As American diplomacy tilts toward accommodating Russian territorial gains and closing NATO's door to Ukraine, a countervailing force has emerged from European capitals: the conviction that a people at war must not be bargained away in their absence. Seven nations and the European Commission gathered in Paris to assert what history has repeatedly taught — that peace imposed without the consent of those who bear its cost rarely holds. Ukraine, caught between great-power negotiations and its own survival, is now contemplating what it means to become its own guarantor of security.
Europe insists Ukraine must be part of peace talks as Trump signals openness to Russian terms
Kerch Bridge explosion killed four people; ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure threaten civilian access to gas and heating.
If Ukraine is not in NATO, Ukraine will build NATO on its territory
Mark
Why does Europe care so much about Ukraine being at the table? Couldn't they just let the US and Russia work it out?
Mimi
Because if you're not in the room when decisions about your future are made, you have no say in what that future looks like. Europe learned that lesson the hard way in the twentieth century. And practically speaking, any deal that Ukraine doesn't agree to won't hold.
Mark
But Trump seems to think he can negotiate this without them. What makes him confident?
Mimi
He's thinking transactionally—two leaders, two armies, territory on the map. He's not thinking about the fact that Ukraine has been fighting for three years and has no reason to accept terms it didn't help write.
Mark
So what's Zelenskyy's actual plan if NATO is off the table?
Mimi
He's saying Ukraine will become its own military alliance. Build an army as big as Russia's, with American help. It's a way of saying: if you won't protect us collectively, we'll protect ourselves individually. It's defiant, but it's also a recognition that he might not win this argument.
Mark
Is that realistic? Can Ukraine really build an army that size?
Mimi
Not without sustained American support and resources. Which is why he's also pursuing these minerals deals and security partnerships—he's trying to lock in American commitment through economic ties, not just military ones.
Mark
What about the spy they arrested? Does that suggest Ukraine has internal problems?
Mimi
It suggests Ukraine is fighting on multiple fronts—against Russia externally, but also against Russian infiltration internally. The fact that Zelenskyy was personally informed suggests he's taking it seriously.
The Pulse
- Washington's signals — accepting Russian territorial gains and blocking Ukraine's NATO path — have fractured the Western alliance's unified front at a moment of maximum vulnerability for Kyiv.
- Europe moved swiftly and in unison, with seven nations and the EU declaring that no settlement is legitimate unless Ukraine sits at the table and shapes its own terms.
- Zelenskyy, refusing to wait for permission, proposed building a NATO-equivalent military force on Ukrainian soil — a defiant pivot from seeking membership to manufacturing deterrence from scratch.
- A minerals and security deal with the US Treasury offers Ukraine a potential economic lifeline, with both sides racing to sign an agreement at the Munich Security Conference.
- Beneath the diplomacy, the war grinds on — Russian strikes on gas infrastructure threaten civilian heating, and Estonia's intelligence service reveals China has become the primary conduit for drone components reaching Russian forces.
As American diplomacy tilts toward accommodating Russian territorial gains and closing NATO's door to Ukraine, a countervailing force has emerged from European capitals: the conviction that a people at war must not be bargained away in their absence. Seven nations and the European Commission gathered in Paris to assert what history has repeatedly taught — that peace imposed without the consent of those who bear its cost rarely holds. Ukraine, caught between great-power negotiations and its own survival, is now contemplating what it means to become its own guarantor of security.
On Wednesday, as American officials signaled comfort with Russian territorial gains and Ukraine's permanent exclusion from NATO, seven European nations and the European Commission convened in Paris alongside Ukraine's foreign minister to deliver a unified rebuke: no peace settlement would be legitimate without Kyiv at the table.
The fracture had sharpened over forty-eight hours. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth declared pre-2014 borders unrealistic and NATO membership off the table. Then Trump spoke directly with Putin and announced negotiations would begin immediately, with a planned meeting in Saudi Arabia — no European names on the guest list. When asked which allies would participate, the White House press secretary offered none.
Britain's defence secretary John Healey stated the obvious with quiet force: the Ukrainians are the ones fighting, and it is their decision when and on what terms to negotiate. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, was already thinking past the alliance. In an interview with the Economist, he proposed that if NATO would not admit Ukraine, Ukraine would build NATO on its own territory — calling on the United States to help construct an army matching Russia's in scale. Defiant in tone, the proposal was also coldly pragmatic.
Other pressures mounted. Ukraine's Security Service detained a senior official allegedly working for Russian intelligence — an operation overseen at the highest levels. In Russia, eight men went on trial behind closed doors for the Kerch Bridge bombing that killed four and disrupted the illegal crossing for months.
On the economic front, Zelenskyy met US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to advance a critical minerals deal framed as a postwar 'security shield,' with both sides hoping to sign at the Munich Security Conference. Britain separately pledged £150 million in military aid including drones, tanks, and air defence systems.
Yet the war's attrition continued without pause. Russian strikes on gas infrastructure left Ukraine dependent on partner imports for civilian heating. And Estonia's foreign intelligence service revealed that roughly eighty percent of Western components reaching Russia's drone production now flow through Chinese channels — an accusation Beijing dismissed as baseless.
The shape of the moment was becoming clear: the United States moving toward a settlement that rewards Russian conquest, Europe insisting Ukraine must author its own fate, and Ukraine itself quietly preparing to defend a future no alliance has yet agreed to guarantee.
On Wednesday, as American officials signaled a willingness to accept Russian territorial gains and exclude Ukraine from NATO, seven European nations and the European Commission gathered in Paris with Ukraine's foreign minister to deliver a blunt message: nothing about ending this war gets decided without the Ukrainians at the table.
The collision between Washington and Europe had crystallized over the previous forty-eight hours. Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, had declared that restoring Ukraine's pre-2014 borders was unrealistic and that NATO membership for Kyiv was not part of any solution. Then Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin, after which the American president announced his teams would begin negotiations immediately and he would meet the Russian leader in Saudi Arabia. Trump made clear he was comfortable with Ukraine being barred from NATO and indifferent to Russia keeping the territory it had seized. When asked whether European countries would participate in peace talks, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had no names to offer.
The European response was swift and unified. France, Britain, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, and the European Commission issued a joint statement: Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations. John Healey, Britain's defence secretary, put it plainly to Sky News—the Ukrainians are the ones fighting, and it is their decision when and on what terms to talk.
Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was already sketching an alternative future. In an interview with the Economist, he said that if Ukraine could not join NATO, it would build NATO on its own territory. He called on the United States to help Ukraine construct an army as large as Russia's as a fallback plan. The language was defiant but also pragmatic: if the alliance would not have Ukraine, Ukraine would become its own alliance.
Other developments underscored both the stakes and the fractures in Ukraine's position. The Security Service of Ukraine announced it had detained a high-ranking official within its own ranks who was allegedly working for Russia—an operation personally overseen by the SBU chief and reported to Zelenskyy. Eight men went on trial in Russia on Wednesday, charged with terrorism over the truck bomb that had torn through the Kerch Bridge, the illegal crossing Russia had built from its territory to occupied Crimea. The explosion had killed four people and crippled the bridge for months. The trial was being held behind closed doors in a military court in Rostov-on-Don.
On the economic front, Zelenskyy met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss a critical minerals deal that could provide Ukraine with what Bessent called "a security shield" once the war ended. The two countries were drafting a new document on security, economic cooperation, and resource partnership, with hopes to sign an agreement at the Munich Security Conference beginning Friday. Britain, for its part, announced £150 million in military aid to Ukraine, including drones, tanks, and air defence systems.
But the war's grinding attrition continued. Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian gas facilities meant Ukraine would need help from partners to import additional gas, according to deputy energy minister Roman Andarak. And a new vulnerability had surfaced: Estonia's foreign intelligence service reported that China had become a hub for smuggling critical Western components to Russia's military drone production, with about eighty percent of such components now reaching Moscow through Chinese channels. China's embassy in Tallinn dismissed the accusation as baseless and reiterated that Beijing never provides weapons to parties in the conflict.
The picture emerging was one of deepening fracture. The United States was moving toward a settlement that would leave Russia with its conquests and Ukraine outside NATO. Europe was insisting that Ukraine must have a voice in its own fate. And Ukraine itself was preparing for a future in which it would have to defend itself alone—building the military capacity of a nation, if the alliance would not have it as a member.
Notable Quotes
It's the Ukrainians that are doing the fighting. It's for them to decide when to start talking and on what terms.— John Healey, British Defence Secretary
If Ukraine is not in NATO, it means that Ukraine will build NATO on its territory.— Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Want the full story?
Read the original at The Guardian ↗
Politics & Governance