Exit Polls Point to Rebuke of Netanyahu, but Israel's Election Leaves No Clear Winner

By eight o'clock on Tuesday evening, more than 74 percent of eligible Israeli voters had already cast ballots. According to the Central Elections Committee, that was the highest turnout at that hour in decades and eight percentage points above the last election in 2022. Over 7 million people were eligible to vote, and tens of thousands were reported to have arrived from overseas to do it.

When the polls closed, exit polls released by the major Israeli TV stations pointed to a sharp rebuke of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They suggested his bloc won 50 seats, the opposition 52 to 53, and Arab parties 17 to 18. That gives his opponents a solid majority in the 120-seat Knesset, but whether such disparate parties can actually form a government is another matter, and the haggling will likely take weeks. Exit polls, like all surveys, can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours, final results within days, and they may differ.

The opposition is led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and Netanyahu's main rival. He said the exit polls showed a lack of confidence in the prime minister. Arab voters celebrated the numbers, while supporters of the far-right parties allied with Netanyahu voiced disappointment. The easiest route to a majority would have Eisenkot partnering with Arab-led parties, but that could be politically difficult and might alienate other opposition factions. Netanyahu and his allies are likely to call any such alliance illegitimate, even treasonous. Netanyahu himself had warned earlier in the day that Arab parties were receiving "truly massive support" and heading to the polls in "unprecedented numbers."

The process now moves to Israel's president, who will ask the party leader with the best chance of building a coalition, usually the one with the most seats, to try. If Netanyahu's Likud emerges as the largest party, he could claim that right. No party has ever won an outright majority in the Knesset, so coalitions are the rule. Minority governments are possible but depend on outside parties to pass legislation. If no one can assemble a majority, new elections could come early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.

This was the country's first national election since Hamas's attack of Oct. 7, 2023, and it was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule. Israelis were bitterly divided over many issues even before that attack. The wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have stirred worldwide outrage, strained ties with close allies and fed a rise in antisemitism. Many Israelis also view the vote as a contest over the character of the state: Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies against those hoping to preserve its liberal and secular foundations.

The day carried its own weight. In Tel Aviv, families of people killed on Oct. 7 and former hostages held a moment of silence. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, one man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot. About 330,000 young Israelis, many facing compulsory military service, could vote for the first time. Eisenkot began his day in communities attacked on Oct. 7, saying that if anyone in government had a shred of responsibility, they would start the morning there. He later urged voters to remove "the worst government Israel has known," cautioning that victory was not certain and calling it perhaps the most critical day since the state's founding. Dean Livne, acting director-general of the elections commission, said complaints about irregularities were scattered and far fewer than in earlier elections.

The arguments over Netanyahu are familiar. Supporters see a steady statesman who led the country through a war of redemption and defends its security and Jewish identity against international pressure and liberal elites. Detractors, pointing to his ongoing corruption trial, say he prolonged the Gaza war and the hostage crisis for political reasons, undermined the judiciary, and abetted a system letting ultra-Orthodox men avoid conscription. He also faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. Voter Angela Bengur in Jerusalem said the government is driving the country into the ground; Nisso Shitrit in Jaffa said the vote is about who serves and who evades service.

Eisenkot's backers see a leader with strong security credentials, one who lost his son and two nephews in Gaza. The parties likely to support him have pledged to repair Israel's international standing, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen the judiciary's independence. Whether they can govern together depends on final counts, and on a coalition arithmetic that may take weeks to settle.