vacated when Chris Penk stepped back after his failed leadership bid. The choice reflects a quieter truth about his position: his survival in Parliament depends on a seat that has long leaned toward a partner party, while his party's wider support continues to thin. What he
Goldsmith Hints Why He Won't Contest Penk's Seat, Says Epsom Is 'Definitely the Place'
"Give themselves a treat" with both votes
Mark
Why does it matter where Goldsmith stands? He's a senior MP, surely he's safe.
Mimi
That's the catch. He's a list MP, and he's only there because Epsom voters keep electing the Act candidate while giving National their party vote.
Mark
So he owes his seat to a tacit deal?
Mimi
In effect. National has quietly signalled to its Epsom voters to give their candidate votes to Act in past elections. Now he's asking them to give both votes to National.
Luke
Careful, though. "Tacitly signalled" is the reporting's description. There's no formal agreement quoted here.
Mark
And what's the risk for him?
Mimi
National's party vote is declining, and on current polling it's unlikely to get many list seats. If he doesn't win Epsom, he may be out of Parliament.
Luke
"May" is doing real work. That's a projection from current polling, not a result.
Mark
What about Penk's seat, Kaipara ki Mahurangi?
Mimi
Goldsmith called it a beautiful seat and admitted he'd thought about it, then ruled it out on Sunday.
Luke
And the headline says he "hinted" at the reason, the "rules". He explicitly declined to explain them, so we don't know what rules he meant.
Mark
Anything else unknown?
Luke
Whether Epsom voters will actually follow his "treat" advice. Nothing in the reporting tells us that yet.
Il Polso
- Penk's sacking from his portfolios after a leadership bid has left a rift running through National's ranks and its campaign plans.
- Goldsmith briefly weighed a move to the vacant Kaipara ki Mahurangi seat before publicly ruling it out, leaving reporters with a hint of unspoken 'rules.'
- As a list MP reliant on Epsom, Goldsmith faces the real risk of losing his place in Parliament if National's declining party vote fails to carry him.
- He is pressing Epsom's National voters to back him with both votes, breaking a long pattern of quietly giving their candidate vote to Act.
- Whether that appeal lands will decide if Goldsmith keeps his seat in Parliament, and the outcome remains unsettled as the campaign tightens.
In the slow arithmetic of a democracy preparing for its next reckoning, a senior politician has chosen the ground on which he will stand. Paul Goldsmith, a National MP who sits in Parliament from the party list rather than from a seat of his own, has said he will contest Epsom rather than the Kaipara ki Mahurangi electorate vacated when Chris Penk stepped back after his failed leadership bid. The choice reflects a quieter truth about his position: his survival in Parliament depends on a seat that has long leaned toward a partner party, while his party's wider support continues to thin. What he asks of Epsom's voters is, in effect, a departure from an old habit of sharing their votes.
Paul Goldsmith walked away from reporters rather than press further on why he would not contest Chris Penk's electorate. He had said only that he would not go into 'those rules' and that he was very happy to be Epsom's candidate. The question had come up because of what followed Penk's sacking from his ministerial portfolios after he launched a bid for the National Party leadership. Penk later announced he would not stand in Kaipara ki Mahurangi at the election, leaving that seat without a sitting candidate.
Goldsmith had openly considered the move, calling the seat beautiful, but on Sunday he settled the matter. He had given it a moment's thought, he said, and decided Epsom was definitely the place. His reasons are tied to his own footing. As a list MP, he has stayed in Parliament because Epsom voters have reliably returned Act's candidate, not National's, and his seat in Parliament rests on that arrangement.
That footing has become less secure. National's party vote is slipping, and polling suggests few list seats for the party. If Goldsmith does not win Epsom himself, he may leave Parliament at this election. So his appeal to Epsom voters breaks with precedent: where National has usually quietly steered its supporters to Act, he has urged them to give National both their party and candidate votes, to 'give themselves a treat.'
What happens next depends on whether those National-leaning voters answer him, and how the fallout from Penk's failed bid shapes the party's campaign.
Paul Goldsmith walked away from reporters and into the debating chamber rather than answer another question. Moments earlier, asked about why he would not stand in Chris Penk's electorate, the senior National MP had said only that he would not go into "those rules", and that he was very happy to be the candidate for Epsom.
The question arose because of what happened to Penk last Wednesday. Penk was sacked from his ministerial portfolios after launching a bid for the National Party leadership. He later said he would not contest his electorate of Kaipara ki Mahurangi at the upcoming election, leaving the seat without its sitting candidate.
Goldsmith had briefly entertained the idea of taking it on. He described Kaipara ki Mahurangi as a "beautiful seat", and he was open about having considered the move. On Sunday he ruled out switching electorates. He said he had given it momentary thought, but on reflection decided that Epsom was definitely the place.
The reasons for staying in Epsom are bound up with his own position. Goldsmith is a list MP, and he holds that status because voters in Epsom have reliably returned the Act Party candidate rather than National's. That arrangement has kept him in Parliament through the list rather than through the electorate.
The arithmetic is now less comfortable. National's party vote is declining, and on current polling the party is unlikely to win many list seats. If Goldsmith does not win Epsom outright, he may be out of Parliament after this election.
That makes his pitch to Epsom voters notable. In previous elections, National has tacitly signalled to its voters in the electorate to give their candidate votes to Act. This time Goldsmith is asking for something different. He said National voters should "give themselves a treat" and give National both their party vote and their candidate vote.
The reference to "rules" in his answer to reporters is the hint that gave the story its headline, though he declined to elaborate on what rules he meant. His exit into the chamber ended the exchange there.
What to watch now is whether Epsom's National-leaning voters respond to his request and split from their habit of backing Act, and how the fallout from Penk's failed leadership bid shapes National's campaign as the election approaches.
Citazioni salienti
I momentarily gave it some thought but on reflection, I decided Epsom was definitely the place.— Paul Goldsmith
I'm not going into those rules, but I'm very happy to be the candidate for Epsom.— Paul Goldsmith
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Politics & Governance