Exit Polls Show Voters Rebuking Netanyahu, but Israel's Election Yields No Clear Winner

On the morning of Israel's election, Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief who is Benjamin Netanyahu's main rival, began his day in the communities near Gaza that were attacked on Oct. 7, 2023. "If someone in the government had a shred of responsibility, they would start the morning here," he said. By evening, exit polls released by major Israeli TV stations suggested the day had gone his way, though not decisively.

The polls indicated that Netanyahu's bloc won about 50 seats in the 120-seat parliament. The opposition appeared to take 52 to 53, and Arab-led parties 17 to 18. Eisenkot said the numbers reflected a "lack of confidence" in the prime minister. Arab voters celebrated, and supporters of the far-right parties allied with Netanyahu voiced disappointment.

The numbers do not amount to a government. The simplest route to replacing Netanyahu would have Eisenkot partner with the Arab-led parties, but that could be politically difficult and could alienate other opposition factions. Exit polls, like all surveys, can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours and final results within days, and they may differ from the polls. If no one can assemble a coalition, Israel could face new elections early next year. It held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.

The mechanics favor patience. No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel, so coalitions are the rule. The president asks the leader with the best prospect of forming one, usually the head of the largest party, to try. Minority governments are possible, but they depend on outside parties to pass legislation.

Turnout was high. The Central Elections Committee reported that more than 74% of eligible voters had cast ballots by 8 p.m., the highest figure at that hour in decades and 8 percentage points above the 2022 election. More than 7 million people are eligible to vote, and tens of thousands reportedly traveled from overseas. About 330,000 young Israelis, many facing compulsory military service, voted for the first time.

Arab turnout became a flashpoint. Netanyahu warned that Arab parties were receiving "truly massive support" and going to the polls in "unprecedented numbers." His Likud party petitioned to extend voting past 10 p.m., but the election commission refused, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot had rejected the extension and urged voters to ignore Netanyahu's "scare tactics." Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra'am party, said while voting was underway, "Our vote will change the government." Arabs make up about 20% of Israel's population. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, warned that if Netanyahu's side lost, "it will be Mansour Abbas' government."

Emotions ran high. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, one man kicked and tore down an Eisenkot poster. In Tel Aviv, families of people killed on Oct. 7, and former hostages, held a moment of silence. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed, urged people to "remember all those whose voices are no more." Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, told a cheering crowd that this was "perhaps the most critical day since the founding of the state." Dean Livne, acting director-general of the elections commission, said complaints about irregularities were far fewer than in past elections.

The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule. It was also the first national election since Oct. 7, and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran followed. Settler violence in the West Bank has stoked outrage abroad, American public support has fallen, European partners have imposed sanctions, and Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. He also warned Iran of "a devastating blow" if it attacked.

Supporters see Netanyahu as a steady statesman defending Israel's security and Jewish identity. Critics point to his corruption trial and accuse him of prolonging the Gaza war for political ends, undermining the judiciary, and enabling ultra-Orthodox exemptions from conscription. "The present government is driving the country into the ground," said Jerusalem voter Angela Bengur. In Jaffa, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about "who serves and who evades service." With final counts pending, weeks of coalition bargaining, or another election, lie ahead.