Former Trump aide Fiona Hill: Putin 'has got Trump's number' and has no plan to end the Ukraine war

Putin "has got Trump's number"
Fiona Hill says Putin flatters and teases Trump, relying on translators to soften the jibes.
Mark

Why does a story about a joke in Osaka matter for the war today?

Mimi

Because Hill uses it as evidence of how Putin handles Trump. He teased him openly, the interpreters softened it, and Trump took it literally.

Mark

What did Putin actually say?

Mimi

That if Trump was so beloved in Israel, maybe they should name the country after him. Trump answered that it would be a bit too much.

Luke

That's Hill's account, though. She was in the room, but it's a single recollection from 2019, and we only have her word on how Bolton's moustache reacted.

Mark

And her view on the war itself?

Mimi

She says Putin's economy, society and politics all depend on the war continuing, so a deal is hard to imagine.

Luke

That's a judgment, not a fact. Putin has said Ukraine must cede territory, which is on record, but whether he has no plan to end the war is her inference.

Mark

She rejects the blackmail theory too.

Mimi

Yes. She says Trump is an open book and puts it down to vanity and a "man crush" on strongmen.

Luke

Again, that's her reading of his motives. Nobody has shown what drives his policy. What's concrete is Witkoff's planned trip to Moscow and Putin's pushback on the plan.

  • A former White House insider says Vladimir Putin is teasing Donald Trump to his face, and the jabs are slipping past him.
  • Trump proclaims "tremendous progress" toward peace even as the Kremlin rejects core terms of the amended plan.
  • Envoy Steve Witkoff heads to Moscow next week, carrying a revised framework drafted with European leaders and Kyiv.
  • Putin insists Ukraine must surrender large areas of territory, placing the peace effort on a collision course with Ukrainian sovereignty.
  • The original 28-point plan drew fierce criticism as pro-Russian, and the question now is whether any version of the deal can survive Moscow's demands.

Some memories carry more meaning than their size suggests. Years ago, in a crowded room in Osaka, a joke about renaming a country passed between two powerful men, and only some of those present grasped what was really being played. Now, as diplomats shuttle toward Moscow in search of an end to a war that has consumed Ukraine for years, a former insider who watched those moments unfold argues that the flattery and teasing at the heart of this diplomacy may be hiding a far harder truth: that the man across the table may have no wish to lay his weapons down.

At the G20 summit in Osaka in 2019, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin traded a light exchange about who had done more for Israel. Trump pointed to places in Israel named after him, and Putin replied that perhaps the country should simply be renamed for him. Fiona Hill, then a national security adviser and a fluent Russian speaker, was in the room. She recalls nearly laughing out loud at the sight of John Bolton's moustache twitching. Trump's own team understood they were being mocked. Trump did not. He took the remark at face value and said renaming the country would be a bit much.

Hill, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution, has described the episode in an interview with The Independent's Sam Kiley. She believes Putin has learned to tease Trump openly, relying on the language barrier and on interpreters who softened the edge of his remarks. Her conclusion is that Putin has "got Trump's number." She does not believe the explanation lies in blackmail. Instead, she points to vanity: Trump, in her account, admires strongmen who appear powerful and surrounded by gold, and the approval of such figures is the currency he values most.

All of this unfolds as Trump declares that tremendous progress has been made toward peace. Witkoff is expected in Moscow soon to discuss an amended plan. Hill is not hopeful. The war, she argues, is woven into Putin's economy, politics and sense of self, making it extraordinarily hard for him to walk away. The coming days will show whether Putin accepts any version of the proposal or whether the flattery continues in place of a settlement.

At the G20 summit in Osaka in 2019, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin got into an exchange about who had done more for Israel. Fiona Hill, then a White House national security adviser and a fluent Russian speaker, was in the room. Trump pointed out that things in Israel had been named after him, citing his recognition of Jerusalem as the capital and the new embassy. Putin replied, in Hill's telling, that perhaps they should just name the country after him.

Hill says she nearly died laughing when she saw John Bolton, then the national security adviser, with his moustache twitching. Trump's team understood that the president was being trolled. Trump, she says, did not. He ignored Putin's tone and the way he shifted in his seat, took the suggestion at face value, and answered that renaming the country would be a bit too much.

Hill described the scene in an hour-long interview with Sam Kiley for The Independent's podcast World of Trouble. She says Putin made similar jokes at Trump's expense on other occasions, and that interpreters glossed over the language and intent. Her conclusion is that Putin has "got Trump's number" and feels able to tease him to his face, relying on the language barrier to cover it.

Hill, a British-American who is now a fellow at the Brookings Institution and chancellor of Durham University, served as a national security adviser in Trump's first administration. She testified in the 2019 congressional impeachment proceedings against him. She has also said on the record that Russia interfered in the 2016 election, and in 2019 argued that Moscow's aim was to put whoever won under a cloud.

The interview comes as Trump claims "tremendous progress has been made" toward peace after days of frantic diplomacy. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is due in Moscow early next week to discuss an amended plan drawn up with European leaders and Ukraine. The original 28-point plan was widely criticised as pro-Russian. Putin has already pushed back, saying Ukraine must give up large areas of territory.

Hill is pessimistic about Putin's willingness to stop. "It is extremely difficult to see how Putin gives this up," she says. "His whole economy, his whole society, his whole politics, his whole preservation of self revolves around having this war go on."

She does not accept the theory that Trump's stance on Russia reflects blackmail. Trump, she says, is "an open book," and "we've all got something on Trump." Her explanation is more personal. She calls it a "man crush": Trump sees Putin as the "badass" he would like to be, a leader in charge of everything and surrounded by gold. Being in the company of such figures, she says, raises Trump in the eyes of others.

That, in her view, is Putin's lever. He recognises a man with a fragile ego who wants recognition from everyone who matters, including Xi Jinping, Putin and assorted royal families. She calls that approval "the coin of the realm" for Trump.

The article notes that Trump has attacked Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky since the start of his presidency and accused him of starting the war. Russia in fact invaded Ukraine in 2014 and again on a full scale in 2022. What to watch now is Witkoff's Moscow trip and whether Putin accepts any version of the amended plan.

It is extremely difficult to see how Putin gives this up. His whole economy, his whole society, his whole politics, his whole preservation of self revolves around having this war go on.
— Fiona Hill, on The Independent's World of Trouble podcast
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