Ethiopia's Fragile Peace Collapses as Former Enemies Unite Against Federal Government

Four years after a peace agreement was supposed to end one of Africa's deadliest recent wars, Ethiopia is sliding back into armed conflict—but this time with a twist that makes the situation harder to resolve. In the weeks before fighting resumed in the north, groups that had spent years killing each other announced they were joining forces against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government. The alliance includes the Oromo Liberation Army, factions of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, armed groups from the Benishangul-Gumuz region, and ethnic militias from Afar. Even Eritrea, which had fought alongside the federal government in the previous war, appears to have shifted sides and is now quietly supporting the rebels. What makes this moment so precarious is that the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which officially ended the Tigray conflict after two years of fighting that killed hundreds of thousands, left crucial actors out of the room.

The agreement ignored three critical players. Eritrea's role in the war was never addressed in the final text, even though Eritrean troops had fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces. The Amhara militias known as Fano, who had been instrumental in the fighting, felt completely sidelined when negotiations concluded without them. And hardliners within the Tigray People's Liberation Front viewed the peace deal as a military defeat rather than a genuine settlement. When the federal government later moved to forcibly disarm the Fano instead of addressing their underlying grievances, tensions that had been simmering beneath the surface erupted. The government's approach—trying to impose disarmament rather than negotiate—only deepened the resentment among groups that felt they had been excluded from the peace process and then punished for it.

What is striking about the current alliance is how unlikely it is. These groups represent different ethnic constituencies and have little in common beyond their opposition to Abiy's government. The Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden factions, the Benishangul-Gumuz groups, and the Afar militants all have separate agendas and separate bases of support. Analysts describe the level of coordination among them as significant and alarming, but they also note that such coalitions are inherently fragile. How long the alliance holds together remains uncertain, particularly given that each group is ultimately fighting for its own interests. The fighting itself is expected to remain concentrated in Ethiopia's northern regions—particularly along the borders between Tigray, Amhara, and Afar—rather than spreading across the entire country. The rough terrain and the fragmentation of opposition groups elsewhere make nationwide coordination unlikely.

The international community's withdrawal of attention after 2022 created the conditions for this collapse. The Pretoria agreement did show early signs of working: the TPLF surrendered heavy weapons in 2022 and 2023, and there was genuine implementation of key provisions. But as global attention shifted to other crises, both sides quietly began rearming and recruiting new fighters. The United States lifted sanctions that had been imposed during the 2020-2022 war, removing one of the few remaining levers the West had to pressure combatants back to the negotiating table. What looked like a ceasefire was really a pause—a stopgap measure that allowed the underlying tensions to fester while the international community looked away.

Civilians are paying the price. Hundreds of thousands of people who were displaced during the 2020-2022 war never returned to their homes. They remain in makeshift camps for internally displaced persons, and now they are being displaced again as fighting resumes. There have been reports of drone strikes hitting civilian areas and of rebel groups positioning military equipment inside schools and clinics. Telephone and internet connections have been cut in parts of Tigray and Amhara. Electricity has been disrupted. Flights to cities including Kombolcha and Lalibela have been suspended. All parties have issued official assurances that they will protect civilians, but the reality on the ground tells a different story.

Prospects for negotiated settlement appear dim. The UN Secretary-General dispatched a special envoy to mediate, working with the African Union, regional powers, and Egypt—many of the same actors who brokered the Pretoria agreement. But analysts are skeptical that international or regional mediation can resolve the current fighting. Meaningful negotiations are unlikely until at least one side comes to understand that violence will not achieve its goals. In the absence of that realization, experts predict intense but geographically contained fighting will continue for the foreseeable future. Ethiopia's most complex contemporary armed conflict is not one that outsiders are likely to solve.