In the weeks after a long and bruising war with Iran, a two-week ceasefire has paused the bombing, but not the unease in Washington. Two of the President's closest allies have already been dismissed, and a former diplomat now speculates that Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth may be the next to fall, a view resting more on instinct about how power protects itself than on confirmed plans. Behind the speculation lies a older human pattern: when a leader avoids blame, someone beneath him is often asked to carry it.
Former Diplomat Names Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth as Likely Next Trump Firings Over Iran War
Trump takes the blame for nothing himself
Mark
Two cabinet-level firings in a month, plus a resignation. Why is this being read as a pattern?
Mimi
Because Noem and Bondi were both part of the loyal inner circle. Noem went March 5, Bondi April 1, and Joe Kent resigned over what he called lies about the war. Losing loyalists is what makes people ask who is next.
Mark
And the answer offered is Gabbard and Hegseth.
Mimi
By Michael Montgomery, a former diplomat who now lectures at the University of Michigan-Dearborn. He says Trump deflects blame, so whoever handles intelligence or military execution is exposed if the war sours.
Luke
Worth being clear that's a prediction from one commentator. He says Trump is more prone to firing women than men, and that's an assertion, not something the piece backs with figures.
Mark
Is there anything firmer on Gabbard?
Mimi
The Guardian reported Trump privately asked cabinet members whether he should replace her, after she wouldn't condemn Kent's resignation and comments.
Luke
That's a report of private conversations, relayed here secondhand. It's more than speculation, but it isn't a decision. And there's nothing in the piece on Hegseth beyond Montgomery's view.
Mark
The article also brings in Trump's health. How solid is that?
Luke
Not solid. Dr Gartner and Mary Trump are offering opinions from outside; neither is described as having examined him. The White House says he's in good health. I'd treat that section as commentary.
Mimi
And it does sit apart from the firings question. What ties it together is the ceasefire, which lasts two weeks.
Der Puls
- Two loyal cabinet figures, Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi, have been fired, and counterterrorism chief Joe Kent resigned, accusing the President of lying about the war.
- A fragile two-week ceasefire holds for now, after a conflict that shut the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices surging.
- Reports that Trump privately asked cabinet members whether to replace Tulsi Gabbard have sharpened fears that the next dismissal is already being weighed.
- Questions about the President's health, from bruised hands to erratic rhetoric, add a second layer of unease that the White House firmly denies.
- The story will turn on whether the ceasefire becomes peace or collapses, because a failed campaign could make blame and dismissals fall fast.
In the weeks after a long and bruising war with Iran, a two-week ceasefire has paused the bombing, but not the unease in Washington. Two of the President's closest allies have already been dismissed, and a former diplomat now speculates that Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth may be the next to fall, a view resting more on instinct about how power protects itself than on confirmed plans. Behind the speculation lies a older human pattern: when a leader avoids blame, someone beneath him is often asked to carry it.
Earlier this week, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, roughly forty days after America and Israel began bombing Iran. The pause came after a conflict that closed the Strait of Hormuz and pushed oil prices sharply higher, and just after President Trump threatened on Truth Social to end a "whole civilisation." With the guns quiet for now, attention in Washington has turned to the people closest to him.
Two members of his inner circle have already gone. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was fired on March 5, and Attorney General Pam Bondi was sacked on April 1. Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Centre, resigned, saying Trump had lied about the war. Resentment over the conflict continues to grow even as the fighting pauses.
Michael Montgomery, a former US diplomat, named Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth as the likely next to leave. He argued that if the war goes badly, Gabbard would go first, claiming Trump is more prone to firing women than men, and that Hegseth would follow, especially if military officers refuse unlawful orders. These are his own predictions, though The Guardian has reported that Trump privately asked cabinet members whether to replace Gabbard after she declined to condemn Kent's resignation.
The war has also revived questions about Trump's health. Psychologist John Gartner and Mary Trump, the president's niece, both offered public opinions suggesting cognitive decline, though neither has examined him. Bruising on his hands and a rash on his neck have prompted concern, and the White House insists he is in good health.
What comes next depends largely on the ceasefire. It lasts only two weeks, and Montgomery's scenario hinges on the war going wrong. Whether it holds, and who is blamed if it does not, is what to watch.
Earlier this week, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, close to 40 days after America and Israel began bombing Iran. The pause came after a conflict that closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices sharply higher, and just after President Trump posted a threat on Truth Social to end a "whole civilisation." Now, as the ceasefire holds for the moment, attention in Washington has turned to the people around him.
Two members of Trump's loyal inner circle have already gone. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was fired on March 5. Attorney General Pam Bondi was sacked on April 1. Separately, Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Centre, resigned over what he described as lies from Trump about the war. The Mirror reports that resentment over the conflict continues to grow in the US even with the guns quiet.
The Mirror asked Michael J Montgomery, a former US diplomat and lecturer at the University of Michigan-Dearborn, who might be next. He named two people: Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, and Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense. His reasoning on Gabbard was blunt. If the war goes badly, as he suspects it will, she would be the next out the door, he said, because Trump is "much more prone to firing women than men."
Hegseth, in Montgomery's telling, would follow soon after, particularly if career military officers decline to carry out every Trump order regardless of how illegal or deranged it might be. Montgomery said the ceasefire and Trump's decision not to follow through on his threat against a civilisation did not change his view. In his words, Trump takes the blame for nothing himself, and those two are the logical people to blame if poor intelligence or poor execution undermines the Iran campaign.
There is some reporting behind the concern about Gabbard. The Guardian has reported that Trump privately asked members of his cabinet whether he should replace her, after she declined to condemn Kent's resignation and the comments he made afterward. That is the firmest piece of evidence in the story. Montgomery's wider predictions are his own assessment, not confirmed plans.
The war has also revived questions about Trump's health. His rhetoric has swung during the conflict, from calling on allies for help to saying none was needed. After an expletive-laden Truth Social post on April 5, demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz or live in hell, psychologist Dr John Gartner, a former Johns Hopkins professor, told The Daily Beast podcast that Trump was "not the same man he was four weeks ago." Gartner went on to speculate about frontotemporal dementia, a condition he said strips people of judgment and inhibition and makes them aggressive.
Mary Trump, the president's niece, made a similar suggestion on the same outlet. She said she sometimes sees in her uncle the look of confusion she remembers in his father, Fred Trump Sr, who had Alzheimer's disease, and that he does not always seem oriented to time and place. Both are outside observers offering opinion, not diagnosis; neither has examined him. The report also mentions bruising on his hands and a rash on his neck, which have prompted concern. The White House has repeatedly said Trump is in good health.
What happens next depends heavily on the ceasefire. It runs only two weeks, and Montgomery's scenario for further dismissals hinges on the war going wrong. Whether it holds, and who is held responsible if it does not, is the thing to watch.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
If this goes bad as I suspect it will, Tulsi Gabbard will be next out the door.— Michael J Montgomery, former US diplomat
Trump is not the same man he was four weeks ago.— Dr John Gartner, on The Daily Beast podcast
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