GIFT Nifty Points to Flat Dalal Street Open as Investors Test Friday's IT-Led Rebound

At about 7:12 on Monday morning, October 12, the GIFT Nifty was trading at 22,625.5, up 23 points, or 0.10 percent. The reading is an early indicator for Dalal Street, and it points to a flat start for Indian equities when the session opens.

The question hanging over the open is whether Friday's rebound can hold. That rally was sharp and led by information technology stocks. Investors now want to know if buyers will return or if the move was a brief relief. Three pressures that have weighed on sentiment have not gone away: persistent outflows by foreign institutional investors, elevated crude oil prices and a weak rupee.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, framed the Monday session in those terms. He said Indian equities are likely to stay cautious as investors look for follow-through buying after Friday's jump. In his view, that buying will show whether the recovery has enough momentum to go beyond a short-term relief rally.

He pointed to crude and the currency as the key variables for domestic stocks. WTI crude was trading around $90 to $91 a barrel, and the rupee was hovering near 96.73 against the US dollar. Costly energy and a depreciating currency can add to imported inflation and strain India's external balances. That concern is sharper because the Reserve Bank of India recently raised interest rates and moved toward calibrated monetary tightening.

Developments in the Middle East are also on investors' radar, particularly diplomatic signals between the United States and Iran. A setback in negotiations or a fresh escalation could push crude higher. If oil prices moderate and stay lower, that could ease pressure on the rupee and help domestic markets.

Across Asia, the picture on Monday was mixed. South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 1 percent in early trade. Japan's Nikkei 225 was closed for a holiday, so it offered no signal.

For now, the market has little direction from the overnight cues. The next signals will come from whether buyers follow through on Friday's rally, how crude moves, and whether US-Iran diplomacy holds or breaks down.