Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israeli Election as Netanyahu Refuses to Concede

In the early hours of Wednesday, two campaign headquarters in Israel were celebrating at the same time. Exit polls from the country's major TV stations had just landed, and they pointed to an election with no clear winner. Voters appeared to have rebuked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right and religious coalition, but not enough to finish him.

The numbers, as the exit polls told it, were tight. Netanyahu's bloc and the bloc led by his former military chief, the centrist Gadi Eisenkot, each won about 51 seats in the 120-seat parliament. Arab-led parties took about 18. Netanyahu's Likud party appeared to slip from 32 seats to around 27, yet it would remain the largest party and the one best placed to be asked to form a government. Exit polls can be wrong, and final results are due in the coming days, including hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots still to be counted.

Netanyahu spoke early Wednesday in an upbeat mood, listing the military achievements of the past three years and calling on his opponents to line up behind him. He rejected any government that depends on Arab parties, whose constituents make up 20% of Israel's population, and called such a partnership treasonous. "We must establish a strong, right-wing, nationalist government," he said, warning against a government that relies on "anti-Zionist Arab parties." Even if he cannot form a government himself, that rhetoric could make it harder for his opponents to partner with those parties, and it sets the stage for a possible new vote in which he could gain.

Eisenkot struck a different note, focused on national unity. He pledged to form a government and promised "a new era — an era of hope." Telling supporters that Israel had gone to a referendum on its leadership, he said, "The people decided in favor of change." He has left the door open to working with Arab parties under certain conditions, but some of his other likely partners have ruled it out. The simplest route to a majority runs through those Arab-led factions, which is also the route most likely to alienate parts of his own opposition.

The Arab parties appear to have made a historic showing. Netanyahu had warned on Tuesday that they were receiving "truly massive support" and voting in "unprecedented numbers." At the headquarters of the United Arab List, the only Arab party ever to join a governing coalition, briefly in 2021, the mood was joyful. Party leader Mansour Abbas told supporters, "We are here, we are not on the sidelines," and said the party's duty was to turn this voting bloc into a major political force. Israel's Arab citizens are descendants of Palestinians who stayed after the state's creation in 1948. They hold senior jobs in many sectors but face discrimination and are often viewed as a fifth column, a suspicion that intensified after Oct. 7.

This was Israel's first national vote since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023 attack, the deadliest in the country's history, which set off wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Together with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, those conflicts have stirred worldwide outrage, strained ties with close allies and fed a rise in antisemitism. Public support among Americans has fallen sharply, European and other partners have imposed sanctions, and Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. His opponents were unable to turn the public anger and grief into a decisive win.

The race was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule. His supporters see a steady statesman who led the country through a war of redemption. His detractors point to an ongoing corruption trial, accuse him of prolonging the Gaza war and the hostage crisis for political reasons, and say he is undermining the independent judiciary and abetting draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. His coalition, which peaked at 68 members, began disintegrating over the past year. "The present government is driving the country into the ground," said Jerusalem voter Angela Bengur. Eisenkot's backers see a leader with strong security credentials who personally knows the cost of the war: his son and two nephews were killed in Gaza. Parties likely to support him have vowed to repair Israel's international standing, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen the judiciary.

Next, the president will ask the leader with the best chance of building a coalition, usually the head of the largest party, to try. That could be Netanyahu. Pressure will mount on Eisenkot to strike a deal with the Arab parties, and Netanyahu and his allies are likely to call that illegitimate. No party has ever won an outright majority, and a minority government would depend on outside support. If nobody can assemble a majority, new elections could come early next year, as Israel's five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 showed is possible.