Two Republicans could emerge from a state where Democrats vastly outnumber them
In the nation's most populous state, a governor's race without a clear heir has drawn more than sixty aspirants into a single contest, leaving California suspended between outcomes as mail-in ballots are slowly counted. Xavier Becerra, a Democrat shaped by federal health policy, and Steve Hilton, a British-born Republican carrying Trump's endorsement, lead a field so fragmented that the party of overwhelming majority fears being shut out of its own general election. The jungle primary — indifferent to party loyalty — has turned California's political dominance into a liability, reminding observers that numerical advantage means little when a coalition cannot agree on a single voice. The result, still days away, will say something not only about California but about the broader difficulty of democratic governance in an age of fracture.
- With no incumbent to consolidate support and over sixty candidates splitting the Democratic vote, the party that dominates California faces the surreal possibility of watching two Republicans advance to November.
- The race became the most expensive gubernatorial contest in state history, with billionaire Tom Steyer and Silicon Valley-backed candidates flooding the airwaves in a desperate bid to be heard above the noise.
- Steve Hilton — barefoot campaigner, former Cameron adviser, Fox News host — is running as a system-disruptor in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2015.
- Xavier Becerra is betting that a record of steady administration and an explicit anti-Trump posture will cut through the chaos and give Democrats a recognizable standard-bearer.
- Heavy reliance on mail-in ballots means the final count could stretch for days, prolonging uncertainty in a state whose political outcomes on immigration, climate, and housing tend to echo far beyond its borders.
A day after California voters went to the polls, the governor's race remained unresolved. Xavier Becerra, who served as health secretary under President Biden, led among Democrats on promises to freeze insurance and utility rates. Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host who once advised British Prime Minister David Cameron, led among Republicans on a platform of tax cuts, deregulation, and stricter immigration enforcement — carrying Donald Trump's endorsement into a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly two to one. Behind them, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer held third. The final count, dependent on a flood of mail-in ballots, could take several more days.
The race had grown unwieldy in ways few anticipated. Governor Gavin Newsom was constitutionally barred from seeking another term, and no obvious successor emerged to consolidate Democratic support. Into that vacuum poured more than sixty candidates — including former congresswoman Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and Eric Swalwell, who dropped out and resigned from Congress in April amid denied allegations of sexual assault. One candidate legally changed his name to "Barack Obama Shaw."
The fragmentation alarmed Democratic leaders. California's jungle primary advances the top two finishers regardless of party, meaning a splintered Democratic vote could theoretically send two Republicans to the general election — an outcome the state has not seen in over a decade. The contest became the most expensive gubernatorial race in California history as candidates spent heavily to be heard.
Hilton's path to this moment was unusual: a British political strategist turned American television personality, he campaigned with a deliberately unconventional image — often tieless, sometimes barefoot — positioning himself as the candidate willing to break what isn't working. Becerra ran as the experienced hand, his opposition to Trump woven into the center of his pitch.
California's size and influence — the world's fifth-largest economy — meant the outcome carried weight beyond the state. As ballots continued to be counted, the race remained open, its resolution still capable of reshaping both the state's political landscape and the national conversation about how Democrats navigate an era of deep division.
A day after California voters cast their ballots, the state's governor's race remained suspended in uncertainty. Two names sat atop the count: Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who served as health secretary under President Biden, and Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host with roots in British politics. Behind them, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer held third place. The final answer would not come quickly. California's reliance on mail-in voting meant the tally could stretch on for days, and with it, the identity of which two candidates would face off in November's general election.
Becerra built his campaign on his record in Congress and state office, promising to freeze insurance and utility rates if elected. Hilton, who once advised former UK Prime Minister David Cameron before his television career, ran on a platform of disruption—cutting taxes and regulations, tackling homelessness, and rolling back the state's sanctuary policies in favor of closer cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. He carried Trump's endorsement into a state where Republican voters are outnumbered by Democrats roughly two to one. The last Republican to hold the governor's office was Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose tenure ended in 2015.
The race had descended into chaos in ways that seemed unlikely for a state where Democrats hold overwhelming numerical advantage. Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, was barred from seeking another term by constitutional limits, leaving no obvious successor to consolidate the party's support. That vacuum drew a flood of candidates. More than sixty people filed to run, including one who legally changed his name to "Barack Obama Shaw." The field included former congresswoman Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (backed by Silicon Valley money), and Democratic congressman Eric Swalwell, who dropped out and resigned from Congress in April after facing allegations of sexual assault, which he denied.
The sheer number of Democrats in the race sparked genuine alarm among party leadership. California's primary system—often called the jungle primary—advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party affiliation. With the Democratic vote fractured across multiple candidates, there was a real possibility that two Republicans could emerge from a state that had not elected a Republican governor in over a decade. The race became the most expensive gubernatorial contest in California history, with Steyer and other candidates spending heavily on advertising to cut through the noise.
Hilton's political biography was unconventional for an American candidate. In Britain, he had been known for helping shape Conservative Party strategy during the turbulent years that led to Brexit. In California, he cultivated a distinctive image—often appearing without a tie, sometimes barefoot—while campaigning as a system-disruptor who would solve the state's intractable problems. Becerra, by contrast, ran as a seasoned administrator with a track record, framing his opposition to Trump as central to his candidacy.
California's scale and influence made the outcome consequential beyond the state's borders. It is the nation's most populous state and the world's fifth-largest economy. Its political battles over immigration, climate policy, homelessness, housing costs, and energy prices have rippled across the country. The governor's race was not the only closely watched contest on the ballot. Los Angeles was simultaneously holding a mayoral primary where political veterans competed against reality television star Spencer Pratt, who was running as a Republican.
As mail-in ballots continued to be processed and counted, California waited to learn which two candidates would carry forward to November. The answer would reshape the political landscape of the state and, potentially, influence national conversations about how Democrats could govern in an era of deep partisan division.
Notable Quotes
Becerra promised to freeze insurance and utility rates if elected, framing his campaign around his record in Congress and state office— Xavier Becerra
Hilton pledged to make the state affordable by cutting taxes and regulations, and vowed to solve the homelessness crisis— Steve Hilton
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did so many Democrats jump into a race that should have been theirs to lose?
Because there was no obvious heir. Newsom couldn't run again, and no single Democrat had the stature to scare others out of the field. So everyone saw an opening.
And that fractured vote is now the party's nightmare?
Exactly. The jungle primary system means the top two advance, regardless of party. With Democrats splitting votes across a dozen candidates, two Republicans could theoretically make it through in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one.
How did Hilton, a British political operative, become a serious contender in California?
He reinvented himself. After advising David Cameron, he went into television at Fox News, built a following, and positioned himself as an outsider willing to disrupt the system. Trump's endorsement gave him legitimacy with Republican voters.
What's Becerra's actual advantage here?
He has a record. He's been a congressman, a state official, a cabinet secretary. He can point to things he's done. In a crowded field, that kind of credential matters.
Will mail-in voting delay the result significantly?
Almost certainly. California processes hundreds of thousands of ballots by mail. It could take days to know for certain who the final two are.
If Hilton makes it to November, does he have any real chance?
It's steep. He'd be running in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since 2010. But stranger things have happened, and he's not a typical Republican.