On a Wednesday morning in late August, the signals arriving from Singapore and Wall Street pointed toward a brighter start for Indian stocks, as the price of oil slipped and borrowing costs eased. The relief rests on a fragile thread: Iran's renewed talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, a passage through which so much of the world's energy must travel. Investors, who have spent recent weeks weighed down by high yields and expensive crude, now look toward Nvidia's earnings as the next test of whether the appetite for artificial intelligence still holds. The opening bell will show how much
GIFT Nifty Jumps 220 Points as Crude Slump and Wall Street Gains Signal Strong Sensex, Nifty Open
Oil falls, yields ease, and Nvidia waits in the wings
Mark
Start simple. What is GIFT Nifty telling us this morning?
Mimi
It's trading at 24,556, up 222 points or 0.9 percent around 7:50 am. That points to a gap-up open for the Sensex and Nifty.
Mark
And what's driving it?
Mimi
Mainly oil. Brent fell 2 percent to $86.80 after Iran said it resumed talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. That followed a drop of more than 3 percent on Tuesday.
Luke
Worth noting that those talks are Iran's statement. The reporting doesn't say what has been agreed, or whether anything will change in the strait.
Mark
So oil could reverse if the talks stall?
Mimi
The source doesn't say that, but the move rests on hope rather than a settled outcome.
Mark
What about money flows at home?
Mimi
Foreign investors bought Rs 1,593 crore on Tuesday, a second straight session, and domestic institutions added Rs 230 crore.
Luke
Two sessions is a short streak. It's encouraging, as the report says, but it isn't a trend yet.
Mark
And Nvidia?
Mimi
Its earnings come later Wednesday. US futures were already down, Nasdaq 100 by 0.5 percent, so investors are hedging a bit.
Luke
Also, GIFT Nifty is an indicator, not the opening itself. The actual open could differ.
Der Puls
- GIFT Nifty surged about 0.9 percent before the open, pointing to a sharp gap-up for the Sensex and Nifty.
- Brent crude tumbled 2 percent to $86.80 as Iran reopened talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, easing pressure on oil-importing India.
- Treasury yields eased after a bond-market selloff, offering relief to valuations and to fears about capital flowing out of emerging markets.
- Nvidia's quarterly results land later in the day, and US futures slipped in Asia as investors braced for a verdict on AI demand.
- Nifty must hold above 24,360 to push toward 24,550-24,700, while a slide would expose support near 24,000-23,800.
On a Wednesday morning in late August, the signals arriving from Singapore and Wall Street pointed toward a brighter start for Indian stocks, as the price of oil slipped and borrowing costs eased. The relief rests on a fragile thread: Iran's renewed talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, a passage through which so much of the world's energy must travel. Investors, who have spent recent weeks weighed down by high yields and expensive crude, now look toward Nvidia's earnings as the next test of whether the appetite for artificial intelligence still holds. The opening bell will show how much of this optimism survives contact with the day.
At about 7:50 on Wednesday morning, GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,556, up 222 points, or 0.9 percent. It was a clear signal that India's Sensex and Nifty would open sharply higher, lifted by a softer global mood after a session that had already gone in their favour.
The main relief came from oil. Iran said it had resumed talks with Oman over managing the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude fell 2 percent to $86.80 a barrel, following losses of more than 3 percent the day before. For an oil-importing economy like India, cheaper crude is among the most welcome news a market can receive. Wall Street added to the mood, with technology shares recovering and lower Treasury yields easing the pressure from a recent bond selloff that had weighed on valuations and emerging-market flows.
At home, Tuesday's monthly derivatives expiry had ended with late buying that helped the benchmarks recover, the Sensex closing at 77,656.09 and the Nifty at 24,334.55. Foreign investors bought Rs 1,593 crore of equities, their second straight day of net purchases, which gave the rally a steadier footing.
Caution remains. Nvidia reports later in the day, and investors want to know whether AI-related demand is still strong enough to justify heavy technology spending. US futures slipped in Asian trade in anticipation. Analysts at Bajaj Broking note that a sustained move above 24,360 could carry the Nifty toward 24,550-24,700, with support at 24,000-23,800. The opening will show how much of the GIFT signal holds, and Nvidia's numbers will test it next.
At about 7:50 on Wednesday morning, GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,556, up 222 points, or 0.9 percent. That is a signal that India's benchmark indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, are likely to open sharply higher when trading begins.
The backdrop is a softer one for global markets. Crude oil fell again in early Asian trade, by about 2 percent, extending steep losses from the previous session. The trigger was Iran saying it had resumed talks with Oman over managing the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures dropped 2 percent to $86.80 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate slipped 1.8 percent to $80.87. Both benchmarks had already lost more than 3 percent on Tuesday. For Indian equities, the oil decline is among the most favourable cues of the morning.
Wall Street gave a second lift. US stocks ended Tuesday higher as technology shares recovered ahead of Nvidia's results, while lower crude and Treasury yields gave investors some relief after the recent bond-market selloff. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.66 percent to 26,151.30, the S&P 500 rose 0.32 percent to 7,677.24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.30 percent to 53,577.40. The easing in yields matters because the recent surge in borrowing costs had pressured valuations and raised concerns about capital flows into emerging markets.
Asia was mostly positive. MSCI's Asia-Pacific equities gauge gained 0.3 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1 percent and the Shanghai Composite advanced 0.4 percent. Japan's Topix and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 were marginally higher, though Nikkei 225 futures slipped 0.4 percent. Technology stocks and easing bond yields supported the region.
India enters the session with some momentum of its own. On Tuesday, monthly derivatives expiry day, buying in the final hour helped the benchmarks recover. The Sensex rose 286.98 points, or 0.37 percent, to 77,656.09. The Nifty gained 115.50 points, or 0.48 percent, to finish at 24,334.55.
Institutional money was supportive too. Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 1,593 crore on Tuesday, their second straight session of net buying. Domestic institutional investors added Rs 230 crore. The continued foreign buying is an encouraging sign for domestic equities.
Still, caution is built into the picture. Nvidia is due to report quarterly earnings later on Wednesday, and investors will look to its results and management commentary for signs of how strong AI-related demand is and whether heavy technology investment can be sustained. US futures reflected that unease in Asian trade, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.5 percent and S&P 500 futures down 0.3 percent.
On the charts, Bajaj Broking said a sustained move above 24,360 could take the Nifty toward 24,550-24,700, with short-term support at 24,000-23,800. The open will show how much of the GIFT Nifty signal holds, and Nvidia's numbers will test it after that.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
A sustained move above 24,360 could take the Nifty towards 24,550-24,700, with short-term support at 24,000-23,800.— Bajaj Broking
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