At a crossroads between political will and market conviction, the Federal Reserve faces a defining test of institutional character. Bond markets, with 10-year Treasury yields at their highest since 2007, are betting heavily that the central bank will raise rates — even as political pressure from the White House pushes in the opposite direction. Leading economists are urging the Fed to honor its mandate over its moment, arguing that the independence of monetary policy is not a courtesy but a cornerstone. What the Fed decides will say as much about the durability of its autonomy as it does about