Five states hold pivotal primaries with focus on Michigan Senate battle

Five states are voting on Tuesday in a set of primaries that will reshape the political landscape heading into the general election. The races span from Senate contests that could determine chamber control to House battles in districts that flipped between parties in recent cycles, and they reveal the fault lines running through both major parties as candidates compete for nominations.

In Michigan, Democrats are locked in an expensive and bitter fight over who should inherit retiring Senator Gary Peters' seat. The race pits Haley Stevens, a 43-year-old House member from the Detroit suburbs who was recruited by Senate Democratic leadership, against Abdul El-Sayed, a 41-year-old physician and former state health official backed by progressive firebrands like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The seat is one of a handful Democrats must hold if they want any realistic path to Senate control. Governor Gretchen Whitmer has thrown her weight behind Stevens, while the progressive wing has coalesced around El-Sayed. The two candidates have spent months clashing over who better represents Michigan voters. El-Sayed has run on Medicare for All and has been a vocal critic of Israel's government and the war in Gaza—an issue that carries particular weight in Michigan, home to the nation's largest concentration of Arab Americans. Stevens has countered that she is focused on the unglamorous work of governing, accusing El-Sayed of treating the Senate race as a stepping stone to higher office. She has emphasized affordability, healthcare, and housing as her priorities. Stevens has also received support from pro-Israel groups, which El-Sayed highlighted during their debate. A third major candidate, state Senator Mallory McMorrow, dropped out earlier this month.

Michigan's Republican Senate primary is far less competitive. Former GOP Representative Mike Rogers, who lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than a point in 2024, is running unopposed. On the Democratic side for governor, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has already won her primary against Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. The Republican gubernatorial race has narrowed considerably after two major candidates dropped out citing Donald Trump's endorsement of Representative John James. James now faces businessman Perry Johnson, though polls show James with a commanding lead.

Virginia's primary contests are shaped by a redistricting fight that Democrats lost. The state's Supreme Court struck down a voter-approved map that would have given Democrats up to four additional districts, forcing the state to use a 2021 nonpartisan commission map instead. Despite this setback, Democrats are still targeting several House seats. Former Representative Elaine Luria won the Democratic primary in the 2nd Congressional District and will face incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans in the Virginia Beach area—a rematch of their 2024 race, which Kiggans won. In the 1st District, prosecutor Shannon Taylor defeated six primary challengers and will take on Republican Rob Wittmann. Taylor made history in 2011 as the first Democrat in 40 years to win the Henrico Commonwealth's Attorney's Office. In the 7th District, Army Colonel Eugene Vindman, a Trump impeachment whistleblower who won by just 2 points in 2024, will face Douglas Ollivant, a former National Security Council official, in what is shaping up as one of the cycle's most competitive House races.

Missouri's contests are roiled by redistricting disputes that remain unresolved. In St. Louis, Representative Wesley Bell is facing a rematch with former Representative Cori Bush, a progressive activist and member of "The Squad" whom Bell defeated in 2024. The district is overwhelmingly Democratic—nearly 80 percent voted for Kamala Harris in 2024—so the primary winner will almost certainly win in November. Elsewhere in the state, longtime Representative Emanuel Cleaver is running unopposed in the Democratic primary after the Republican-controlled legislature redrawn his Kansas City district to favor the GOP. Six Republicans are competing for the chance to face Cleaver, though a Kansas City Star investigation found that only one actually lives in the newly drawn district. The legal status of Missouri's new congressional map remains uncertain. Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins has until Tuesday to verify more than 305,000 signatures on a referendum calling for a statewide vote on the boundaries. If he certifies the petition, the new map would be paused, and the legal fight would continue.

In Washington, the 3rd Congressional District is among the most closely watched House races in the country. Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who won the seat in 2022 in a district that voted for Trump, is running against eight challengers under Washington's nonpartisan primary system, where the top two vote-getters advance to November regardless of party. Among her opponents is Trump-backed Republican state Senator John Braun, who has broken with the president on tariffs and the 2020 election. The race will help determine House control next year. In the Seattle area, longtime Representative Adam Smith faces a challenge from Kshama Sawant, a former city council member and self-described socialist, along with several other candidates.

Kansas is holding an open governor's race after term limits end Laura Kelly's tenure. Kelly, a Democrat, won reelection in 2022 despite Kansas' deep Republican lean, though Trump carried the state by 16 points in 2024. Three Democrats and seven Republicans are competing on Tuesday. Trump has endorsed Republican Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson, while Kelly has backed state Senator Ethan Corson for the Democratic nomination.