Flávio Bolsonaro refuses to concede as Lula wins fourth term in Brazil's runoff

On Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, tens of thousands of people filled the street on Sunday night as fireworks went off over the city. Some revellers hoisted a banner reading "Dictatorship never again" onto the roof of a metro station. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had just been elected to a fourth non-consecutive term as president of Brazil, beating the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff. The party was expected to last until dawn.

The electoral court's president, Kassio Nunes Marques, confirmed the result, saying Lula won with more than 64 million votes and will become the 40th president of the republic when his term begins on 5 January 2027. Marques said he phoned both candidates. He noted that Lula has stood in eight elections and won four. He congratulated Bolsonaro on a campaign that drew a significant number of votes in his first run for the presidency.

Bolsonaro did not accept the result. In a five-minute speech, apparently timed to start only after Lula's televised victory address had ended, he took no questions and said it was "impossible to concede the election result." His legal team, he said, would seek to have the election annulled. He told supporters: "I will not give up on my Brazil, and I hope you won't give up either." His father, the former president Jair Bolsonaro, also refused to acknowledge defeat by Lula four years ago, then attempted a coup and was convicted. He is now serving a 27-year sentence.

The younger Bolsonaro's grievance centres on a ruling by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, who extended voting from 5pm to 7pm. Bolsonaro called it "not normal, it was unacceptable" and described it as changing the rules while the game was being played. He blamed "Lula's friends on the supreme court," noting that Zanin once served as Lula's lawyer and was appointed to the court by him. Zanin issued the order minutes after 5pm, after fellow justice Marques spent hours without ruling on a Lula campaign request. Marques was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro, and during the campaign he was criticised for rulings seen as favouring the senator.

The speech left out one detail: Bolsonaro's own campaign had also asked for an extension. Late in the afternoon it sought two more hours in cities in São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina, citing heavy rain that he said kept voters away. Lula's request concerned cities in at least nine states where voters had not received the free public transport guaranteed by law. In one city, the local electoral court ordered 100% of the bus fleet restored and ordered the arrest of the municipal transport secretary, Pablo Souza, on suspicion of an electoral offence and disobeying court orders. The warrant could not be served because Souza was in Paris on what the city government called an "official mission" and was not expected back until Monday.

On the streets, reactions split. In Rio de Janeiro, car horns sounded as the result was confirmed. Rodrigo Valentim, a 51-year-old businessman who backed Bolsonaro, said another Lula government would hurt the economy: "The country is collapsing." Aurelio Junior, a 45-year-old dentist in Brasília, called the extension a "disgrace." Jacqueline Maria Lima de Franca, a 34-year-old Lula-backing business owner in Rio, called it "more than fair," because everyone should have the right to vote. At the Paulista celebration, 44-year-old Leonardo Machado said, "Lula is our father."

Speaking to a packed hall in São Paulo, Lula, who is nearly 81, promised to deliver "the best term a president has ever done" and called the vote "a defeat for denialism." Vice-president Geraldo Alckmin told the crowd they had saved Brazilian democracy for the second time. Health minister Alexandre Padilha called it a signal to Latin America and the world. Messages came from Canada's Mark Carney, Peru's Keiko Fujimori, Ecuador's Daniel Noboa, Chile's José Antonio Kast and US senator Bernie Sanders. The result is a setback for Donald Trump, the Bolsonaro family's most important foreign ally, who had hoped for another pro-Trump government in Latin America. Jair Bolsonaro had hoped his son's win would free him and give him a role in government.

Markets are next. Since Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in the opening round three weeks ago, stocks rose almost 7% and the real gained nearly 5% against the dollar by Friday's close. Luis Felipe Vital of Warren Investimentos expects aggressive repricing on Monday, with interest-rate futures likely to hit their upper limit soon after the open. UBS's Alejo Czerwonko expects sentiment to stay weak until a clear fiscal plan emerges. Lula must slow debt growth while protecting social programs and investment, and Bolsonaro's promised annulment challenge is still to come.