Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israeli Election, Leaving Netanyahu's Fate in Limbo

Israel's polls closed Tuesday night, and the first picture to emerge from the television exit surveys was one of deadlock. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the one led by his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, appeared to have reached the 61 seats needed for a majority in parliament. If the final count bears that out, the country faces weeks of maneuvering before a prime minister is named or another election is called.

The numbers from the major TV stations put Netanyahu's bloc at 50 seats. The opposition was shown with 52 or 53, and Arab parties with 17 or 18. Those figures matter because the Arab-led parties could end up deciding who governs, but both main blocs have so far refused to partner with them. Exit polls carry a margin of error, preliminary results were expected within hours, and final results in the coming days may differ.

The vote was the first national election since Hamas's attack of Oct. 7, 2023, and was widely treated as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule. Israelis were deeply divided over him even before that attack. The wars that followed, in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have drawn worldwide outrage, strained relations with Israel's closest allies and fed a rise in antisemitism. Many Israelis also see the contest as a fight over the character of the state: Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies on one side, and those trying to preserve its liberal and secular foundations on the other.

Turnout was high. By 8 p.m., more than 74% of eligible voters had cast ballots, according to the Central Elections Committee, the highest figure at that hour in decades and 8 percentage points above the 2022 election. More than 7 million people were eligible, and tens of thousands reportedly traveled from overseas. About 330,000 young Israelis, many facing compulsory military service, voted for the first time. Dean Livne, the commission's acting director-general, said complaints about irregularities were far fewer than in earlier elections, though some scattered allegations surfaced.

Arab turnout drew particular attention. Netanyahu, after voting, said Arab parties were receiving "truly massive" support and heading to the polls in unprecedented numbers. He offered no evidence, and he has used warnings of high Arab turnout in past elections to energize right-wing voters. Still, commission data suggested turnout rose significantly in Arab communities and in liberal strongholds. His Likud party petitioned to keep polls open past 10 p.m.; the commission refused, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot had opposed the extension and urged voters to ignore Netanyahu's "scare tactics." Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra'am party, said while voting continued, "Our vote will change the government." Arabs make up about 20% of Israel's population. Far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned that if Netanyahu and his allies fail to win, "it will be Mansour Abbas' government."

The day had its moments of raw feeling. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, a man kicked and tore down an Eisenkot poster. In Tel Aviv, families of people killed on Oct. 7 and of former hostages held a moment of silence. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed, urged people to remember those whose voices are gone. Eisenkot began his day visiting communities attacked on Oct. 7, saying a government with any sense of responsibility would start its morning there. He later called for an end to "the worst government Israel has known," while acknowledging victory was not assured.

The case for and against Netanyahu was familiar. Supporters see a steady statesman who led the country through a war of redemption and defends its security and Jewish identity against outside pressure and liberal elites. Critics see a polarizing figure, facing a corruption trial, who prolonged the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons, weakened the judiciary and tolerated ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service. He also faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, is seen by backers as a security-minded bulwark against illiberalism; parties likely to support him have pledged to restore Israel's standing abroad, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen judicial independence.

No party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so the coming weeks will turn on coalition arithmetic. The official count, and whether either bloc moves toward the Arab parties, will decide whether there is a government or another vote.