After five years of explosive growth, the foldable smartphone market has encountered its first contraction — a 38 percent drop in panel procurement signaling that novelty alone cannot sustain a category. The industry now finds itself in an unusual posture of collective waiting, its hopes pinned on a single company whose entry into any market tends to rewrite the rules. Apple's anticipated foldable iPhone, expected in late 2026, has become less a product launch and more a referendum on whether this form factor belongs in the mainstream human story of how we communicate and connect.
Foldable smartphone market faces first decline; Apple's 2026 iPhone seen as savior
The entire recovery of a smartphone category now rests on a single company's product launch.
Mark
So foldables have been growing for years, and now they're suddenly declining. What changed?
Mimi
The market grew fast because it was new and exciting, but there's only so many people willing to pay a premium for a phone that folds. Demand hit a ceiling around 22 million units a year, and now it's shrinking.
Luke
Do we know why demand stalled? Is it price, durability, lack of compelling use cases, or something else?
Mimi
The report doesn't break that down. It just shows the procurement numbers are falling.
Mark
And Apple is supposed to fix this?
Mimi
That's the theory. Apple enters the market in late 2026, and DSCC expects it to trigger 30 percent growth that year and beyond.
Luke
But that assumes Apple's foldable will be significantly better than what Samsung and Motorola are already making. We don't know that yet.
Mimi
True. And if Apple's version doesn't solve whatever problem made consumers lose interest in foldables, then the category could stay depressed.
Mark
So the entire recovery depends on Apple's execution?
Mimi
Essentially, yes. No other company seems positioned to reverse the decline on their own.
Luke
That's a fragile foundation for a category. What if Apple delays the launch, or what if it launches and people still don't want it?
Mimi
Then we're looking at years of decline with no clear bottom.
The Pulse
- The foldable phone market posted its first-ever year-over-year decline in Q3 2024, with panel procurement falling 38%, shattering the illusion of unstoppable momentum.
- Demand has plateaued at roughly 22 million units annually, and DSCC forecasts four quarters of year-over-year decline across the next five — a slow bleed with no internal cure in sight.
- Samsung, Motorola, and other early movers face a disorienting reality: their own innovation and marketing have not been enough to push foldables beyond a premium niche.
- The entire industry's recovery strategy has collapsed into a single bet — that Apple's foldable iPhone, if it arrives in 2026, will trigger 30%+ growth and restore multi-year momentum.
- The uncomfortable truth underneath the optimism is that competitors' futures now depend on Apple's execution, leaving them as passengers in a vehicle they do not drive.
After five years of explosive growth, the foldable smartphone market has encountered its first contraction — a 38 percent drop in panel procurement signaling that novelty alone cannot sustain a category. The industry now finds itself in an unusual posture of collective waiting, its hopes pinned on a single company whose entry into any market tends to rewrite the rules. Apple's anticipated foldable iPhone, expected in late 2026, has become less a product launch and more a referendum on whether this form factor belongs in the mainstream human story of how we communicate and connect.
The foldable smartphone market has hit a wall. Panel procurement fell 38 percent year-over-year in Q3 2024 — the first decline since the category emerged — ending a five-year run that had averaged 40 percent annual growth. Analysts at DSCC now expect 2025 to be worse, forecasting a 4 percent contraction with year-over-year drops in four of the next five quarters. Demand has stalled at around 22 million panels annually, and for companies like Samsung and Motorola that bet heavily on foldables as the next frontier of smartphone design, this is not a temporary stumble. The market is telling them the category has peaked.
The potential escape hatch carries an Apple logo. The company is expected to enter the foldable market in the second half of 2026, and if that launch arrives as anticipated, DSCC forecasts it will reverse the entire trajectory — turning 2026 into a record year with growth exceeding 30 percent, followed by 20-plus percent gains in both 2027 and 2028. The logic is familiar: Apple's entry into any category tends to reshape it, and a foldable iPhone with meaningful improvements in durability or functionality could generate the mainstream demand that Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip have struggled to produce alone.
But the scenario rests on a troubling assumption. The recovery of an entire product category now depends on a single company's execution. If Apple delays or disappoints, there is no clear alternative path forward — competitors would face prolonged decline through no failure of their own. The deeper question lingers beyond market forecasts: whether Apple's entry can genuinely expand the category or will simply redistribute a niche that has already reached its ceiling. A foldable phone remains a luxury item with real tradeoffs, and even Apple's considerable power to shift consumer perception may not be enough if the market has already decided this form factor solves a problem most people do not have.
The foldable smartphone market has hit a wall. For the first time since the category emerged, panel procurement fell year-over-year in the third quarter of 2024—a 38 percent drop that marks the end of a five-year run of explosive growth. Display analysts at DSCC, who track the supply chain for these devices, now expect the entire year of 2025 to be worse. After averaging 40 percent annual growth from 2019 through 2023, the market is contracting.
The numbers tell a story of saturation arriving faster than anyone predicted. Demand has stalled at around 22 million panels annually. DSCC's latest forecast is stark: a 5 percent rise in 2024, followed by a 4 percent decline in 2025, with year-over-year drops expected in four of the next five quarters. For companies like Samsung and Motorola, which have bet heavily on foldables as the next frontier of smartphone design, this is not a temporary stumble. It is the market telling them the category has peaked.
But there is a potential escape hatch, and it has an Apple logo on it. The company is expected to enter the foldable market in the second half of 2026 with its own iPhone variant. If that device arrives as anticipated, DSCC forecasts it will reverse the entire trajectory. The year 2026 would become a record year for foldables, with growth exceeding 30 percent. The momentum would continue into 2027 and 2028, each year posting more than 20 percent gains.
The logic is straightforward: Apple's dominance in the flagship smartphone market means its entry into any category tends to reshape it. A foldable iPhone with meaningful improvements in durability, functionality, or form factor could convince millions of consumers that the category is worth the premium price. It could create the kind of mainstream demand that Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip have struggled to generate on their own.
Yet this scenario contains a troubling assumption. The entire recovery of a smartphone category now rests on a single company's product launch. If the foldable iPhone arrives and succeeds, competitors benefit. If it arrives and disappoints, or if Apple delays it further, the category faces years of decline with no clear recovery path. For the other manufacturers in this space, that is an uncomfortable position—their future growth depends on Apple's execution, not their own innovation or market strategy.
The deeper question is whether Apple's entry can actually save the category, or whether it will simply cannibalize existing foldable sales while leaving the fundamental problem unsolved. A foldable phone remains a luxury item with real tradeoffs: higher cost, durability concerns, and a form factor that solves a problem many consumers do not feel they have. Apple's marketing power and design reputation could shift that perception. But if the market has already decided foldables are a niche product, no single company—not even Apple—may be able to change that verdict.
Notable Quotes
Apple is expected to enter the foldable market in 2H'26 and given their dominant position in flagship smartphones could generate significant growth for the foldable smartphone market.— DSCC analysts
2026 is expected to be a record year for foldables with over 30% growth and with over 20% growth projected for 2027 and 2028 as well.— DSCC forecast
Want the full story?
Read the original at 9to5Mac ↗
Technology