German voters decide as far-right AfD seeks historic state power

On Sunday, voters in Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German state, will decide whether to hand power to the Alternative for Germany—a far-right party that has not held state office since World War II. The stakes are unusually clear: recent polling shows the AfD commanding 40 percent support, nearly double the centre-right Christian Democrats' 23 percent. If smaller parties fail to reach the 5 percent threshold required for parliamentary representation, the AfD could secure an absolute majority and govern alone, sidestepping the informal "firewall" that mainstream parties have erected against cooperation with the far right.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's lead candidate and a former member of the CDU, has already framed this election as a national turning point. Der Spiegel magazine called him "Germany's most dangerous man." In an interview with the tabloid Bild, Siegmund predicted an absolute majority would propel the party toward federal power in 2029. "It was the others who erected the firewalls," he said. "If no one wants to work with us, then we'll just have to do it alone." The statement reflects the AfD's calculation that a decisive win in Saxony-Anhalt would break the consensus against its participation in government—a consensus that has held at the state level but already fractured in some local administrations.

The election arrives at a moment of political turbulence in Berlin. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who leads the CDU nationally, is deeply unpopular. A week before the Saxony-Anhalt vote, Merz appeared at a campaign rally in Lower Saxony and called for other politicians to engage with the AfD more directly. "We must address the issues at hand. We must also address our choice of words," he said—a remark that seemed to acknowledge the AfD's ability to set the terms of debate. His comment came days after Martin Reichardt, the AfD's state leader in Saxony-Anhalt, told the party's youth organization that Germany had become "a lazy, anti-social bum reeking of dope." Merz's suggestion that mainstream politicians should recalibrate their messaging, rather than reject such rhetoric outright, signaled a possible softening of the firewall.

The most likely alternative to an AfD government is a CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze. If the AfD falls short of an absolute majority, weeks of coalition negotiations would follow, with the final composition of government depending on which parties clear the 5 percent bar. But the momentum belongs to the far right. The AfD has led comfortably in polls for months, and Siegmund's confidence reflects a party that sees this election not as an isolated contest but as a rehearsal for national power in 2029.

On the eve of the vote, democracy advocates mobilized. Between 15,000 and 20,000 people gathered for a festival in support of democratic values, according to rally organizers. The demonstration underscored the polarization: one segment of the electorate energized by the AfD's anti-establishment message, another alarmed by the prospect of far-right governance. Initial results will arrive at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday, and they will carry weight far beyond Saxony-Anhalt. A decisive AfD victory would shatter the firewall and reshape German politics heading into the 2029 federal elections.