In Washington, Latvia's president Edgars Rinkēvičs offered a sober reckoning with a truth that alliances prefer not to speak aloud: the speed of modern warfare is outpacing the speed of modern preparation. As drone and missile technology evolves at what he called 'lightning speed' over Ukrainian skies, the defensive architectures of NATO — built for a slower, more predictable world — risk becoming relics before they are even finished. The warning is not merely technical; it is a question of whether democratic coalitions can summon collective will before the window for doing so quietly closes.
Latvia warns Europe unprepared for Russia's evolving drone warfare
The drone war is accelerating. European preparation is not.
Mark
So when Rinkēvičs says air defense has "serious problems," is he talking about a shortage of systems, or systems that don't work well against what Russia is actually deploying?
Mimi
Both, really. The systems exist, but they're being overwhelmed by the pace of innovation. Drones are getting cheaper, faster, more autonomous. The interceptors that stop them are expensive and finite. And right now, the US is running low.
Luke
But we should be careful here—he's saying most NATO countries couldn't repel an attack, but we don't have a detailed inventory of what each country actually has. That's a judgment call based on what he's observing in Ukraine, not a comprehensive audit.
Mark
Fair point. So the Patriot shortage—is that the main problem, or is it one piece of a bigger puzzle?
Mimi
It's the most concrete one. The US burned through two-thirds of its interceptor stocks in Iran operations. That's a real number with real consequences. But it's also a symptom of a larger problem: Europe has been underinvesting in air defense for decades, assuming the US would handle it.
Luke
And the outsourcing idea—producing Patriots in Europe—that's been discussed but hasn't happened. We don't know why exactly. Licensing, technical issues, political will. The source doesn't give us the full picture there.
Mark
What about the Russian threat itself? Is Rinkēvičs saying Russia will definitely escalate, or that it might?
Mimi
He's saying Russia is already testing. The drone over Lithuania, the strikes on Polish airports—those are happening now. What he's warning about is a deliberate campaign to see if Europe will crack under pressure.
Luke
But he's also ruling out a conventional invasion. So the threat is real but bounded. It's hybrid warfare, not World War III. That distinction matters.
Mark
And the time problem—he keeps saying Europe needs time to build capability. But time is what Russia isn't giving them.
Mimi
Exactly. The winter is coming. Russia will push harder. And Europe's defenses are still being built. It's a race where one side is accelerating and the other is still trying to get moving.
Der Puls
- Latvia's president warns that NATO's air defenses could be obsolete within months, as drone warfare in Ukraine evolves faster than any alliance response can match.
- The US has exhausted nearly two-thirds of its Patriot interceptor stocks through operations against Iran, and replenishment will take at least five years — leaving a critical gap in the West's most reliable missile defense.
- Poland's prime minister and Latvia's president both warn that Russia may soon test Article 5 directly, disguising deliberate strikes on NATO members as accidents to probe whether collective defense will actually hold.
- A Russian drone was shot down over Lithuania, Poland scrambled jets and closed airports after a Ukrainian strike spilled westward — these are not errors, they are calibrated pressure.
- Europe's defense spending debate grows more urgent but no faster: Rinkēvičs cautioned that real military capability cannot be conjured in a month or a year, even as the threat accelerates through winter.
In Washington, Latvia's president Edgars Rinkēvičs offered a sober reckoning with a truth that alliances prefer not to speak aloud: the speed of modern warfare is outpacing the speed of modern preparation. As drone and missile technology evolves at what he called 'lightning speed' over Ukrainian skies, the defensive architectures of NATO — built for a slower, more predictable world — risk becoming relics before they are even finished. The warning is not merely technical; it is a question of whether democratic coalitions can summon collective will before the window for doing so quietly closes.
Sitting down with The Guardian in Washington, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs delivered an assessment that cut against the reassuring language of alliance solidarity: Europe is losing ground in a technological race it may not fully recognize it is running. Drone and aerial warfare in Ukraine is advancing at what he called 'lightning speed,' and defensive systems being assembled today could be obsolete within months. The problem, he was careful to note, belongs to no single country — it belongs to NATO itself.
The vulnerability is not abstract. Rinkēvičs suggested that most alliance members would struggle to repel even a modest Russian missile volley if conflict expanded into NATO territory. Poland's prime minister Donald Tusk had warned days earlier that Russia might deliberately strike alliance members supporting Ukraine, framing such attacks as accidents to test whether Article 5 would actually trigger a collective response. When asked, Trump acknowledged that Russian attacks on Ukrainian allies had been occurring for years, then pivoted — leaving the escalation question unanswered.
The ammunition crisis sharpens the picture. The United States has burned through roughly two-thirds of its Patriot interceptor stocks in operations against Iran, with replenishment projected to take at least five years. Efforts to outsource Patriot production to Europe and Ukraine have stalled on technical and licensing complications. 'Patriots are still one of the best, if not the best, to tackle this,' Rinkēvičs said — and without a reliable supply, the defensive architecture built around them begins to hollow out.
Rinkēvičs did not forecast a conventional Russian invasion of Baltic territory. Instead, he described a different and perhaps more insidious threat: after local elections, Russia would intensify pressure in Ukraine through the winter while simultaneously deploying sabotage, cyber-attacks, and drone and missile incidents against European nations — probes designed to erode resolve and discourage continued support for Kyiv. A Russian drone shot down over Lithuania and Poland scrambling jets after a strike on western Ukraine were offered not as alarming anomalies, but as early data points in a pattern already forming.
On defense spending, Rinkēvičs acknowledged that conversations within NATO had grown more constructive, but he pushed back against any assumption that capability could follow commitment quickly. 'When it comes to real capabilities, you need time,' he said. 'It cannot happen in a month, or in a year.' The drone war is accelerating. European preparation, by his account, is not.
Edgars Rinkēvičs, Latvia's president, sat down with The Guardian in Washington DC and delivered a stark assessment: Europe is falling behind in a race it may already be losing. The technological pace of drone and aerial warfare in Ukraine is moving at what he called "lightning speed," and the defensive measures being assembled now could be obsolete within months. The problem, as he saw it, was not unique to any single nation. "Air defence, drone defence, anti-ballistic defence has serious problems," he said. "And let's be frank. Ukraine has it. The whole of Europe and Nato has it."
The vulnerability runs deeper than abstract capability gaps. If Russia were to launch even a modest volley of missiles into NATO territory, Rinkēvičs suggested, most alliance members would struggle to mount an effective response. This is not theoretical concern. Poland's prime minister, Donald Tusk, had warned just days earlier that Russia might test NATO's commitment by launching drone or missile strikes against the alliance's members who support Ukraine—framing such attacks as accidents to probe whether Article 5, the collective defense clause, would actually hold. Trump, when asked about this possibility, acknowledged that Russian attacks on Ukrainian allies had already been occurring for roughly five years, then pivoted to endorsing Poland's president without directly addressing the escalation risk.
The immediate bottleneck is ammunition. The United States has burned through nearly two-thirds of its stocks of critical Patriot interceptors in operations against Iran, according to Congressional Budget Office analysis. Replenishing those stocks will take at least five years. Meanwhile, discussions about outsourcing Patriot production to Ukraine and Europe have stalled over technical and licensing complications. Rinkēvičs acknowledged that Europe has some manufacturing capacity, but the reality is blunt: "Patriots are still one of the best, if not the best, to tackle this." Without them, or without a reliable supply, the defensive architecture crumbles.
Rinkēvičs did not predict a conventional invasion. The Baltic nations, sitting on Russia's eastern flank, have seen no indication that Moscow intends to retake Soviet-era territory through traditional military means. But he outlined a different threat pattern. Russia would increase mobilization after local elections, he said, then use the winter months to intensify pressure in Ukraine while simultaneously deploying what he called "all kinds of other possibilities"—sabotage, cyber-attacks, drone strikes, and missile incidents designed to wear down European resolve and discourage continued support for Kyiv. A Russian drone was shot down over Lithuania by a NATO jet on Tuesday. Poland scrambled fighters and closed two airports on Thursday after a Russian strike on western Ukraine. These are not accidents. They are probes.
The conversation also circled back to a demand that has become central to Trump's approach to NATO: defense spending. The White House has set a benchmark of 5 percent of GDP, and Rinkēvičs expressed concern about whether European allies were on track to meet it. He acknowledged that discussions had become "more constructive," but he also pushed back gently against the implication that spending could be ramped up overnight. "When it comes to real capabilities, you need time," he said. "It cannot happen in a month, or in a year." The warning was clear: Europe faces an urgent threat, but the solutions require patience and resources that may not materialize fast enough. The drone war in Ukraine is accelerating. European preparation is not.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Air defence, drone defence, anti-ballistic defence has serious problems. And let's be frank. Ukraine has it. The whole of Europe and Nato has it.— Edgars Rinkēvičs, Latvia's president
If Russia decides to use a couple of missiles in that territory, I think that would be a serious challenge today for many countries to cope with that.— Edgars Rinkēvičs
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