Europe's June heatwave destroys €2bn in crops, threatening food prices

The grain harvest across Europe is going to be smaller than it has been in eight years, and the reason is simple: June was brutally hot. Record temperatures that month destroyed enough crops to cost farmers roughly two billion euros in lost revenue—nine million tonnes of wheat, barley, maize, and oats that will never reach the market. The scale of that loss is difficult to grasp until you compare it to something concrete: it exceeds the entire grain production that Austria, Ireland, and the Netherlands are expected to produce combined.

Coceral, the trade association that represents European grain and oilseed producers, made the calculation after the heatwave passed. The damage was not random. Maize suffered during pollination, the window when the plant is most vulnerable to heat stress. Wheat was hit during what farmers call grain fill—the critical weeks when the crop needs moisture to develop properly and build yield. Without that water, the grain simply does not mature as it should. The timing could hardly have been worse.

France bore the heaviest blow. The country lost an estimated 3.4 million tonnes of maize alone, with the total value of lost grain production reaching roughly 891 million euros. Hungary and Spain followed, each losing millions of tonnes. In the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region of France, farmer Benoît Merlo watched temperatures exceed 38 degrees Celsius for weeks. He had spent a decade adapting his operation to hotter, drier conditions. None of it mattered. He expects to lose at least half his yield on some crops—possibly 70 percent on soya.

Britain faced its own version of the crisis. The June heat followed a dry spring, leaving soil moisture depleted across much of the country. East Anglia and parts of southeast England were hit hardest, though the damage was scattered and regional. Farmers accelerated their harvests, racing against the heat and dryness. Helen Plant, a cereals analyst at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, noted that the dry conditions through April and May had already stressed crop development before the June temperatures arrived. The result remains uncertain—the board has not yet issued a final harvest forecast.

For farmers already exhausted by extreme weather, this is another blow in a sequence of blows. Paul Tompkins, deputy president of the National Farmers' Union, pointed out that British farmers had endured difficult harvests in both 2024 and 2025, years marked by drought and flooding. Now they are facing another year of losses, working around the clock to bring in crops early, keep vegetables watered, and manage livestock under stress.

The consequences will ripple outward. Europe will need to import more grain to make up the shortfall, which will push global commodity prices higher. That pressure is already building from another direction: severe drought in the southern and western United States is damaging grain and meat production there as well. The southern hemisphere harvest, expected in late 2026 and early 2027, will influence how much prices rise, but the direction is already set. Cheaper food is not coming soon.

Tom Lancaster, an analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, framed the stakes plainly: the losses will reduce farmers' income and undermine European food security at the same time. The continent has already recorded three of its five worst harvests this decade. The pattern is becoming difficult to ignore.