Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly flees Brazil for US after election loss to Lula

On Tuesday morning, a deadline passed in Brasília. Flávio Bolsonaro, the far-right senator who lost Sunday's presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, had until 11am to hand his passport to the federal police. He did not appear. He had not been seen since Monday, and by the afternoon Brazilian and Argentinian outlets were reporting that he had left the country.

The account that spread fastest came from the news site Metrópoles, which cited people close to the family. It said he was on a plane bound for the United States, though it did not say where the flight had departed from. Allies told the site he would land in Florida on Tuesday afternoon and intended to request political asylum, and that the administration of Donald Trump had been informed. Folha de S Paulo also had allies confirming the trip, and said the escape had been organized and enabled by a lawyer close to the family. CNN Brasil reported that he left in the early hours of Tuesday with his wife and two daughters. A US state department spokesperson said Bolsonaro and his family would be granted visas to allow them entry. None of this had been confirmed by Bolsonaro himself.

The route is disputed. Infobae reported that he went to Argentina on Monday night and was to board a private jet in Puerto Iguazú, but that the plane never took off. Todo Noticias reported that he crossed the border on foot and dropped the plane plan once word of his movements leaked. Because there is no record of him passing a regular Brazilian immigration checkpoint, the federal police are asking Argentinian authorities whether he entered the country. He has held Italian citizenship since 2023 and reportedly has an Italian passport.

The passport order stems from a criminal case in which federal police are investigating him over possible involvement in a money-laundering scheme worth about £680m ($905m) that involved betting companies. A supreme court justice cancelled his Brazilian passport minutes after the election result. O Globo reported that at a Monday meeting with friends and lawyers he appeared "possessed" and made clear he feared arrest. That same day he posted a video saying of the cancellation, "I never thought about leaving the country." His brother Eduardo, the former congressman living in self-imposed exile in the US, had said in an interview last Friday that Flávio should leave Brazil if he lost.

Lula, speaking at an event in Brasília marking his 81st birthday, called the apparent departure shameful. He said Brazil is the Bolsonaros' second homeland and the first is "licking the boots of the US," and argued that someone who owes nothing fears nothing. Lawmakers from his Workers' party have asked the supreme court to order Bolsonaro's arrest and to place him on Interpol's Red Notice list.

His campaign chief, senator Rogério Marinho, said he was surprised, since the two had talked the day before about Flávio using his 60 million votes to lead the opposition. Asked whether that was possible from abroad, Marinho pointed to María Corina Machado of Venezuela. Bolsonaro still has not conceded. He took 48.21% of the vote, which many analysts read as both an anti-Lula vote and a vote for whomever Jair Bolsonaro chose.

The family's position is now precarious. Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest for attempting a coup. Eduardo faces an outstanding arrest warrant after a four-year sentence for trying to interfere in his father's trial by lobbying Trump to sanction the justices. Flávio, a 24-year politician with few laws to his name, had reportedly not wanted to run, fearing the campaign would make his life "hell"; he was chosen because Eduardo, his father's plan A, was in the US. His only earlier bid for executive office, for Rio mayor in 2016, ended in fourth place after he fainted in a televised debate.

Political scientists see an opening. Magna Inácio of the Federal University of Minas Gerais said the right's leadership is now up for grabs. Camila Rocha expects power to drift away from the sons, noting that pre-election polls showed Bolsonaro supporters preferring Michelle Bolsonaro, newly elected senator, or São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Inácio expects friction between Michelle and stepsons Carlos, senator-elect, and Jair Renan, congressman-elect. What to watch next: whether Flávio lands in Florida, and whether the supreme court acts on the arrest request.