On a Friday morning before the Indian markets had even opened, the GIFT Nifty hovered near 24,411, lifting hopes that India's benchmark indices would extend a short run of gains. The lift came from a quieter signal across the Pacific, where softer American employment figures eased fears that the Federal Reserve would tighten again soon, and from oil that lingered near its lowest levels since the Middle East conflict began. Yet the mood is tempered by a quieter truth: foreign investors have been stepping back while domestic buyers carry the market, so this optimism rests on a fragile balance be
GIFT Nifty Jumps 150 Points as Softer US Jobs Data and Lower Crude Lift Indian Market Outlook
Foreign investors sold for a fourth session; domestic buyers kept going
Mark
GIFT Nifty is up 153 points. What is it actually telling us?
Mimi
It's an early indicator that the Sensex and Nifty should open higher, after two straight gains. It trades at 24,411 versus a Nifty close of 24,175.70.
Mark
What's driving the optimism?
Mimi
Softer US jobs data reduced fears of another Fed rate hike, and Brent is near $72, close to its lowest since before the Middle East conflict began.
Luke
Worth noting that GIFT Nifty is a signal, not the open itself. The actual opening could differ.
Mark
Fair. And the chip selloff?
Mimi
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.4 percent for a second session, and the Nasdaq lost 0.80 percent. Yet the Dow hit a record close.
Luke
The oil story rests on optimism about US-Iran negotiations. That's hope about talks, not a settled outcome.
Mark
Who's buying and selling in India?
Mimi
Foreign investors sold Rs 311 crore for a fourth session. Domestic investors bought Rs 1,784 crore, their eighth straight session of buying.
Luke
And the 24,200-24,250 resistance and 24,000 support levels are one analyst's technical view, Ponmudi R of Enrich Money, not a forecast anyone can confirm.
El Pulso
- GIFT Nifty climbed about 153 points early Friday, pointing to a firm open after two straight sessions of gains.
- Foreign institutional investors have sold for four consecutive sessions, unsettling a rally that domestic buyers are holding up.
- A semiconductor rout on Wall Street, with the chip index down 5.4 percent, has rattled technology stocks across Asia.
- Brent crude hovering near $72 a barrel and US-Iran talks have eased supply fears, giving the market a steadier footing.
- The Nifty must clear resistance between 24,200 and 24,250, and a break above could open the way toward 24,450, while 24,000 remains the line that matters.
On a Friday morning before the Indian markets had even opened, the GIFT Nifty hovered near 24,411, lifting hopes that India's benchmark indices would extend a short run of gains. The lift came from a quieter signal across the Pacific, where softer American employment figures eased fears that the Federal Reserve would tighten again soon, and from oil that lingered near its lowest levels since the Middle East conflict began. Yet the mood is tempered by a quieter truth: foreign investors have been stepping back while domestic buyers carry the market, so this optimism rests on a fragile balance between distant central banks, distant wars, and the patience of capital that has not yet decided where it belongs.
Early on Friday, GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,411, up about 0.63 percent, a sign that India's Sensex and Nifty were set for a firm opening. Both indices had already closed higher for a second straight session on July 2, with the Sensex adding roughly 580 points and the Nifty settling near 24,176. Buying had been broad, cutting across most sectors.
The overnight cue came from Wall Street, where softer-than-expected US jobs data reduced worries about another near-term interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Dow reached a record close, even as chip stocks dragged the Nasdaq lower after a sharp semiconductor sell-off. Across Asia, markets moved unevenly, with Korea's Kospi lagging on technology weakness.
Oil offered quiet support. Brent hovered near $72 a barrel, close to its lowest level since the Middle East conflict began, as hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations eased fears of supply disruption. Market analysts pointed to these easing pressures on energy and monetary policy as reasons for cautious optimism.
Still, the path is not without tension. Foreign investors have been net sellers for four sessions, even as domestic institutions have kept buying. Technical watchers see resistance between 24,200 and 24,250, with 24,000 as the key support that must hold. Whether foreign selling eases will likely determine how far the Nifty can push next.
At about 8 am on Friday, GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,411, up 153 points, or 0.63 percent, from its previous close. The move pointed to a firm opening for India's Sensex and Nifty, which had both finished Thursday's session with solid gains.
Those gains were the second in a row. On July 2, the Sensex rose 579.48 points, or 0.75 percent, to close at 77,502.12. The Nifty added 169.85 points, or 0.71 percent, to settle at 24,175.70. Buying was broad-based across most sectors.
The overnight cue came from Wall Street, where trading ended mixed after US jobs data came in softer than expected. That reduced worries about another near-term interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.14 percent to a record closing high, its fourth straight winning session. The S&P 500 was little changed, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.80 percent.
The Nasdaq's drop came from semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.4 percent for a second consecutive session. Nvidia slipped 1.4 percent, and SanDisk plunged more than 14 percent. Apple went the other way, surging 4.8 percent after reports that it plans to launch five new iPhone models. US markets are closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
Asian markets were mixed. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was marginally higher after two days of declines. South Korea's Kospi lagged its regional peers amid selling in technology stocks, and Japan's Nikkei fell around 1 percent. US equity futures were modestly higher, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures each up about 0.1 percent.
Oil continued to help. Prices edged higher but stayed near multi-month lows, as optimism over US-Iran negotiations eased fears of supply disruption. Brent crude rose about 0.2 percent to near $72.1 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate was around $68.8. Both benchmarks had touched their lowest levels since before the Middle East conflict began earlier this year.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said progress in the US-Iran talks has lessened concern over energy supply, while the softer jobs data has tempered expectations of monetary tightening by the Fed. He cautioned that markets are likely to stay sensitive, because foreign institutional investors remain cautious despite the improving macro backdrop.
On the technical side, he said the Nifty has kept a constructive structure after reclaiming 24,000. Immediate resistance sits at 24,200-24,250, and a sustained breakout could open the way to 24,400-24,450. On the downside, 24,000 is the first key support, followed by 23,800-23,900.
Institutional flows were split on July 2. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers for a fourth straight session, offloading shares worth Rs 311 crore. Domestic institutional investors bought Rs 1,784 crore, extending their buying streak to eight sessions. Whether foreign selling eases is the thing to watch as the Nifty tests those resistance levels.
Citas Notables
Progress in US-Iran talks and softer US jobs data have eased supply and rate worries, but markets will stay sensitive as foreign investors remain cautious.— Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money
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