On a Wednesday morning in November 2023, Indian gold traders watched prices climb as a distant decision in the United States rippled outward. Softer inflation figures in America had weakened the dollar to a ten-week low, and because gold is priced in dollars, it became cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Analysts read the slowing inflation as a sign that the Federal Reserve might be finished raising interest rates, and the metal's long story of safe-haven value found new footing in that quiet hope.
Gold Rises as Soft US Inflation Data Drags Dollar Index to 10-Week Low
A softer inflation reading, a weaker dollar, and gold found buyers within minutes.
Mark
Why did gold jump on Wednesday morning?
Mimi
US inflation data showed underlying price growth slowed in October. That pushed the dollar index to a 10-week low near 104, and gold got a bid.
Mark
How does a softer inflation reading connect to gold?
Mimi
Analysts say it raises the odds the Federal Reserve is finished hiking rates. A weaker dollar usually helps gold.
Luke
Careful, though. 'Raises the odds' is not 'the Fed is done.' That's the analysts' reading, not a Fed statement.
Mark
What about the war angle?
Mimi
Amit Sajeja of Motilal Oswal said the Israel-Hamas war should cushion any big dip in gold.
Luke
Notably, that's one analyst's expectation. The piece offers no data on how much the war is actually driving buying.
Mark
What levels matter?
Mimi
Spot support is $1,935 and resistance $1,980. On MCX, support is ₹58,300 and resistance ₹60,300. A decisive break above that could point to ₹62,000.
Luke
And that ₹62,000 target is conditional, one broker's projection. The intraday high of ₹60,224 hasn't even cleared ₹60,300 yet.
Le Pouls
- Gold surged in Indian markets within minutes of the opening bell, touching an intraday high of ₹60,224 per 10 grams.
- A softer US inflation reading dragged the dollar index toward 104, a ten-week low, and buyers rushed in.
- Analysts urge buy-on-dips positioning, with the Israel-Hamas war cited as a brake on any sharp fall.
- Traders are fixed on spot support near $1,935 an ounce, while a decisive push above ₹60,300 on MCX could open the way toward ₹62,000.
On a Wednesday morning in November 2023, Indian gold traders watched prices climb as a distant decision in the United States rippled outward. Softer inflation figures in America had weakened the dollar to a ten-week low, and because gold is priced in dollars, it became cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Analysts read the slowing inflation as a sign that the Federal Reserve might be finished raising interest rates, and the metal's long story of safe-haven value found new footing in that quiet hope.
The commodity market had barely opened on Wednesday when gold futures in India leapt to an intraday high of ₹60,224 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange. The December contract opened higher, and buyers were quick to act.
The spark came from across the ocean. Fresh United States consumer price data showed that underlying inflation had cooled in October, and the dollar index slipped to a ten-week low near 104. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for holders of other currencies, and the demand followed. Spot gold hovered around $1,965 an ounce internationally, while silver moved in a narrower band, opening near ₹71,794 per kilogram on MCX.
HDFC Securities' Anuj Gupta called the outlook positive, pointing to the dollar's decline and to the inflation data, which he said made it more likely the Federal Reserve had finished hiking rates. Motilal Oswal's Amit Sajeja recommended buying on dips, noting that the Israel-Hamas war could limit any steep drop in the metal.
Sajeja named the levels to watch: spot support near $1,935 and resistance near $1,980, with MCX support at ₹58,300 and resistance at ₹60,300. A decisive break above ₹60,300, he said, could carry prices toward ₹62,000. These are individual analysts' views, not Mint's, and readers should consult certified experts before acting.
Within minutes of the commodity market's opening bell on Wednesday, gold futures in India had jumped to an intraday high of ₹60,224 per 10 grams. The December 2023 contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) opened higher, and buyers appeared early.
The trigger came from the United States. The dollar index fell to a 10-week low, close to the 104 level, after fresh US consumer price index data showed that underlying inflation slowed in October. A weaker dollar tends to make gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, and the buying followed. In the international market, spot gold was trading around $1,965 per ounce.
Silver moved too, though in a narrower band. On MCX it opened at ₹71,794 per kg and touched an intraday high of ₹71,795 within seconds of the open. Internationally, silver was around $23 per ounce.
Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity and Currency at HDFC Securities, described the overall outlook for gold as positive. His reasoning rested on the dollar's fall against major global currencies and on the inflation data, which he said raised the odds that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates.
Amit Sajeja, Vice President of Research at Motilal Oswal, advised a buy-on-dips approach. He pointed to the Israel-Hamas war as a factor expected to put brakes on any big drop in the yellow metal. He also said inflation is going to put pressure on the dollar, which supports gold's rally.
Sajeja laid out the levels he is watching. For spot gold, immediate support sits around $1,935 per ounce, with a major hurdle at $1,980. On MCX, immediate support is at ₹58,300 per 10 grams, while resistance is at ₹60,300. If MCX gold breaks decisively above ₹60,300, he said, the metal could climb toward ₹62,000.
These are the views of individual analysts, not of Mint, and investors are advised to consult certified experts before making decisions. For now, the numbers to watch are the $1,935 spot support and the ₹60,300 MCX ceiling.
Citations marquantes
Overall outlook for gold is positive as the US dollar has fallen against major global currencies, and softer inflation raises the odds the Fed is done hiking.— Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity & Currency, HDFC Securities (paraphrased)
The Israel-Hamas war is expected to put brakes on any big dip in gold; a decisive break above ₹60,300 could take MCX gold toward ₹62,000.— Amit Sajeja, VP Research, Motilal Oswal (paraphrased)
Envie de l'histoire complète ?
Lire l'original sur Livemint ↗
Economy & Finance