On a late October Wednesday, gold climbed back above four thousand dollars an ounce, reclaiming ground it had surrendered earlier in the week. The lift came from a quiet recalculation happening in trading rooms around the world: a growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December, which would loosen the grip on money and make metals that pay nothing to hold look more appealing. Silver rose alongside it, as the old instinct to store value in something solid reasserted itself against a backdrop of uncertainty about where the economy and global trade are headin
Gold Rebounds Above $4,000 as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Climb; Silver Jumps 2.4%
Powell's tone could flip gold's rally into overdrive or send it below $3,950
Mark
Gold is back above $4,000. What actually pushed it there?
Mimi
Mostly rate-cut expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool shows about a 75% chance of a quarter-point cut in December, the dollar index fell to 103.85, and the 10-year yield dropped below 4.30%.
Mark
And silver went along with it?
Mimi
It rose 2.4% to $48.15, recovering from one-month lows after profit-taking. It's up nearly 60% this year, gold about 50%.
Luke
Worth noting the article's own figures wobble. Futures are given as $4,017.20 in the text but $4,031.40 in the snapshot, and silver is $48.15 in one place and $48.17 in another. Different timestamps, probably, but it isn't explained.
Mark
Does Powell's press conference settle things?
Mimi
It's the swing factor. A dovish tone could push the dollar below 103.50; a hawkish one could send gold back under $3,950.
Luke
Also, the 75% is a market-implied probability, not a Fed commitment. The Powell comment is described as a hint, conditional on inflation cooling and labor data softening.
Mark
What about the $4,980 forecast for next year?
Luke
That's an analyst prediction relayed through KITCO from a conference. It's a forecast, not a finding, and the same article says rallies often correct.
Mimi
Friday's PCE data and the Trump–Xi meeting are the next things that could move it.
O Pulso
- Gold surged 1.8% to $4,017.20 as traders bet roughly 75% on a December Fed rate cut, the strongest intraday rebound in nearly two weeks.
- Silver jumped 2.4% to $48.15, climbing back from one-month lows after a week of profit-taking.
- A weakening dollar at 103.85, its lowest in three weeks, and Treasury yields slipping below 4.30% are pushing money toward precious metals.
- Powell's press conference and Friday's PCE inflation report now stand between gold and a push toward $4,100, or a fall back below $3,950.
- Trump's meeting with Xi at the APEC Summit adds a trade wildcard that could ease safe-haven demand even as it stirs technical moves.
On a late October Wednesday, gold climbed back above four thousand dollars an ounce, reclaiming ground it had surrendered earlier in the week. The lift came from a quiet recalculation happening in trading rooms around the world: a growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December, which would loosen the grip on money and make metals that pay nothing to hold look more appealing. Silver rose alongside it, as the old instinct to store value in something solid reasserted itself against a backdrop of uncertainty about where the economy and global trade are heading.
Gold climbed back over $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday, recovering ground it had lost earlier in the week. December futures rose 1.8% to $4,017.20, the metal's strongest intraday rebound in nearly two weeks. The engine behind the move was the Federal Reserve. Traders had begun pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool putting the odds near 75%. Lower rates tend to weaken the dollar and make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, and the rest of the market followed that logic.
The dollar index slipped to 103.85, its lowest in three weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4.30%. Investors also returned to the largest gold-backed fund in the world, which took in more than six tons on Tuesday. Silver rose 2.4% to $48.15, extending its weekly gain toward 5% after bouncing from one-month lows. Platinum and palladium also advanced. For the year, silver is up nearly 60% and gold about 50%, buoyed by central bank purchases and a steady hunt for safe havens.
All eyes now turn to Powell's press conference, where a second straight cut is widely expected. A measured, dovish tone could push the dollar below 103.50 and drag yields lower, while a hawkish warning on inflation or strong consumer spending could stall the rally. Trade diplomacy adds another layer, as President Trump prepared to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit. Friday's PCE inflation figures will offer a final clue. Analysts caution that sharp rallies often give way to corrections, so the coming sessions will show whether this is the start of a new leg higher or only a brief bounce.
Gold climbed back over $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday, recovering ground it had lost earlier in the week. December futures rose 1.8% to $4,017.20, while spot gold traded near $4,008. The Economic Times described it as the metal's strongest intraday rebound in nearly two weeks.
The push came from the Federal Reserve. Traders were pricing in a rate cut at the December meeting, and the CME FedWatch Tool put the odds of a 25-basis-point reduction at about 75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks had hinted that a cut was possible if inflation keeps cooling and labor market data softens. Lower rates tend to weaken the dollar and make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
The other numbers moved the same way. The US dollar index slipped 0.42% to 103.85, its lowest in three weeks, which makes gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.30%. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest gold-backed fund in the world, took in more than 6 tons on Tuesday, a sign of renewed institutional buying.
Silver followed. Futures rose 2.4% to $48.15 an ounce, stretching the weekly gain to nearly 5%. The metal was recovering from one-month lows reached after a wave of profit-taking the previous week. Traders credited gold's momentum and hopes that global stimulus would lift manufacturing. Platinum rose 0.9% to $1,040 and palladium gained 1.2% to $1,095. For the year, silver is up nearly 60% and gold about 50%, supported by central bank buying and demand for safe havens amid global uncertainty.
On the charts, analysts see support near $3,940. A sustained move above $4,030 could open the way to $4,080–$4,100. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the market is pricing in easier monetary conditions and gold is reclaiming its safe-haven premium.
The day's central event was Powell's press conference. Markets widely expected the Fed to deliver a second straight 25-basis-point cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, after September's "risk-management" reduction aimed at supporting the economy through labor market troubles. A cautious, dovish tone could push the dollar index below 103.50 and pull yields lower. A hawkish emphasis on inflation risks or strong consumer spending could stall gold and silver and lift the dollar. The article warned that a bad outcome could send gold back below $3,950.
Trade politics were a second thread. President Donald Trump was due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday at the APEC Summit in South Korea. Trump said he hoped to make a deal that would be good for both sides. The article notes that trade optimism trims short-term safe-haven demand, though it also feeds technical rebounds as traders reposition ahead of policy news.
Looking ahead, US PCE inflation data is due Friday, and a softer reading could cement December cut expectations. At the LBMA Global Precious Metals Conference, analysts forecast gold at $4,980.30 by next year, about 25% above current levels, according to KITCO. Experts cautioned that sharp rallies often bring corrections, and the next few sessions should show whether this is a new leg higher or a short-lived bounce.
Citações Notáveis
The market is pricing in easing monetary conditions, and gold is reclaiming its safe-haven premium.— Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy, TD Securities
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Leia o original em The Economic Times ↗
Economy & Finance