In the long arc of central banking, few moments reveal the tension between political loyalty and institutional mandate as starkly as this one. Inflation data released this week — showing producer prices up 5.4% annually and consumer prices at 3.3% — has pushed futures markets to price an 88% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, up from a coin flip just a month ago. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed by a president who openly opposes rate increases, now stands at a crossroads that is as much about the independence of institutions as it is about the price of