Every Putin Call, Another Trump Retreat: Tomahawks Stall as the Ukraine War Grinds On

Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew to Washington on Friday, October 17, expecting to press his case for long-range Tomahawk missiles, which Donald Trump had recently said he was weighing sending to Kyiv. He left the White House with nothing. While he was still in the air, Trump had taken a surprise phone call from Vladimir Putin that ran two hours.

In that call, the Russian president repeated his warning that supplying such weapons would damage relations between the United States and Russia. He also praised Trump's peace efforts in the Middle East and floated another high-profile summit, this time in Budapest.

Hours later, sitting with Zelenskyy, Trump described the Tomahawks as a big deal and said Washington did not want to give away things it needs to protect its own country. He urged both sides to stop the killing and make a deal. That was a noticeably different register from the previous weekend, when the two presidents spoke by phone twice and apparently went into some detail about the terms of American supply and Ukrainian use. Weeks earlier, in late September, Trump had abruptly said he believed Ukraine was in a position to fight and win back all of its territory in its original form.

Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, reads the sequence this way: Trump, frustrated at being unable to push Moscow and Kyiv toward a deal, appeared to be turning decisively toward Ukraine. That worried the Kremlin enough, Wolff argues, that it asked for the call. If the goal was to take Tomahawks off the table and re-engage Trump on warmer terms, he writes, Putin has for now succeeded. There is no sign of imminent delivery.

Wolff also notes that the missiles were never a sure thing. There were doubts about whether the US could supply them in the quantities Ukraine needs, and since they are now mostly used by the US Navy, it was unclear whether enough land-based launchers existed. They would have extended the reach of Ukraine's existing weapons, letting its forces hit command centres, air bases, logistics hubs, training grounds and supply lines far behind the front. But Wolff doubts they would have forced Russia into serious negotiations. That would probably have taken dozens, if not hundreds, of successful strikes in quick succession, before Russian air defences could adapt, backed by a credible threat of a sustained campaign.

The larger significance, in his view, is symbolic: Putin still seems able to do just enough to stop Trump from fully committing to Ukraine's war effort, and in doing so has bought Russia more time.

New high-level talks between American and Russian officials are due to begin this week, with Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio leading the US delegation. Trump and Putin agreed they would then meet in person to see if they can end what Trump called an "inglorious" war. No timeline has been set for those talks and no deadline for a summit.

Wolff says the absence of a deadline gives Putin room to keep wearing Ukraine down, with continued attacks on critical infrastructure and further territorial gains along the front in the Donbas region. A ceasefire and direct Ukraine-Russia negotiations are both off the table for now. The path looks closer to what Wolff sees as Putin's likely preferred outcome: a deal struck with Washington that cuts out Kyiv and its European allies.

Wolff says it is unclear how Putin resold Trump on this idea, but that it shows how volatile Trump's approach to ending the war is. He adds that Putin may not even need the ploy to work, since he remains convinced Russia's manpower advantage will eventually defeat Ukraine, provided the US stays out. The coming Rubio-led talks and any Budapest summit are the next things to watch.