In the highlands of northern Ethiopia, the Tigray People's Liberation Front has withdrawn from Mekelle, the regional capital it long governed, as federal forces advance in a conflict that has reignited after a fragile peace held for barely four years. The TPLF, now allied with six other armed factions in an explicit bid to unseat Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, framed its retreat as a measure to protect civilians — though the gesture offers little comfort to a region still carrying the wounds of a war that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives. What began as a broken ceasefire has grown into something
Ethiopian rebels withdraw from Tigray capital as fighting intensifies
The previous 2022 civil war killed an estimated 600,000 people; current humanitarian access is severely disrupted by renewed fighting.
After years of recovery, Tigray faces the prospect of being pulled back into crisis.
Mark
So the TPLF just gave up the capital? That seems like a major loss.
Mimi
They say it was tactical—they withdrew to protect civilians from the fighting moving into the city. But yes, it means federal forces now control Mekelle, which is symbolically and strategically significant.
Luke
We should be careful here. The TPLF's stated reason is about civilian safety. Two residents told the BBC that government forces control the city now. But we don't have independent confirmation of how much territory changed hands or the actual military situation on the ground.
Mark
Why did the fighting start again? I thought there was a peace deal in 2022.
Mimi
There was—the Pretoria Agreement. But over six months, both sides accused each other of violating it. Then last month the TPLF joined with six other armed groups, including Fano from Amhara, to form an alliance explicitly aimed at removing the Prime Minister.
Luke
That's the key pivot. The TPLF didn't just resume fighting—it escalated by forming a coalition with other groups. That's a different kind of conflict than what came before.
Mark
How bad was the first war?
Mimi
Catastrophic. The African Union's mediator estimated 600,000 deaths. It drove the region toward famine. People spent four years trying to rebuild.
Luke
That number—600,000—comes from the AU mediator's estimate. It's the most widely cited figure, but it's one estimate. The actual toll may never be fully known.
Mark
And now neighboring countries are getting involved?
Mimi
Ethiopia has accused both Eritrea and Egypt of supporting the rebels. It severed ties with Eritrea and expelled an Egyptian diplomat. Cairo responded by ordering an Ethiopian official out.
Luke
Those are serious moves, but they're also claims and counterclaims. Eritrea denied the accusation. We don't have independent verification of who is actually supporting whom, just the accusations and the diplomatic responses.
Mark
What happens next?
Mimi
There's a diplomatic meeting scheduled in Egypt on Sunday with regional leaders. But the UN is already warning that humanitarian access is being severely disrupted. This could get much worse very quickly.
The Pulse
- Federal troops have taken control of Mekelle after the TPLF vacated the city, marking the most dramatic territorial shift since fighting resumed across northern Ethiopia.
- The conflict has expanded far beyond Tigray, now engulfing the Afar and Amhara regions and drawing in a seven-group rebel alliance that has declared its intent to remove the prime minister from power.
- Ethiopia has severed ties with Eritrea and expelled an Egyptian diplomat, while Egypt retaliated in kind — signs that a domestic crisis is rapidly pulling regional powers into its orbit.
- The United Nations has sounded the alarm over collapsing humanitarian access across northern Ethiopia, where aid networks are being severed just as a population still recovering from near-famine faces renewed displacement.
- The United States has called for restraint and convened emergency diplomatic talks in Egypt, but the pace of escalation on the ground is outrunning the pace of diplomacy at the table.
In the highlands of northern Ethiopia, the Tigray People's Liberation Front has withdrawn from Mekelle, the regional capital it long governed, as federal forces advance in a conflict that has reignited after a fragile peace held for barely four years. The TPLF, now allied with six other armed factions in an explicit bid to unseat Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, framed its retreat as a measure to protect civilians — though the gesture offers little comfort to a region still carrying the wounds of a war that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives. What began as a broken ceasefire has grown into something larger and more dangerous, drawing in neighboring states and testing whether the Horn of Africa can absorb yet another unraveling.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front announced this week that it had pulled its forces from Mekelle, the regional capital it had long controlled, as federal troops and allied militias closed in. Two residents confirmed to the BBC that government forces now held the city; one noted that mobile networks had begun flickering back to life — a fragile signal of order returning to a place that has known precious little of it.
The TPLF described the withdrawal as a measure to protect civilians from spreading violence, but the move marks a profound shift. After four years of uneasy quiet following a civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people, the fighting has returned — and it has grown. The conflict now spans not only Tigray but the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara, and last month the TPLF took a decisive turn: it joined six other armed groups, including the Fano militia, in a formal alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. Negotiation, it seems, has been set aside.
The 2022 Pretoria Agreement that ended the last war was meant to hold. Over the past six months, mutual accusations of violations eroded whatever trust had been built, and the ceasefire has now fully collapsed. The international community has responded with alarm — the United States called for dialogue and convened emergency talks in Egypt — but diplomacy is struggling to keep pace with events on the ground.
The regional dimensions are deepening. Ethiopia severed diplomatic ties with Eritrea, accusing it of backing the rebel alliance. It also expelled an Egyptian diplomat on similar grounds; Egypt responded by ordering an Ethiopian official to leave. What began as an internal conflict is drawing in outside powers. The United Nations has warned that humanitarian access across northern Ethiopia is severely disrupted, threatening a population that has barely begun to recover from the last catastrophe. The fall of Mekelle is not a conclusion — it is the opening of a new and heavier chapter.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front announced this week that it had pulled its forces out of Mekelle, the regional capital it has governed, as federal troops and their allies closed in on the city. Two residents confirmed to the BBC that government forces now held the territory the TPLF had vacated. One said mobile networks had begun working again in parts of Mekelle—a small sign of normalcy returning to a place that had known little of it.
The TPLF framed the withdrawal as a precaution to shield civilians from the fighting that has been spreading across Ethiopia's northern regions over the past several weeks. The conflict has drawn in federal government forces, allied militias, and now involves not just Tigray but also the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. The shift is significant: after four years of relative quiet following a devastating civil war, the guns have returned to a landscape still scarred by the last round of violence.
That earlier war, which ended in 2022 when African Union mediators brokered a ceasefire, killed an estimated 600,000 people. The fighting had pushed the region toward famine and left deep wounds. The agreement that stopped it, known as the Pretoria Agreement, was meant to hold. But over the past six months, both sides have accused each other of breaking its terms. The trust that had been painstakingly built has crumbled.
Last month, the TPLF took a dramatic step: it joined forces with six other armed groups, including the Fano militia from Amhara, to form an alliance explicitly aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. The move signaled that the TPLF no longer saw negotiation as the path forward. It also widened the conflict beyond a regional dispute into something that threatened the stability of the entire Horn of Africa.
The international response has been swift and alarmed. The United States called for restraint and dialogue, and scheduled a diplomatic meeting in Egypt for Sunday with leaders from neighboring countries. But even as diplomats prepared to talk, the region was fracturing along new lines. Ethiopia severed diplomatic relations with Eritrea after accusing it of backing the rebel alliance—a charge Eritrea denied. Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat, claiming Cairo was supporting the rebels; Egypt responded by ordering an Ethiopian official to leave. These tit-for-tat moves suggested that what had begun as an internal conflict was beginning to pull in outside powers.
The humanitarian toll is mounting in real time. The United Nations warned that the fighting is severely disrupting aid work across northern Ethiopia and called on all sides to allow unobstructed access to people in need. After years of recovery from a war that had nearly destroyed the region, Tigray faces the prospect of being pulled back into crisis. The withdrawal from Mekelle is not an end to the fighting—it is a new chapter in it, one that carries the weight of everything that came before.
Notable Quotes
The TPLF said its decision to relocate was made because of concerns about risks to civilians.— TPLF statement
The US Department of State called for restraint and dialogue on all sides.— US Department of State
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