Farage's Clacton victory won't silence financial scrutiny questions

Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election he had engineered for himself, but he did not stay to celebrate. Hours before the official result was announced, he told a gathering of Reform UK supporters that he had been warned of an "organised campaign to disrupt and degrade the result" and preferred to avoid being "demeaned and humiliated by nobodies." When the count came in, it showed what everyone had expected: Farage had taken the seat with 22,239 votes, running essentially unopposed after Labour and the Conservatives declined to field candidates.

On the surface, the victory seemed to validate everything Farage's allies were saying about him. He remains popular in his Essex constituency. His party has dominated national polling for the better part of two years. He has transformed Reform UK from a fringe outfit into a mass-membership organisation with a genuine shot at power. The by-election itself was a spectacle—34 candidates competed, one of them dressed as a bin, and the ballot paper stretched to 90 centimetres. In a constituency that contains England's most deprived neighbourhood, the council estimated the election would cost taxpayers £250,000 to administer. Reform offered to pay, but electoral law forbids it.

Yet the result changes nothing about the questions that have shadowed Farage for months. The Metropolitan Police investigation into donations to Reform UK remains open, with two people interviewed so far but no arrests. Parliament's standards commissioner is still examining why Farage failed to register a £5 million gift he received from Christopher Harborne, a Thailand-based cryptocurrency billionaire, shortly before the 2024 general election. Farage has called it an "unconditional gift" and offered shifting explanations for why Harborne gave it to him—as a reward for Brexit, or to fund his personal security for life. He insists he did nothing wrong and that parliament's investigation is a "political tool."

There is also the matter of George Cottrell, a 32-year-old convicted fraudster known to associates as "Posh George," who has provided Farage with financial support for security and social media staff, including the use of a luxury flat near Buckingham Palace. Cottrell was arrested at a US airport while travelling with Farage and admitted to wire fraud in 2017. The Sunday Times first reported the arrangement; Farage says he followed all the rules and is considering legal action against the paper.

Farage triggered this by-election himself, announcing last month that he was stepping down to run for the seat he already held, saying the people of Clacton should "be the judges of my actions." Labour accused him of trying to "dodge scrutiny." The Conservatives suggested he was having a "hissy fit." Now that the predictable result is in, the investigations will continue—potentially for months. If parliament's standards watchdog finds that Farage breached the rules, sanctions could force a second by-election. Reform is confident it would win that one too.

But there are signs of trouble beneath the surface. Farage's national approval ratings have slipped significantly. A year ago, he had the highest approval of any major party leader; earlier this month, he hit his worst score since the general election. His negative ratings have risen, suggesting voters may be willing to vote tactically against him. More importantly, fewer people are expressing positive views of him, which pollsters interpret as erosion in his core support. Research from More in Common suggests about 80 percent of voters are aware of the questions around his finances. Among his strongest supporters, the narrative is that it is all an "establishment stitch up." For his opponents, it is simply another reason to dislike him.

Farage has accomplished something real: he has professionalised Reform UK, secured substantial funding, and recruited high-profile figures like Robert Jenrick and Zia Yusuf to prove the party is more than a one-man operation. He may feel emboldened by this by-election victory. But his rivals are framing it as a waste of public money and a personal embarrassment. The real test will not come in Clacton, where the outcome was never in doubt. It will come nationally, where voters will decide whether this self-imposed electoral battle marks the beginning of Farage's decline or a stepping stone toward Downing Street.