Ethiopia's forces retake Mekelle as Tigray conflict reignites

On Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces and allied militia fighters entered Mekelle, the capital of Tigray region, after the Tigray People's Liberation Front announced its withdrawal from the city. The TPLF said the move was tactical—its regional administration would operate from elsewhere, and fighting would continue from other positions—but the capture of the city marks a turning point in a conflict that many feared would never return. Less than four years had passed since the Pretoria agreement, signed in November 2022, ended two years of devastating war. Now, residents across Ethiopia and the region are bracing for what comes next.

The previous war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, killed hundreds of thousands of people by most estimates and displaced millions more. Infrastructure lay in ruins. Livelihoods were destroyed. The peace agreement that followed left critical questions unresolved: the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced populations, the disarmament of Tigrayan forces. In July of this year, the TPLF declared the agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement its core provisions. The federal government rejected this, insisting it remained committed to peace while blaming the TPLF for undermining the accord. What followed were months of military tension—sporadic clashes, drone strikes, accusations of troop movements and war preparations.

Berihu, a 32-year-old bajaj driver in Shire, in northwestern Tigray, spoke by phone about what the return of fighting meant to him. "I feel very heartbroken knowing that Tigray has gone back to full-scale war," he said. "We have already seen what the last war did to our people, and now it feels like we are going through it all over again." He had witnessed villages bombed and civilians caught in the crossfire during the previous conflict. The thought that ordinary people might bear that cost again was almost unbearable to contemplate.

In Mekelle itself, residents woke to uncertainty. Goitom, 37, described the moment the TPLF withdrew on Friday night: gunfire echoed through the city, but no one knew what was happening. A security vacuum opened. Theft broke out in some areas, including government offices. By Saturday, federal forces had secured key locations—the airport, strategic positions throughout the city. "It feels like we are back to square one," Goitom said. "We have already seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what will happen next."

The fighting has already spread beyond Tigray's borders. Clashes have erupted in Afar region. In Addis Ababa, the capital, explosions were heard near the headquarters of Ethiopia's military. Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper in the city, had felt distant from the conflict until those blasts shook his neighborhood. "You hear about fighting in Tigray, and it feels far away," he said. "But when you hear about explosions in Addis Ababa, you start asking yourself what will happen next." For him, the economic consequences loomed as large as the violence itself. Bisrat, a college student, voiced a darker fear: that Ethiopia could be sliding toward the kind of all-consuming conflict that has engulfed Sudan since April 2023, displacing millions and creating a humanitarian catastrophe.

The current fighting involves far more actors than the 2020-22 war. The TPLF is now part of a broader opposition alliance that includes armed groups from multiple regions. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated sharply. The Ethiopian government accused Eritrea of interfering in its internal affairs and supporting opposition forces. Eritrea denied the charges. On Thursday, Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs closed its embassy in Asmara and declared ten Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, citing threats to national security. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic relations entirely. The rupture raised the prospect of a conflict that could acquire a wider regional dimension.

For the federal government, the capture of Mekelle represents a significant step toward restoring control over Tigray. Abraham Belay, former president of the Tigray Interim Administration, said on Sunday that preparations were underway to establish a new interim administration and hold regional elections within months. "We are working to establish a new administrative structure that will enable the people of Tigray to govern themselves," he said. The competing visions—the federal government seeking to restore authority and establish a new regional administration, the TPLF insisting its forces would continue fighting from other positions—leave the next phase deeply uncertain.

For people who lived through the last war, the return of fighting has reopened wounds that had barely begun to heal. Berihu spoke for many when he said simply: "We have already suffered enough. We just want peace. We don't want to go through the same thing again." Whether that wish can be granted depends on decisions being made in places far from Mekelle, in rooms where the calculus of power and survival still outweighs the exhaustion of ordinary people.