On a holiday morning when India's exchanges lay quiet, the market's first breath came from GIFT Nifty, which rose over a percent and hinted that equities would try to recover from Monday's rough session. The fall had been born of broken talks between Washington and Tehran and a surge in oil prices, the old reminder that distant diplomacy can ripple through the price of a barrel and into the pockets of an oil-importing nation. Now crude had eased back below one hundred dollars and global markets had lifted, so a fragile hope returned with the reopening. Whether that hope holds will depend on wh
GIFT Nifty Jumps 1.1%, Tops 24,100 as Oil Eases and Asian Markets Rally Ahead of Indian Reopening
GIFT Nifty was still moving while Indian exchanges sat shut
Mark
Why does a move in GIFT Nifty matter when Indian markets are closed?
Mimi
It's the only Nifty-linked indicator still trading today. At 24,139, up 261 points, it hints that the Nifty 50 could open well higher on Wednesday.
Mark
What knocked the market down on Monday?
Mimi
The breakdown of US-Iran talks and a spike in crude. The Sensex lost over 700 points and the Nifty over 200.
Mark
And what changed since?
Mimi
Brent fell below $100 to about $96.66, Asian markets rallied, and US indexes closed more than 1 percent higher.
Luke
Worth being careful here. GIFT Nifty is a signal, not a result. The article says the Nifty could reclaim 24,000, not that it will.
Mark
What's behind the improved mood on Iran?
Mimi
Reports that talks may continue, plus comments from Trump hinting at a possible deal.
Luke
Those are reports and hints. Nothing in the piece confirms talks have actually resumed or that a deal exists.
Mark
What about investor flows?
Mimi
Foreign investors sold Rs 1,983 crore on Monday, while domestic institutions bought Rs 2,432 crore.
Luke
That's Monday's data, so it says nothing yet about how Wednesday will go.
Der Puls
- GIFT Nifty jumped 1.1% to 24,139 while Indian exchanges sat shut for the Ambedkar Jayanti holiday, leaving traders waiting in suspense.
- Monday's collapse in US-Iran talks and a spike in crude sent the Sensex down more than 700 points and the Nifty below its footing.
- Brent crude slid under $100 to around $96.66, easing fears of inflation and rising input costs for India.
- Asian indices surged, with the Nikkei and Kospi each gaining over 2%, and Wall Street closed higher, lifting the mood heading into Wednesday.
- Foreign investors sold Rs 1,983 crore while domestic institutions bought Rs 2,432 crore, and the rebound now rests on whether Washington and Tehran keep talking.
On a holiday morning when India's exchanges lay quiet, the market's first breath came from GIFT Nifty, which rose over a percent and hinted that equities would try to recover from Monday's rough session. The fall had been born of broken talks between Washington and Tehran and a surge in oil prices, the old reminder that distant diplomacy can ripple through the price of a barrel and into the pockets of an oil-importing nation. Now crude had eased back below one hundred dollars and global markets had lifted, so a fragile hope returned with the reopening. Whether that hope holds will depend on whether the negotiators find their way back to the table and whether the price of oil keeps its nerve.
On Tuesday morning, Indian exchanges were closed for the Ambedkar Jayanti holiday, yet GIFT Nifty kept trading and climbed 261 points to 24,139. It was the first signal of how Indian stocks might open on Wednesday, and it suggested a sharp recovery after Monday, when the Sensex lost more than 700 points and the Nifty slipped more than 200.
Monday's sell-off had followed the breakdown of US-Iran talks and a jump in crude prices. That combination weighed heavily on an economy that imports most of its oil, where every rise in crude threatens inflation and the cost of doing business.
By Tuesday the mood had shifted. Brent crude fell below $100 to about $96.66, Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi each gained more than 2 percent, and Wall Street ended higher on hopes for progress in the Middle East. Reports that Washington and Tehran might resume negotiations, along with remarks from President Trump hinting at a possible deal, lifted spirits further.
Flows told a mixed story. Foreign investors sold equities worth Rs 1,983 crore on Monday, while domestic institutions stepped in with purchases of Rs 2,432 crore. The rebound now depends on whether the negotiations revive and whether crude keeps easing when trading resumes.
On Tuesday morning, while Indian exchanges sat shut for a public holiday, GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,139. That was up 261 points, or 1.1 percent, in early trade, and it gave the first read on how Indian stocks might behave when they reopen.
Domestic markets are closed on April 14 for Dr B.R. Ambedkar Jayanti. Trading in both the equity and derivatives segments is suspended, and it resumes on Wednesday. GIFT Nifty is the one gauge still moving in the meantime, and it points to the Nifty 50 opening sharply higher and possibly climbing back above 24,000 after Monday's decline.
Monday was a rough session. The Sensex fell by more than 700 points and the Nifty lost more than 200. The pressure came from the breakdown of talks between the United States and Iran, and from a jump in crude oil prices that followed.
Since then, the global backdrop has shifted. Brent crude slipped below the $100 mark, falling about 2.7 percent to roughly $96.66 a barrel. That matters for an oil-importing economy like India, where cheaper crude eases worries about inflation and input costs.
Asian equities rallied as well. Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi each gained more than 2 percent, and a broader Asia-Pacific index rose around 1 percent. Overnight in the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both advanced more than 1 percent, helped by optimism about progress in the Middle East and the start of the earnings season.
Sentiment improved after reports that Washington and Tehran might keep negotiating despite the recent collapse in talks. Remarks from US President Donald Trump hinting at a possible deal also eased concerns about a prolonged disruption to supply.
Institutional money was split in Monday's session. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 1,983 crore. Domestic institutional investors absorbed some of that, buying a net Rs 2,432 crore.
Indian markets are therefore set to attempt a recovery from the recent losses, with lower oil and a firmer global mood behind them. The durability of the rebound depends on the US-Iran negotiations and on where crude goes next, and both remain the key triggers to watch when trading resumes Wednesday.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Markets are likely to attempt a recovery, though geopolitical developments and crude price movements will remain key triggers.— News18 market report (paraphrase)
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