On January 30, gold suffered its sharpest single-session decline since 1983, shedding nearly 10 percent and falling below the $5,000-per-ounce threshold it had only recently crossed, while silver endured its worst day on record with a 27 percent collapse. The tremor was triggered by a Federal Reserve chair nomination and rising margin requirements, but seasoned observers of markets understand that even the most powerful tides pull back before surging forward. Most analysts read this not as the end of gold's ascent, but as the earth settling beneath a structure still being built — with major in
Gold's Bull Run Seen Intact Despite Historic Pullback
A significant correction, but the bull run has not ended.
Mark
So gold dropped nearly 10 percent in one day—that sounds catastrophic. Why aren't people panicking?
Mimi
Because analysts see it as a correction within a longer upward trend, not the end of the rally. Gold had gotten ahead of itself, and this pullback brings it back to where it was just three weeks ago.
Luke
But we should note—that's one analyst's framing. Some people, like Razaqzada, are saying we don't know if the bottom is in yet. The consensus is optimistic, but it's not unanimous.
Mark
What caused the drop in the first place?
Mimi
Two things happened close together. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, and CME Group raised margin requirements on precious metals futures, making it more expensive to hold speculative positions.
Luke
So it wasn't a fundamental shift in gold's value—it was a technical trigger combined with a policy signal. That's worth separating out.
Mark
And the forecasts for later this year—how confident should we be in those?
Mimi
UBS says above $6,200, JP Morgan says $6,300, Deutsche Bank says $6,000. They're all betting on Federal Reserve rate cuts supporting gold prices.
Luke
Those are three major institutions, which carries weight. But they're all making the same bet—that rates will fall and that will push gold higher. If that assumption breaks, the forecasts break too. We don't know for certain the Fed will cut twice.
Mark
What about silver? It fell even harder.
Mimi
Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial commodity, so it gets pulled in different directions. The forecasts for it are mixed.
Luke
That's honest reporting—when the outlook is genuinely unclear, say so. We have the gold story fairly well mapped. Silver is still a question mark.
Le Pouls
- Gold's near-10% single-day collapse and silver's historic 27% plunge on January 30 erased months of gains in a matter of hours, rattling investors who had watched both metals climb to extraordinary heights.
- Two catalysts ignited the selloff: President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve unsettled rate expectations, while CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements forced speculative traders to unwind positions at speed.
- The damage was severe but contained in time — gold simply fell back to price levels it had held three weeks prior, leading analysts to frame the episode as a sharp but ultimately temporary consolidation within a broader bull market.
- Major banks including UBS, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank are holding firm on year-end targets of $6,000 to $6,300 per ounce, anchored by expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and durable investor demand.
- Silver's path forward remains far less certain, its dual identity as both precious metal and industrial commodity leaving forecasters divided, while gold's narrative — correction absorbed, bull run intact — reads with considerably more clarity.
On January 30, gold suffered its sharpest single-session decline since 1983, shedding nearly 10 percent and falling below the $5,000-per-ounce threshold it had only recently crossed, while silver endured its worst day on record with a 27 percent collapse. The tremor was triggered by a Federal Reserve chair nomination and rising margin requirements, but seasoned observers of markets understand that even the most powerful tides pull back before surging forward. Most analysts read this not as the end of gold's ascent, but as the earth settling beneath a structure still being built — with major institutions forecasting prices between $6,000 and $6,300 per ounce before the year is out.
Gold's collapse on January 30 was the kind of move that stops trading floors cold. The metal shed nearly 10 percent in a single session, falling back below $5,000 per ounce just days after crossing that milestone for the first time. Silver's fall was even more severe — a 27 percent drop in one day, the worst in its recorded history. Across two sessions, gold lost more than 13 percent and silver nearly 34 percent, wiping out much of what investors had accumulated since the year began.
Two events set the selloff in motion. President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve shifted expectations around monetary policy, while CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements on precious metals futures made it suddenly more expensive to hold speculative positions — prompting a rapid unwind. From its recent peak near $5,594 per ounce, gold fell to around $4,700, a drop of nearly $900.
Independent analyst Ross Norman offered a steadying read on the damage: gold had simply returned to where it had been three weeks earlier. A correction of this kind, he argued, does not signal the end of a bull run — it may even clear the way for longer-term investors to rebuild positions at more reasonable prices, replacing speculative froth with more durable demand.
The major banks are not retreating from their optimism. UBS sees gold above $6,200 per ounce later in 2026, JP Morgan projects $6,300 by year-end, and Deutsche Bank holds a $6,000 forecast, all underpinned by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice this year — a development that historically favors gold, which carries no yield and grows more attractive as rates decline.
Not everyone is ready to call the bottom. Analyst Fawad Razaqzada cautioned that additional selling pressure could still emerge, and metals trader Tai Wong suggested a period of consolidation may precede any renewed climb. Silver's trajectory remains the more uncertain of the two, its price pulled in competing directions by investment flows and industrial demand alike. Gold, for now, carries the cleaner story: a historic stumble, but a bull run that most believe has not yet run its course.
Gold prices collapsed on January 30 in a way that hadn't been seen since 1983. The metal shed nearly 10 percent in a single session, plummeting below the $5,000-per-ounce threshold it had crossed just days before. Silver fell even harder that same day, dropping 27 percent—the worst single-session performance in its recorded history. Over the two-day stretch, gold lost more than 13 percent of its value and silver nearly 34 percent, erasing much of what investors had gained since the start of the year.
The speed and scale of the decline was historic, but analysts who track the precious metals markets are reading it as a correction within a larger upward trend, not a reversal. The sell-off followed what many describe as an overextended rally that had pushed gold from a peak of $5,594.82 per ounce down to around $4,700—a drop of nearly $900. Two events triggered the move: President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve, and CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements on precious metals futures contracts, which made speculative positions more expensive to hold.
Ross Norman, an independent analyst, offered perspective on the scale of the damage. He noted that while the fall was large and fast, gold had simply returned to price levels seen three weeks earlier. "This is a significant correction," he said, "but it does not, by any stretch of the imagination, signify the bull run has ended." The pullback may actually serve a purpose: by discouraging speculative buying, it could create room for longer-term strategic investors to rebuild positions at lower prices.
The consensus among major financial institutions is that gold will move higher from here. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo forecast gold reaching above $6,200 per ounce later in 2026. JP Morgan went further, projecting $6,300 by year-end. Deutsche Bank maintained its forecast of $6,000 for the year, citing sustained investor demand as the foundation. These projections rest partly on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice during 2026—a development that would support gold, which generates no yield and becomes more attractive when rates fall.
Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, suggested the market could enter a period of consolidation over the coming weeks and months before resuming its climb. But not all analysts are convinced the worst has passed. Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, cautioned that it remains too early to declare gold has found a bottom, warning that additional selling pressure could emerge.
Silver's outlook remains murkier than gold's. Because silver functions both as a precious metal and as an industrial commodity, its price movements reflect competing pressures—investment demand on one side, manufacturing demand on the other. The 27 percent single-day plunge left forecasters divided on what comes next. Gold, by contrast, has a clearer narrative: the correction is seen as temporary, the bull run intact, and the path toward new records still open.
Citations marquantes
This is a significant correction but it does not, by any stretch of the imagination, signify the bull run has ended.— Ross Norman, independent analyst
It is far too early to suggest gold has found a bottom yet.— Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com
Envie de l'histoire complète ?
Lire l'original sur Reuters ↗
General News